Megan: Jared Jones was on a perfect game into the sixth inning last night, and now he’s back in the rotation to close out this series against St. Louis. But with the bullpen stretched thin and half the roster on IL, can Pittsburgh hold off the Cardinals' desperate push?
Steve: It’s a tough ask, Megan. We talked about the injury list being a nightmare yesterday, and today we’re looking at a team that just lost its five-game winning streak but still holds third in the NL Central. The stakes are real.
Megan: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, I’m Megan O’Neill. Joining me as always is Steve Bartelstein. We’ve got three big things for you today: Jared Jones’ start tonight, how the depleted lineup handles Matthew Liberatore, and our final predictions for this series finale.
Steve: That’s right. We predicted a sweep earlier in the week, then a two-game win after Game Two. Today, we’re breaking down if the Pirates can complete the job against a Cardinals team trying to end their own road skid.
Megan: Let’s dive right into it. First up: the pitching matchup. Jared Jones had that historic performance Tuesday, going seven dominant innings for a 2-0 shutout. Tonight, he faces Matthew Liberatore, who just snapped an 11-start winless streak by winning 5-1 yesterday.
Steve: Right. And Liberatore getting that win feels like a momentum shift for St. Louis, but look at the context. He pitched well, but the Pirates’ offense only managed one run. Jones, on the other hand, allowed just one hit over seven frames. That’s elite stuff.
Megan: Exactly. And remember, Paul Skenes has been dealing with velocity issues all year due to the WBC, so when Jones steps on the mound, it’s crucial. He’s the ace of the moment. Do you think Jones can go deep enough tonight to save the bullpen?
Steve: I hope so. With Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, and Max Rajcic all on the 60-day IL, and several others on shorter stints, every starting pitcher needs to eat innings. If Jones goes six or seven again, it takes massive pressure off guys like Gregory Soto and Kirby Yates.
Megan: Speaking of the bullpen, let’s talk about the rotation depth. We have Bubba Chandler, Khristian Curtis, Antwone Kelly, and Luke Weaver available. Who do you see handling the load if Jones doesn’t get the quality start we need?
Steve: If Jones gets shelled early, it’s going to be ugly. Luke Weaver has been solid in relief spots, but he’s not a starter. You’d want Chandler or Curtis to eat some innings, but neither has shown consistent dominance yet. This is where the injury list really bites us.
Megan: It’s brutal. Esmerlyn Valdez, Isaac Mattson, Endy Rodriguez, Everson Pereira, Blaze Jordan, Joshua Baez, Hunter Dobbins... that’s ten players on IL. How does the coaching staff manage the rest day for pitchers with such a thin roster?
Steve: They don’t have much choice. They’re going to have to lean heavily on multi-inning relievers. Carmen Mlodzinski, Yohan Ramirez, Lake Bachar—they’re going to be working hard. If the starters can’t go five innings, the bullpen fatigue will be the deciding factor in this series.
Megan: So, the key is getting Jones deep into the game. If he can replicate that perfect game effort, even if he doesn’t finish it, it sets up the late innings perfectly. Let’s shift gears to the opposing pitcher, Matthew Liberatore. He just broke his winless streak.
Steve: Yeah, Alec Burleson drove in 112 runs yesterday, which is a major league best. Liberatore knows he needs to keep the ball in the park. Against a Pirates lineup that struggled to score in that 5-1 loss, he might feel confident. But Jones is different.
Megan: Jones has been electric. One hit over seven innings? That’s not just good, that’s historic. If he keeps that up, the Pirates aren’t just competing; they’re dominating. Stick with us, because we’re about to break down exactly how this lineup looks without half the roster.
Megan: Before we get into the lineup details, if you enjoyed this breakdown of the Pirates' gritty push toward .500, please consider supporting the show. It helps us keep daily content free for all of you. Check the link in the episode description—every bit helps.
Steve: Thanks, Megan. Now, let’s talk offense. With so many players injured, who is actually hitting? We have Spencer Horwitz at first, Brandon Lowe at second, and Nick Gonzales at third. Plus, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz in the outfield.
