Jessica: That eighth-inning robbery by Garrett Mitchell wasn’t just a highlight; it was the sound of the San Diego season ending. The Brewers are in the NLCS, and we’re left with the quiet aftermath of a 91-win team that fell short.
Mark: It’s a brutal reality check. We talked about this rotation shortage yesterday and the day before, but seeing it play out against Milwaukee makes the roster construction questions even sharper. We have to look at who is actually on this team right now.
Jessica: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network. I’m Jessica, and with me as always is Mark. Today is a Roster Battles episode. With the playoffs over, we’re looking at the depth chart for next year. We’ve got three things coming up: the catcher dilemma, the infield logjam, and our final cuts for the 40-man roster.
Mark: Exactly. And remember, we predicted last week that they’d prioritize starting pitching in free agency. That’s still true, but today we’re focusing on the internal battles. Who stays? Who goes? Let’s dive into Segment One.
Jessica: Let’s start behind the plate. Luis Campusano has been the starter, but Freddy Fermin and Ethan Salas are there. Given the defensive metrics and Fermin’s arm, do you think Campusano’s role is secure heading into spring training?
Mark: I think it’s competitive, but not necessarily in danger. Campusano provides offensive upside that Fermin doesn’t. However, if the team wants to maximize defensive value, Fermin is a strong option. Salas is more of a developmental project right now.
Jessica: Right, but offensively, Campusano needs to hit consistently. If he slumps, Fermin’s glove could tip the scales. Do you see them keeping all three?
Mark: Unlikely. They’ll probably carry two catchers on the active roster. If Campusano doesn’t improve his contact rate, Fermin might be the one making the club. Salas will likely stay in the minors unless there’s an injury.
Jessica: So, a platoon or a clear number one? I feel like Fermin’s presence complicates things for Campusano.
Mark: It does. But in baseball, offense usually wins ties. Unless Campusano’s defense becomes a liability, he gets the nod. Fermin is the insurance policy.
Jessica: Fair point. Let’s move to the infield. You’ve got Xander Bogaerts at short, Jake Cronenworth at second, Ty France at first, and Manny Machado at third. It’s a star-studded lineup, but where’s the competition?
Mark: The competition is really at second base and third base depth. Mason McCoy and Sung-Mun Song are pushing for utility roles. Ty France and Gavin Sheets are battling for first-base reps when Machado needs a rest.
Jessica: Machanio playing first occasionally changes the dynamic. Does that help France’s case?
Mark: It helps everyone stay healthy. But France’s bat is better suited for first base. If he can’t handle the position defensively, they might look elsewhere. Gage Workman is also in the mix at third.
Jessica: So the stars are set, but the bench is tight. That’s the story of this infield.
Mark: Precisely. It’s a luxury problem, but a problem nonetheless. You want depth, but you don’t want to clog the system with players who aren’t ready.
Jessica: Let’s talk about the outfield. Jackson Merrill in center, Fernando Tatis Jr. in right, and then Jase Bowen, Dustin Harris, and Samad Taylor for the other spots. Who stands out?
Mark: Merrill is the future. He’s playing every day. Tatis is the star, but his health is always a question. The battle is between Bowen, Harris, and Taylor for that third spot.
Jessica: Bowen had some nice plays in the postseason. Do you think he holds the edge?
Mark: He does. His versatility and recent performance give him the advantage. Harris and Taylor need to show more consistency in camp.
Jessica: Okay, so we’ve got the position battles. Now let’s look at the pitching staff. This is where the injuries hit hard. Lucas Giolito, Brandon Woodruff, Bryan Hoeing, Angel Zerpa, Quinn Priester, Brian Fitzpatrick—all on the 60-day IL. Grant Anderson is on the 15-day.
Mark: It’s a mess. Walker Buehler, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Casey Mize, Nick Pivetta, JP Sears, Randy Vasquez—that’s your entire rotation. There’s no depth. If one guy gets hurt, you’re exposed.
Jessica: And the bullpen? Jason Adam, Mason Miller, Jhony Brito, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Kyle Hart, Garrett Hawkins, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Bradgley Rodriguez, Hunter Stratton.
