Melissa: Max Scherzer is sitting on a career-altering decision. The Blue Jays are reeling from a sweep in Baltimore, and the injury report looks like a phone book. This is the Beatline Podcast Network.
Ryan: I’m Ryan. We’ve got the full preview of the Cincinnati series, the state of the bullpen, and that Scherzer news everyone is waiting for.
Melissa: And I’m Melissa. Coming up: we break down the pitching matchup against the Reds, look at who’s actually healthy enough to play, and finally, what Scherzer might say. Let’s get into it.
Ryan: So, we predicted a sweep here two days ago, Melissa. And... well, the Orioles delivered. Four-two in the first game, four-two in the second. Pete Alonso with forty-one homers, Chris Bassitt shutting it down early. It was a tough way to go out.
Melissa: It stings, Ryan. But we’re looking forward now. Tonight, the Blue Jays host the Cincinnati Reds. Final regular season home stand. What’s the story here?
Ryan: Well, the story is survival. The rotation is decimated. Shane Bieber is on the fifteen-day IL. Kyle Bradish is out for the season on the sixty-day list. Max Scherzer? He just said he’ll have an announcement about his future in the next couple of days.
Melissa: That’s huge. So who’s taking the mound tonight? Is it Jose Soriano or CJ Van Eyk?
Ryan: It’s likely one of those two, or maybe Trey Yesavage. The point is, you aren’t getting your ace. You’re getting whoever is left. And against the Reds, you need someone who can keep the ball in the park. Cincinnati has power. They don’t need much.
Melissa: Right. And we know the Blue Jays’ defense isn’t exactly pristine right now. With injuries everywhere, are they playing their starters, or are we seeing a lot of call-ups?
Ryan: We’re seeing a mix. Brett Bateman is day-to-day. Blaze Alexander is on the ten-day IL. Luis Robert Jr. is also on the ten-day IL. It’s a patchwork roster. The ABS challenge system tracker shows teams are being more cautious with challenges now, but the Jays don’t have the depth to waste them.
Melissa: It’s a different baseball than the one we saw when Dylan Cease returned from injury last week. Remember, Ryan? We talked about plate discipline then. How does that translate to this Reds series?
Ryan: Plate discipline is everything when you’re facing mediocre pitching. If the Jays can work the count, force the Reds’ relievers to throw strikes, they can win. But if they chase early, they’re dead. The launch angle data suggests the Jays have been popping balls hard, but only when they make contact.
Melissa: Speaking of making contact, let’s talk about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He’s standing by his comments about his contract extension. Forty-year-old money on a young guy’s shoulders. How does he look today?
Ryan: He looks like Vladimir. He’s still the anchor. But remember, he had that back issue earlier in the series against Baltimore. If he’s not at one hundred percent, his OBP drops. And without him driving in runs, who’s carrying the load?
Melissa: That’s where we need to go next. Who else is hitting? And can this bullpen survive another eight innings?
Melissa: Before we dive into the lineup, I want to take a quick breath. Our daily research, editing, and keeping this feed running every single day takes a lot of coffee. A small tip helps us keep the show free for all of you. Check the link in the episode description to grab a cup and support the network.
Ryan: Thanks, Melissa. Okay, let’s look at the bats. George Springer is listed as DH. Davis Schneider in left. Nathan Lukes in right. Myles Straw in center. Brett Bateman is day-to-day, so if he’s out, Straw starts. That’s a defensive upgrade, but less power.
Melissa: And Alejandro Kirk behind the plate. Remember our prediction from three days ago? Ryan, you picked Kirk for two hits. He didn’t quite deliver against Baltimore, did he?
Ryan: He didn’t. But context matters. He was dealing with a bruised finger from the first game of that doubleheader. Against the Reds, if he’s healthy, he’s still the best catcher in the league at handling a struggling pitching staff. His framing alone saves runs.
Melissa: Let’s talk about the bullpen. Paul Sewald is there. Brendan Cellucci, Chad Dallas, Braydon Fisher. It’s a long list. Who do you trust in the ninth?
Ryan: Sewald. He’s the closer. But if he’s tired, you go to Louis Varland or Mason Fluharty. The issue is platoon splits. If the Reds start a bunch of left-handed hitters, you might be forced to use a right-hander like Tyler Rogers in a high-leverage spot. That’s bad baseball.
Melissa: And what about the injuries? We mentioned Bateman, Alexander, Robert Jr., Santander, Mountcastle, O'Neill, Clase. That’s half the roster gone. How does a team manage this late in September?
Ryan: You rest guys. You promote prospects. You rely on veterans like Ernie Clement and Andres Gimenez to hold it down at second and short. But defensively, you’re vulnerable. One bad hop, one error, and the game is over.
Melissa: It’s a lot of pressure on Sean Keys and Kazuma Okamoto in the middle of the infield. Can they handle the load?
Ryan: They can. Okamoto has the power. Keys has the patience. But they need protection. If Vladimir isn’t driving in runs, these guys are exposed. It’s a chain reaction.
Melissa: Okay, let’s pivot to the big news. Max Scherzer. He said he’ll have something to say in the next couple of days. What are we hearing?
Ryan: Everyone is speculating. Retirement? Trade? Free agency? Given his age and the physical toll, retirement seems likely. But he’s a competitor. He might stay for one more year if he feels he can still dominate.
Melissa: If he retires, what does that mean for the Jays? They’re already rebuilding. Do they move on completely?
Ryan: It means they accelerate the rebuild. They promote CJ Van Eyk or Trey Yesavage to fill the gap. It’s painful, but necessary. The Jays are 77-82. They’re fifth in the AL East. The window is closed.
Melissa: So, keys to the series. What do the Blue Jays need to do to beat the Reds tonight and tomorrow?
Ryan: One thing: Pitching efficiency. If their starter goes six innings, they have a chance. If he goes four, it’s over. Control the strike zone. Don’t give up easy bases.
Melissa: And offensively?
Ryan: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. needs to drive in runs. If he gets on base and doesn’t score, the pressure builds. He needs to hit behind the runners.
Melissa: Bold prediction time. Ryan, you predicted a Reds sweep earlier. Are you sticking with that?
Ryan: I am. I think the Jays are too broken. The injuries are too many. The morale is too low. I predict a Reds sweep. Two games. Clean.
Melissa: Ouch. I disagree. I think the Jays will snap out of it. Home field advantage. Final series. I see them winning one game. Maybe splitting. But a sweep? No way.
Ryan: We’ll see. But I’m betting on the injury report.
Melissa: There you have it. Scherzer’s future hangs in the balance, the Jays face a tough Reds series, and the injury list is longer than our script. Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network.
Ryan: Subscribe, rate, and review wherever you get your podcasts. Share this episode with a friend who loves the Jays.
Melissa: Go Jays Go! See you tomorrow.