Megan: If you think the injury report is a red flag, wait until you hear who’s actually taking the mound tonight.
Steve: It’s not just about who’s hurt, Megan. It’s about who’s left standing in the rotation when everything else has fallen apart.
Megan: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Megan, and this is your daily preview for the Pittsburgh Pirates. I’m joined by Steve, and we are live from the South Side of Chicago—well, digitally speaking. Today, we’re looking at a massive rivalry game against the St. Louis Cardinals, but first, let’s talk about how we got here.
Steve: Right. We just swept the Royals. That was huge. Rafael Flores Jr. with that go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth, Brandon Lowe with his thirty-second home run on Friday. The offense woke up exactly when it needed to. But now? Now we turn to St. Louis.
Megan: Here is what we are breaking down today. First, the pitching probable situation—because with Mitch Keller out long-term and Braxton Ashcraft also on the IL, every decision matters. Second, the lineup changes with Isaac Mattson and Esmerlyn Valdez still sidelined, forcing us to look at younger guys like Konnor Griffin. And third, our bold prediction for tonight’s series opener against the Cardinals. Stick with us.
Steve: And if you enjoyed yesterday’s breakdown of the Royals series, you’re going to want to hear how the bullpen management shifts when you’re facing a team like St. Louis. Let’s dive into Segment One.
Megan: Okay, Steve, let’s start with the elephant in the room. The injury list. We talked about this yesterday, but it’s only grown. Kirby Yates is out, Tony Gonsolin is out, James McArthur is out. Who is actually starting tonight?
Steve: This is where the roster construction gets interesting. With Keller and Ashcraft gone, and the bullpen depleted, the Pirates have to lean heavily on their remaining starters. Paul Skenes is the ace, obviously. But for tonight? I’m expecting Jared Jones or maybe even Bubba Chandler to get the nod depending on rest cycles. The ABS challenge system tracker shows the Pirates are ranking high in defensive efficiency, which helps when your pitching depth is thin.
Megan: Jared Jones sounds like the logical choice if they want to keep Skenes fresh for a potential Game Two or Three. But Jones hasn’t been as dominant as Skenes. How do you manage that expectation against a Cardinals lineup that can hit?
Steve: You manage it by trusting his stuff. Jones has the strikeout rate to miss bats. The issue isn’t his ability; it’s the surrounding support. If he goes five innings, you’re already ahead of the game because the Cardinals’ middle order can be vulnerable to left-handed pitching. Wait, no—the Cardinals are mixed. You need to watch the platoon splits. If Jones faces righties early, he needs to be sharp with his slider.
Megan: That’s a good point. Platoon splits are critical right now. And what about the bullpen? We mentioned Camilo Doval and Gregory Soto are available, but Craig Kimbrel is on bereavement leave. That’s a big void in the late-inning setup. How does that change the leverage usage?
Steve: It forces a more conservative approach. Without Kimbrel, you can’t just blow it in the ninth with confidence. You have to bridge the gap. Luke Weaver and Wilber Dotel become crucial. If the starter goes six innings, you’re handing it to Doval, but if it’s five, you’re risking Weaver too early. It’s a tightrope walk. The Cardinals will try to exploit that hesitation.
Megan: So, essentially, the Pirates can’t afford any mistakes early. If the starter doesn’t go deep, the bullpen gets stretched. That’s a scary thought for a rivalry game. Let’s move to Segment Two and talk about who is actually hitting the ball.
Steve: Exactly. And speaking of hitting, let’s talk about the guys who kept us alive last week. Konnor Griffin had four hits against the Royals. He’s a rookie shortstop, and he’s carrying a lot of weight right now.
Megan: Four hits! That’s incredible for a rookie in September. But Steve, we know Isaac Mattson is still on the 15-day IL. Does that mean Griffin is locking in at short term, or is Jacob Gonzalez getting looks?
Steve: Griffin is likely the everyday guy unless there’s a platoon advantage against the Cardinal starter. But look at the broader picture. Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are the anchors. Cruz has been consistent, but Reynolds needs to step up. His OBP is key. If he gets on base, he puts pressure on the defense. With Spencer Horwitz at first, the contact rate should stay high.
Megan: Horwitz is a steady presence. And what about Henry Davis behind the plate? He’s been solid defensively, but offensively, he’s inconsistent. Does he start against St. Louis?
Steve: I’d expect Davis to start if the matchup favors left-handed pitching, but Rafael Flores Jr. might see more time if the Cardinals are heavy right-handed. Flores had that clutch homer last night. Momentum matters. In a rivalry game, you ride the hot hand. So, Flores or Davis, depending on the pitcher.
Megan: Ride the hot hand. I like that philosophy. But what about the outfield? Billy Cook and Jake Mangum are there for speed, but Ryan O'Hearn and Ronny Simon provide power. Who do you want in the lineup against a strong Cardinal bullpen?
Steve: O'Hearn is the safer bet for a one-game series. He makes contact. Mangum is great for moving runners, but you need runs tonight. I want O'Hearn in the cleanup spot or seventh. He keeps the inning alive. And don’t forget Brandon Lowe. He hit that two-run shot on Saturday. He’s in the groove. You feed him pitches.
Megan: Lowe is definitely a key piece here. Okay, we’ve got the injuries, the pitching probables, and the lineup questions. Before we get to our bold prediction, I want to take a quick second. If this episode helped you understand the Pirates' tricky situation better, please consider supporting the show. It’s free, it’s daily, and it takes a lot of work to keep these previews accurate and timely. Just check the link in the episode description to help us keep the lights on. Thanks for listening.
Steve: Appreciate that, Megan. Now, let’s get to the bold prediction. The Cardinals are coming into PNC Park. They’re fighting for position, and they’re tough. But the Pirates just swept the Royals. Confidence is high.
Megan: High confidence, but thin pitching staff. My bold prediction? The Pirates win this series, but it’s ugly. I think they win two close games, maybe 4-3 and 5-4. It’s not going to be a blowout. It’s going to be a grind.
Steve: I agree with the two wins, but I’m picking the Pirates to win the series opener decisively. Why? Because I think Jared Jones dominates early. He’ll go six strong innings, and the bullpen will hold it together. I predict a 6-2 victory for Pittsburgh in Game One. The Cardinals’ pitching is shaky, and the Pirates’ offense, fueled by Griffin and Lowe, will capitalize.
Megan: Six to two? That’s a bold call, Steve. But if Jones is on, I can see it. He has that electric stuff. And if the Cardinals can’t get on base, the Pirates’ defense—which ranks well in the ABS tracker—will make them pay. I’ll stick with my two close wins, but I respect the six-two prediction.
Steve: We’ll see. Either way, the Pirates are 79-77, sitting third in the NL Central. Every game matters now. This series against St. Louis could define their postseason hopes. Don’t miss it.
Megan: That’s it for today! We broke down the injury impact, the probable pitchers, and the key hitters to watch. A huge thanks to everyone who listened. If you enjoyed this preview, please subscribe, rate, and review us on your favorite platform. It helps more fans find the show.
Steve: Yeah, share it with a friend who loves baseball. We’ll be back tomorrow with another update. Stay tuned for the game action.
Megan: Go Pirates! See you next time on the Beatline Podcast Network.