Megan: Brandon Lowe has been a huge addition. Yesterday, we talked about relying on rookies like Konnor Griffin and veterans like Lowe. How is Lowe performing in this compressed lineup? Does he have the experience to carry the middle order?
Steve: Lowe is crucial. His plate discipline and ability to handle left-handed pitching make him a mismatch. When the regulars are out, you need guys who can draw walks and drive in runs. He’s doing exactly that. But he needs protection.
Megan: What about Henry Davis behind the plate? Or Rafael Flores Jr.? They’ve been getting reps. Do you see Flores making an impact tonight against Liberatore?
Steve: Flores has shown flashes, but Davis is the more reliable option for consistency. Against a pitcher like Liberatore, who just found his rhythm, you want someone who can sit on fastballs. Davis has the power to change the game in a pinch.
Megan: And Oneil Cruz? He’s been a focal point of the offense. With the Cardinals trying to end their skid, they’ll be targeting him. Can Cruz handle the pressure of closing out the series against his former division rivals?
Steve: Cruz has the speed and the power. If he gets on base, he’s a threat. But Liberatore isn’t going to give him easy pitches. The Pirates need Cruz to be patient. If he swings at balls out of the zone, it’s game over.
Megan: Right. And what about Ryan O'Hearn and Ronny Simon in right field? They’re filling in spots, but do they have the same offensive output as the regulars? This series could hinge on whether these fill-ins can produce.
Steve: O'Hearn is a contact hitter. He’s not going to hit home runs every time, but he can string together hits. Simon is younger, less proven. If the Pirates want to win, O'Hearn needs to step up and provide steady production at the bottom of the order.
Megan: So, the message is clear: patience and contact. No hero ball. Just grinding out at-bats against Liberatore’s newfound confidence. If the Pirates can manufacture runs, they have a chance. But if they strike out early, the bullpen problem comes back to haunt them.
Steve: Exactly. And remember, the ABS challenge system tracker shows how tight the margins are this year. A single swing can change everything. The Pirates need to be disciplined. No swinging at bad pitches. Just waiting for the right spot.
Megan: We’re going to take a quick commercial break here. When we come back, we’ll give you our bold prediction for tonight’s game and wrap up the series outlook. Don’t go anywhere!
Megan: Welcome back. We’ve talked pitching, we’ve talked hitting, and we’ve talked injuries. Now, let’s get to the heart of it: Keys to the series. What does Pittsburgh need to do to secure this win and maybe even the series sweep?
Steve: First, Jones must go deep. Second, the bullpen must survive. Third, the offense needs to score at least three runs. If they do those three things, they win. Simple as that. But with the Cardinals desperate, it won’t be easy.
Megan: The Cardinals are fourth in the NL Central with a 76-81 record. They’re fighting for pride. Liberatore is riding high after his win. But Jones is riding high after that near-perfect game. Who do you trust more in this matchup?
Steve: I trust Jones. His command has been sharp, and his velocity is back. Liberatore is good, but he’s facing a Pirates team that’s hungry. After losing their streak, they want to prove something. I think Jones shuts them down again.
Megan: I agree. And with Lowe and Cruz stepping up, I think the Pirates score enough. My prediction: Pirates win 4-2. Jones gets the win, and the bullpen holds on. What about you, Steve? Are you sticking with a low-scoring affair?
Steve: I’m going slightly higher. I think the Pirates scratch out some runs in the later innings when the Cardinals’ bullpen tires. I’m predicting a 5-3 Pirates victory. Jones goes six strong, and Gregory Soto closes it out.
Megan: 5-3. Bold! But I like it. The Cardinals are struggling on the road, and the Pirates are playing at home. Momentum matters. Even after that 5-1 loss, the overall trend is positive. I’m sticking with my 4-2, but I respect the upside.
Steve: It’s all about execution. If the Pirates execute their defense and don’t make errors, they win. One error changes everything. So, stay sharp, stay focused, and let’s see if Jared Jones can add another gem to his repertoire tonight.
Megan: There you have it. Jones vs. Liberatore, the depleted roster, and our predictions. Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and review wherever you get your podcasts. Go Pirates!
Steve: See you next time. Keep your eyes on the pitch count and the lineup card. It’s going to be a fun night.