Nicole: That was Lazaro Montes leading off the ninth with a 426-foot bomb to steal a 5-4 win on Friday night. But tonight? The Mariners are down 3-1 in this series after Cole Carrigg’s go-ahead two-run single pushed them to the absolute verge of elimination against the Rockies. This is Beatline, the daily podcast that never sleeps.
Kevin: It’s a do-or-die situation for Seattle. They’re sitting at 72-83, third in the AL West, and if they don’t win tonight, their postseason hopes might just be gone. We’ve got the full breakdown coming up.
Nicole: I’m Nicole, and I’m here with Kevin. Tonight, we’re looking at the pitching matchup, the injuries that are crippling this roster, and what needs to happen for Julio Rodriguez and company to keep their season alive. Before we get into it, quick favor for the show.
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Kevin: We appreciate it. Now, let’s talk baseball. Yesterday, we predicted a split, but those predictions are burning up fast. We need a win tonight to stay relevant in this race.
Nicole: So, Kevin, we talked about the rotation yesterday. Who is starting tonight for Seattle, and how does that look compared to Colorado?
Kevin: This is tricky. With Bryce Miller likely used yesterday or earlier in the stretch, and Logan Gilbert having thrown recently, I’m expecting George Kirby to take the mound. He’s been the most consistent arm in the bunch when the team actually has him healthy. But looking at the Rockies’ lineup, they’ve been feasting on left-handed pitching lately.
Nicole: Wait, did you say Kirby is starting? Isn’t he usually more of a workhorse starter? And isn’t the Rockies' offense really weak right now? They’re 56-98, fifth in the NL West. Shouldn't we be confident?
Kevin: Confidence is good, but context matters. Coors Field is an offensive playground. Even a mediocre pitcher can give up runs there. The Rockies might be bad overall, but they score runs at home. Kirby has great control, but if he leaves one up in the zone, it gets crushed. That’s the risk.
Nicole: Right, and we saw that yesterday. Carrigg hit that two-run single in the seventh. The Mariners couldn’t hold the lead. What about the bullpen? Is Seranthony Dominguez going to be available tonight?
Kevin: Dominguz is listed as a reliever, but with the injury list we have, usage patterns change. We know Andres Munoz is the closer, but he might be saved for Game Four if this goes to a winner-take-all scenario. For tonight, expect Hoby Milner or Michael Rucker to handle the late innings.
Nicole: Milner has been solid in setup roles. But if Kirby struggles early, do we burn through the bullpen faster than we want? That’s the fear, right?
Kevin: Absolutely. If Kirby doesn’t get to six innings, you’re looking at a very thin relief corps. You’ve got Cooper Criswell and Eduard Bazardo, but are they ready for high-leverage spots? It’s a gamble. The Mariners need Kirby to attack the strike zone and induce ground balls, not fly outs.
Nicole: Ground balls. Yes. At Coors, keeping the ball on the ground is everything. Okay, so we have the pitching puzzle. Let’s shift to the other side of the ball. The offense. Yesterday, Lazaro Montes had that huge homer. Are they riding hot hand today?
Kevin: Montes is definitely getting looks. But the core has to step up. Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor. We mentioned them yesterday, and they need to deliver again. Naylor has been excellent against lefties, which is crucial if the Rockies start a lefty.
Nicole: And Cal Raleigh behind the plate. His framing and his power are vital. If the pitchers are struggling, Cal can lift the team. But remember, we’re dealing with a massive injury list. How many guys are actually available to play tonight?
Kevin: It’s decimated. You’ve got Chase Dollander, Pierson Ohl, Emerson Hancock, Cole Wilcox—all on IL. On the infield, Will Wilson is out. Brendan Donovan is on the 7-day IL too. It’s basically who is left standing.
Nicole: Wow. So we’re relying heavily on the guys like Jhonny Pereda at catcher if Cal needs a break, and maybe Brock Rodden or Weston Wilson filling in corners. It’s a patchwork job.
Kevin: Exactly. It’s not about depth anymore; it’s about durability. If Rodriguez can stay healthy and produce, he carries the load. But he can’t do it alone. Dominic Canzone and Taylor Ward need to contribute from the DH spot.
Nicole: Okay, that sets the stage. Pitching is a gamble, defense is stretched, and the offense has to be perfect. Let’s move to Segment Two. We need to talk about the specific matchups. Who is the Rockies’ starter, and how does that affect our hitters?
Kevin: The brief doesn’t specify the Rockies’ probable starter by name, but given their record, it’s likely someone from their lower-tier rotation. The key here is platoon splits. If the Rockies start a lefty, Naylor becomes even more valuable. If they start a righty, we look to Arozarena and Rodriguez.
Nicole: Arozarena has been inconsistent lately. His launch angle has been all over the place. Do we trust him to drive the ball against a struggling Rockies’ staff, or is he a liability?
Kevin: I’d say he’s a liability if he doesn’t adjust. He needs to lay off the low pitches and wait for the middle-inning heater. Plate discipline is key. If he chases, he strikes out. If he waits, he hits extra-base hits. It’s binary.
Nicole: Binary outcomes. High risk, high reward. What about Victor Robles in right field? He provides speed. If the Rockies are playing deep because of the power threat, can Robles exploit gaps?
Kevin: Speed is always useful, especially in Coors Field where the outfield is deep. But you need the ball in play first. Robles can’t steal bases if he’s striking out. It comes back to the top of the order. If Rodriguez and Naylor get on base, Robles becomes a nightmare for the defense.
Nicole: So the strategy is clear: feed Julio and Josh. Get them going. Then let the rest of the lineup capitalize. But what about the bullpen match-ups? If the game goes to extra innings, who is in the pen?
Kevin: If it goes long, Gabe Speier or Carlos Vargas might see action. But honestly, I hope it doesn’t go that far. The Mariners don’t have the stamina for a nine-inning grind plus extras with this roster. They need to finish it in seven.
Nicole: Seven innings. Perfect execution. No errors, no blown saves. It’s a lot to ask. Let’s pivot to Segment Three. Keys to the series. If the Mariners win tonight, what happens next? Do they get a day off? Or do they play Game Four immediately?
Kevin: They’ll likely play Game Four. If they win tonight, they force a decisive game. The schedule is tight. There’s no day off. That means the starters need to be rested, and the bullpen needs to manage its workload carefully.
Nicole: Rest is a luxury they don’t have. So, bold prediction time. We said yesterday they would split the series. We were wrong on the first game outcome, but we still think they can win tonight. Do you agree?
Kevin: I agree they can win tonight. But I’m skeptical about splitting the series. I think they win tonight, lose tomorrow, and miss the playoffs. It’s harsh, but the injury list is too heavy to sustain a three-game sweep or even a split against a desperate Rockies team.
Nicole: Ouch. Losing tomorrow? That’s a tough pill to swallow. But hey, one game at a time. Tonight is about survival. What is the one thing you need to see from Julio Rodriguez to feel optimistic?
Kevin: Multiple hits. We predicted that yesterday, and I stand by it. If Julio gets two hits, including an extra-base hit, he sets the tone. He needs to be the anchor. If he’s quiet, the whole house of cards collapses.
Nicole: Two hits from Julio. Got it. And for the fans listening, if you want to support this show and keep these daily previews coming, remember to check the link in the episode description. Your support keeps us going.
Kevin: Thanks for listening. Go Mariners. Win tonight, and we’ll talk again tomorrow.
Nicole: Subscribe, rate, and review Beatline wherever you get your podcasts. Share this episode with a friend who needs some Mariners news. See you tomorrow!