Jessica: You will not believe what Garrett Mitchell just did to the Padres' season.
Mark: I know you're talking about that eighth-inning play. It was a game-ender.
Jessica: It was more than that. It was Manny Machado driving at the wall, looking like a sure thing, and Mitchell turning it into an out. That’s the moment the Brewers took control. Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, I’m Jessica Martinez.
Mark: And I’m Mark Sullivan. We are back in San Diego, fresh off a heartbreaking NLDS exit. The Padres finished strong with a 91-71 record, taking the NL West, but the postseason ended in Milwaukee.
Jessica: Today is our mailbag episode. We’re diving straight into the fallout of that Game 4 loss, the massive injury list we’ve been tracking for days, and where this team goes from here. We’ve got three big segments: first, your questions on that Mitchell robbery and the pitching staff; second, the roster battles for next year; and third, a lightning round of quick takes.
Mark: We’re going to look at the facts. No speculation, just what we know from the roster, the injuries, and the stats. Let’s get into it.
Jessica: Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Sarah from San Diego writes in: 'Can someone explain why the offense couldn't score against the Brewers? Was it just Mitchell's defense or was the pitching bad?' Great question, Sarah.
Mark: Well, Sarah, it wasn’t just one thing. The final score was 3-1. The Padres were held to one run. But if you look at the context, the Brewers advanced to the NLCS rematch with the Dodgers. They played tight. The Padres had chances, including that eighth inning with Machado.
Jessica: Right. And Mason Miller was available for that Game 4 after returning from the paternity list to witness the birth of his first child. He was ready to close it out. But before he could get there, Garrett Mitchell tripled in the fifth, scored the tiebreaking run, and then made that catch.
Mark: Exactly. So when Sarah asks about the pitching, she’s right to point to Miller. He was available. But the damage was done earlier. The rotation didn’t hold the line. And remember, we’ve talked about this injury list for days. Lucas Giolito is out 60 days. Brandon Woodruff is out 60 days. Grant Anderson is on the 15-day IL. Quinn Priester is out 60 days. Angel Zerpa is out 60 days. Brian Fitzpatrick is out 60 days.
Jessica: That is a devastating list for a playoff push. David from Denver asks: 'Who is actually left in the rotation to start next year? Is Walker Buehler enough?' This is the core issue we’ve been predicting all week.
Mark: David, it’s not just Buehler. You have Joe Musgrove. You have Michael King. You have Casey Mize. You have Nick Pivetta. You have JP Sears. You have Randy Vasquez. That’s seven starters. But none of them are guaranteed health. And none of them are proven playoff closers in the traditional sense except maybe the bullpen arms like Jason Adam and Jhony Brito.
Jessica: So the answer is yes, they have bodies. But do they have depth? No. That’s why we predicted last week that the Padres would prioritize acquiring starting pitching through free agency. They need a number two or three starter who can eat innings when Giolito and Woodruff aren't there.
Mark: And let’s be clear about the bullpen. It’s loaded. Mason Miller is the closer. Jason Adam is elite. Jhony Brito, Griffin Canning, Jeremiah Estrada, Kyle Hart, Garrett Hawkins, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta, Bradgley Rodriguez, Hunter Stratton. That’s twelve relievers. But you can’t win a series with only a bullpen.
Jessica: @PadresFan88 in LA asks: 'Did the Brewers just beat us because they’re better, or because we collapsed?' Honest question. Was it talent or execution?
Mark: It’s both. The Brewers are good. They advanced to the NLCS. But the collapse happened because of specific moments. Mitchell’s triple. His catch. Those are high-leverage plays. The Padres had the lineup. Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. Manny Machado at third. Fernando Tatis Jr. in right field. Jackson Merrill in center. They had the power.
Jessica: But power doesn’t always translate to runs in small samples. The Brewers’ defense, led by Mitchell, was perfect. And the Padres’ starting pitching couldn’t keep them off the board. It’s a harsh reality check for a 91-71 team.
Mark: Right. And let’s not forget the other injuries. Rodolfo Duran is out 60 days. Miguel Andujar is on the 10-day IL. Ramon Laureano is out 60 days. Bryan Hoeing is out 60 days. This team has been decimated by injury all year.
Jessica: Okay, take a breath. We’re going to pause there. If you found value in breaking down the Mitchell robbery and the injury report, please consider supporting the show. Your contributions help keep these daily, fact-based analyses free for everyone. Just click the link in the episode description to chip in. Thanks for listening.
Mark: Welcome back. Let’s talk roster construction. Kevin from Seattle asks: 'With all these injuries, should the Padres trade for a veteran starter or sign a free agent?' This is the million-dollar question.
Jessica: Kevin, we’ve said it before: the Padres need depth. Trading for a veteran might mean giving up prospects. Signing a free agent means spending money. Which path do you think they take?
Mark: I think they sign. Why? Because they have the payroll flexibility. Look at the roster. They have Luis Campusano and Freddy Fermin behind the plate. Ethan Salas too. They have Jake Cronenworth at second base. Ty France at first. Xander Bogaerts at short. Manny Machado at third. They don’t need to trade for infielders.
Jessica: Exactly. The infield is set. The catching is set. The outfield has Tatis, Merrill, Austin Hays, Dustin Harris, Samad Taylor, Jase Bowen. They have options. But the rotation is thin. They need arms.
Mark: And look at the DH spot. Miguel Andujar is on the 10-day IL. Austin Hays can play there. Will Wagner can play there. It’s flexible. But the pitching is the bottleneck. Without a healthy Giolito or Woodruff, they’re relying on guys like Michael King and Casey Mize to step up.
Jessica: @SD_Baseball_Nerd asks: 'Is Jackson Merrill worth the hype? He seemed quiet in the playoffs.' A fair critique.
Mark: Quiet doesn’t mean bad. Merrill is a young player. He’s in center field. He’s dealing with pressure. But he’s part of the core. Along with Tatis and Machado, he’s the future. The issue isn’t Merrill. It’s the support around him.
Jessica: Sarah from Chicago asks: 'Should they keep Mason Miller as the closer? He was on the paternity list.'
Mark: Absolutely. Miller is their best arm. He returned for Game 4. He was ready. Paternity leave is important. He came back. That shows loyalty and competitiveness. Keep him as the closer.
Jessica: Okay, let’s move to the final segment. We’ve got a fun hypothetical and a lightning round. First, hypothetical: If the Padres could add ONE starter via free agency, who do they target? Name a real pitcher or describe the profile.
Mark: They need a proven ace. Someone who can go six innings in a playoff game. Not a rookie. Not a rehabbing guy. An established arm. Think of the guys who pitched well for Cleveland or Chicago this year. They need that stability.
Jessica: Agreed. Now, lightning round. Quick takes. Question one: Did the Brewers deserve to advance over the Padres?
Mark: Yes. They won the series. They played better defense. They scored more runs. Simple.
Jessica: Question two: Is Xander Bogaerts still the same player he was five years ago?
Mark: He’s different. Slower. Less explosive. But still effective. Plate discipline remains elite.
Jessica: Question three: Will the Padres make the playoffs again in 2027?
Mark: Yes. We predicted 90-95 wins. They’ll be competitive. But the NLCS against the Dodgers will be tough.
Jessica: There you have it. From the Mitchell robbery to the rotation crisis, we covered it all. Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network.
Mark: Subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen. Share this with a fellow Padre fan.
Jessica: Until next time, Go Padres!