Jessica: You are looking at a team that just finished first in the National League West with a 91-71 record, only to watch their season end on the road against the Brewers who took the series three games to one. That is the cruel, beautiful, heartbreaking paradox of baseball.
Mark: It’s the definition of a job well done that didn’t quite go far enough. We broke down the rotation issues yesterday, we talked about the catcher battles today, and now we’re putting it all into a hard power ranking for the 2027 offseason.
Jessica: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, America's number one daily sports podcast. I’m Jessica, and I’m here with Mark. Today we are ranking the San Diego Padres heading into the hottest part of the winter stove league. Ava, what are we covering?
Ava: We’ve got three big things coming up. First, where the Padres actually stand in the division after that 91-win season. Second, the massive questions surrounding the starting pitching staff after declining options on Pivetta, Giolito, and Canning. And third, a realistic outlook on whether they can hit that 98-win projection for next year.
Jessica: Let’s get right into it. The regular season is over. The Milwaukee Brewers swept them in the NLDS, but let’s talk about the regular season body of work. Where do you put this club in your divisional rankings right now, Mark?
Mark: If we are talking strictly about regular season performance and roster construction, the Padres are firmly in the top tier of the NL West. A 91-71 record isn't just good; it’s consistent. It shows that despite the injuries, the core is built to win ninety-plus games.
Jessica: But consistency doesn't always translate to October dominance, does it? You saw what happened in that final series. The Brewers were just sharper.
Mark: Exactly. But if you look at the depth chart, the Padres have more tools than any other team in that division. You have Xander Bogaerts anchoring shortstop, Manny Machado on third base, and Jackson Merrill emerging as a five-tool force in center field. That infield defense alone gives them an edge in tight games.
Jessica: And you can’t ignore the bullpen. Mason Miller has been electric. When he’s locked in, he’s arguably the best closer in the game. But how does that bullpen hold up when you need seven innings of relief from the starters?
Mark: That’s the rub. That’s why they might rank second or third in the *playoff* hierarchy, even if they are first in the division standings. The Brewers had that extra pop. But for a power ranking based on 162 games, the Padres are elite. They are a nine-game better team than whoever sits in second place in that West.
Jessica: So, Top Two in the division. Maybe Top Three in the National League overall. Is that fair? Or do you think the loss to Milwaukee drops them further in the broader pecking order?
Mark: I think Top Five in the NL is accurate. They have the talent. They just lacked the late-inning starting pitching depth to close out the series. But don't discount the 91 wins. In a league full of inconsistencies, that floor is incredibly high.
Jessica: Alright, let’s pivot to the biggest question mark on this roster. The headlines are screaming about free agency decisions. The Padres declined options on Nick Pivetta, Lucas Giolito, and Griffin Canning, while exercising Kyle Hart.
Mark: This is a massive shakeup. You are essentially clearing out the middle of the rotation. Pivetta, Giolito, and Canning represented three different types of arms, and by letting them walk, you are opening the door for internal competition or external acquisition.
Jessica: And remember, this comes on top of eight players being on the 60-Day IL list at various points, including Rodolfo Duran, Jacob Misiorowski, and Quinn Priester. The health concerns are real.
Mark: Right. So when you look at the strengths, it’s clearly the lineup. Luis Campusano behind the plate provides stability, and having Miguel Andujar or Will Wagner as DH options adds power. But the weakness? It’s the rotation depth. Who starts Game One of the ALDS if Joe Musgrove isn't there?
Jessica: We talked about Michael King and Sonny Gray becoming free agents. Those were two names we mentioned yesterday as potential targets. Do you see the Padres going after another veteran starter, like we predicted?
Mark: I absolutely do. We said it yesterday, and I stand by it. They need a proven arm. You can’t rely solely on Randy Vasquez or Hunter Stratton to anchor a playoff run. The front office has to make a move to add a veteran starter to a one-year deal to stabilize the top of the rotation.
Jessica: What about the catchers? Freddy Fermin and Ethan Salas are still in the mix. How much does that internal battle impact the overall strength of the team?
Mark: It’s manageable. As long as you have one competent catcher, the offense carries the team. The bigger issue is the pitchers. If the bullpen has to work too many innings because the starters go six innings max, the fatigue sets in. That’s how you lose series like you did to Milwaukee.
Jessica: So, the strength is the everyday lineup—Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis Jr., Merrill. The weakness is the back-end of the rotation and the uncertainty of the free agent market.
Mark: Precisely. It’s a high-ceiling, high-variance team. If the rotation holds up, they are a World Series contender. If it fractures, they are just another 91-win team that falls short.
Jessica: Let’s wrap up our analysis with the outlook. You mentioned a 98-win projection earlier. Given the current roster and the likely changes, do you think that’s achievable?
Mark: I do. Here is why. The core pieces—Bogaerts, Machado, Tatis, Merrill—are entering their prime years. The development of guys like Jackson Merrill and the defensive upgrades at second base with Jake Cronenworth provide a solid foundation. If they sign that one veteran starter, the ceiling jumps significantly.
Jessica: And the bullpen? With Mason Miller locking down the ninth, and guys like Jhony Brito and Bradgley Rodriguez providing setup help, is that a strength moving forward?
Mark: Yes, the bullpen is a strength. It’s one of the few areas where they won’t need to improve. In fact, they might be able to trade from there if needed. But the starting pitching is the key. Get a reliable number two or three starter, and those 98 wins become very real.
Jessica: So, the prediction stands? 98 wins, and they reach the NLCS?
Mark: I’m sticking with it. The talent is there. The infrastructure is there. It just needs that one missing piece in the rotation to click. If they miss on that, the projections drop. But if they hit on a veteran arm, this team is dangerous.
Jessica: Dangerous is exactly what San Diego needs to be. We’ve ranked them, we’ve broken down the strengths and weaknesses, and we’ve projected a bounce-back season. But before we send you off into the weekend, I want to talk about something important.
Jessica: Every day, my team and I are grinding to bring you these fresh, deep-dive episodes for every single MLB team. It takes a lot of coffee, a lot of research, and a lot of passion. And honestly, it takes a community of supporters who believe in keeping this show free and accessible for everyone.
Mark: It’s not just about the ads, Jessica. It’s about the people who chip in directly. Your support allows us to keep the quality high and the frequency daily. If you enjoy these breakdowns, please check out the link in the episode description to join the conversation.
Jessica: Whether you can contribute or not, thank you for listening. Now, let’s recap. The Padres are a top-tier NL West team with a 91-71 record, led by a star-studded lineup but in need of a veteran starter to push for 98 wins next season.
Mark: They have the tools. They have the talent. Now they just need to fill the holes in the rotation. If they do that, the 2027 season could be special.
Jessica: Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen to podcasts. Share this episode with a fellow Padre fan. Until next time, keep your eyes on the hot stove.
Mark: Go Padres.