Mark: The bullpen is loaded, but it’s a workhorse situation. Mason Miller is the closer, but he’s only back from paternity leave recently. Adam and Brito are key setup men. The rest are high-leverage arms.
Jessica: So the rotation is the weak link. That confirms what we said yesterday. The Dodgers are waiting in the NLCS, and the Padres don’t have the arms to match them.
Mark: Without immediate upgrades, it’s an uphill battle. The front office knows this. They have to act.
Jessica: We’ll be right back after this. Stick with us.
Jessica: Welcome back. In Segment Two, we’re looking at two more specific battles: the DH spot and the relief pitcher hierarchy.
Mark: Right. The DH position is interesting. Miguel Andujar, Austin Hays, and Will Wagner are listed there. Andujar is on the 10-day IL, so that opens the door for Hays and Wagner.
Jessica: Hays has been solid. Do you see him taking over the role full-time once Andujar returns?
Mark: Maybe not full-time. A platoon makes sense. Andujar provides power, while Hays offers defense and contact. Wagner is more of a fringe option unless he shows significant improvement.
Jessica: So it’s a balance of power vs. defense. That’s a tough call for the manager.
Mark: It is. But in October, you want power. So Andujar might get the nod when healthy. Hays is the everyday option otherwise.
Jessica: Now, the bullpen hierarchy. Mason Miller is the closer. Jason Adam and Jhony Brito are next. But you’ve got Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, and others. Who earns the save chances?
Mark: Miller is locked in. Adam is the primary setup man. Brito is versatile and can handle high-leverage innings. The rest are situational. Canning has experience, but Estrada and Hart are younger.
Jessica: Does the lack of a clear number two reliever worry you?
Mark: A little. If Adam gets tired, who steps up? Brito can fill in, but you want stability. The bullpen usage will be critical in the playoffs.
Jessica: Speaking of the playoffs, we know the Brewers eliminated the Padres. Garrett Mitchell’s defense was a game-changer. How does that impact the Padres’ view of their own outfield defense?
Mark: It highlights the gap. Mitchell made a pivotal catch on Machado. That’s the level of defense needed. Jackson Merrill is good, but he’s still developing. The Padres need more of that kind of athleticism.
Jessica: So, they’re not just losing games; they’re losing matchups. That’s the reality of the NL West.
Mark: Exactly. The Dodgers are deep. The Brewers are gritty. The Padres are talented but fragile.
Jessica: Before we get to our final segment, we want to take a quick moment to ask for your support. Our show is completely free, with no ads and no paywall. Your contributions are what keep us able to bring you daily analysis without interruption. Please consider chipping in to help us continue this work—it truly means the world to us. You can find the link in the episode description.
Jessica: Welcome back to Segment Three. Let’s make our roster-cut predictions. Who is trending up and who is trending down for the 40-man roster?
Mark: Trending up: Jackson Merrill. He’s the face of the franchise going forward. Also, Mason Miller. His return gives the bullpen a boost. And Luis Campusano, if he hits.
Jessica: Who is trending down?
Mark: Ethan Salas. He’s behind Campusano and Fermin. Also, Will Wagner. He’s a fringe DH. And maybe Austin Hays if Andujar returns healthy.
Jessica: What about the pitchers? Who stays, who goes?
Mark: The starters are mostly safe, except maybe Randy Vasquez if he struggles. The bullpen is crowded. David Morgan and Hunter Stratton might be expendable if they don’t perform.
Jessica: So, the focus is on acquiring starting pitching. We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating.
Mark: Absolutely. Without a fifth starter who can eat innings, the rotation is too thin. They need to address this in free agency or via trade.
Jessica: Our prediction: The Padres will sign a veteran starter to a one-year deal to provide depth. And they’ll keep Fermin over Salas.
Mark: I agree. And they’ll hope Machado stays healthy. That’s the biggest variable.
Jessica: Well, that wraps up our roster battles analysis. Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network.
Mark: Remember, subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen. And go Padres!