Megan: Rafael Flores Jr. just dropped an eighth-inning, go-ahead two-run homer to complete the sweep of Kansas City, and Konnor Griffin is absolutely cooking with four hits in his last outing. But here’s the cold hard truth: if you think this pitching staff can handle St. Louis, you might be dreaming.
Steve: I’m not saying it’s impossible, Megan. I’m saying the rotation is decimated. We’re talking Mitch Keller on the 60-day IL, Braxton Ashcraft also down, and James McArthur gone too. The bullpen is holding onto its sanity by a thread.
Megan: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we break down every angle of your favorite teams. I’m Megan, and alongside me as always is the man who sees the spin rate before the ball even leaves the hand, Steve.
Steve: Good evening, everyone. It’s good to be back.
Megan: Today we are previewing tonight’s clash: the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park. The Pirates sit at 79-77, third in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are 76-80 in fourth. It’s a tight race for that final wildcard spot, and everything hinges on how Pittsburgh manages its remaining assets against their division rival.
Steve: Exactly. Three things we’re digging into tonight. First, who is actually starting on the mound given the injury report? Second, can the offense—led by Brandon Lowe and the hot-hand Konnor Griffin—carry the load when the starters aren't there to eat innings? And third, what does the bullpen usage look like when you have no depth left?
Megan: Let’s get right into it. Segment One: The series and the pitching probables. Steve, walk us through the rotation situation. We know Mitch Keller is out until later in the season, but who is lining up for tonight?
Steve: Well, looking at the available arms, it’s Paul Skenes or Jared Jones. Given that Skenes has been the ace since day one, I’d expect him to take the hill for a crucial home game against a division rival. He’s got the stuff to keep this manageable.
Megan: That makes sense. Skenes has been dominant. But what about the other spots? You mentioned Ashcraft and McArthur are out. That leaves Bubba Chandler, Khristian Curtis, Antwone Kelly, and Luke Weaver—who is currently listed as a reliever but has started games before.
Steve: Right. If Skenes goes tonight, Weaver or Chandler likely gets the next start. This is where it gets messy. In a normal season, you’d have five reliable starters. Here, we’re scraping the bottom of the barrel. The ABS challenge system tracker shows how much pressure is on these guys because they can’t afford mistakes.
Megan: And let’s not forget the bullpen. Craig Kimbrel is on bereavement leave, Kirby Yates is on the 15-day IL, and Carlos Estevez is out for the year. Who is closing games right now?
Steve: It’s a committee. Camilo Doval, Gregory Soto, Lake Bachar, Wilber Dotel, Brandon Eisert, Carmen Mlodzinski, Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramirez. It’s eight arms sharing seven innings. That’s unsustainable over a long season, but for a three-game series, maybe they can survive if the offense scores runs early.
Megan: Eight arms for seven innings? That sounds like a recipe for disaster in the ninth. But hey, stick with us—we’ll see if the bats can save the armchair generals in the next segment.
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Steve: Let’s talk about those bats. After the Royals series, the momentum is clearly with Pittsburgh. Rafael Flores Jr. hit that go-ahead homer, and Brandon Lowe crushed a two-run shot in the eighth against KC. They are finding ways to win close games.
Megan: And don’t sleep on rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin. He had four hits in the previous outing. When you have a rookie stepping up like that, it changes the lineup dynamics. How do you defend against a guy who is hitting .350 or better over his last few games?
Steve: You play shallow, but even then, he’s making contact. The issue with Griffin is experience; he’s young. But paired with Spencer Horwitz at first and Bryan Reynolds in left, this lineup has plate discipline. They aren’t chasing strikes. That’s crucial against St. Louis pitchers who might try to rush them.
Megan: What about Henry Davis behind the plate? He’s catching Skenes or Jones. Does he need to manage the game differently given the shaky bullpen?
Steve: Absolutely. Davis needs to be aggressive with his pitchers. Get ahead in the count. Don’t let the Cardinals’ lineup—which features players like Nolan Gorman or Dylan Carlson if they’re active—get comfortable. Every pitch matters more now because you can’t rely on a deep bench to clean up messes.
Megan: So, offensive output is key. But let’s address the injuries again. Isaac Mattson is on the 15-day IL, Esmerlyn Valdez on the 10-day, and Beck Way on the 15-day. That removes depth from the infield and outfield.
Steve: It means Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo are playing heavy minutes. And in center field, Billy Cook, Jake Mangum, and Oneil Cruz are rotating. Cruz is the star, but Mangum brings speed. If the Cardinals push the pace, Pittsburgh needs to match it defensively.
Megan: Oneil Cruz has been solid, but can he carry the defensive load every night? And what about Ryan O'Hearn and Ronny Simon in right? They need to be productive with the bat to offset any defensive lapses.
Steve: O'Hearn is a platoon specialist. He needs to face left-handed pitching to maximize his OPS. If St. Louis starts a righty, he might be benched. So, the manager has to be smart about matchups. It’s not just about who is healthy; it’s about who is effective.
Megan: This feels like a series where small details win or lose games. A missed sign, a bad hop, a strikeout in the sixth inning. It’s going to be gritty.
Steve: Gritty is the only word for it. This team is surviving on heart and timely hitting rather than pure talent depth right now.
Megan: Alright, Segment Three: Keys to the series and a bold prediction. Steve, what is the single biggest key for Pittsburgh to take this series from St. Louis?
Steve: Pitching efficiency. If the starters go six innings or more, the bullpen stays fresh. If they go three innings, the committee collapses. The key is getting early leads so the relievers don’t have to blow the game open.
Megan: Agreed. And offensively, relying on the middle of the order. Lowe, Horwitz, Reynolds. They need to produce consistently. Can you predict the outcome of this series?
Steve: I’m going bold. I think Pittsburgh wins all three. Skenes takes Game One, the offense explodes against a weaker Cardinal starter in Game Two, and they grind out a win in Game Three thanks to Griffin and Lowe.
Megan: Wow. Three straight? Against a team fighting for its life? I like the confidence, but I think it’s closer. I’ll say they win two of three. Maybe drop one in a high-scoring affair.
Steve: I’ll stick with my prediction. The Cardinals are struggling themselves at 76-80. Pittsburgh has the momentum. I see a 6-2, 5-3, 4-2 victory line for the Pirates.
Megan: We’ll see if history repeats itself from our last predictions. Remember, we predicted a Pirates win in the finale against KC, and it happened! Tonight, let’s hope the magic continues.
Steve: From the heat of the summer to the chill of September, it’s been a wild ride. Thanks for listening.
Megan: Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review us on your favorite podcast app. Share this episode with a fellow Pirate fan. Go Bucs!