Megan: Brandon Lowe just blasted a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth to lift the Pirates past the Royals, 6-5. But that was yesterday. Today, we are back at PNC Park for Game Three of this series, and let me tell you, the storylines are piling up faster than the strikeout column on some of these Royals starters.
Steve: It’s a tight one, Megan. The Pirates sit at 78-77, third in the NL Central, while the Royals are struggling at 67-87 down in fifth. But when you look at the injury report, it’s a mess for both sides. We’ve got to talk about who is actually available to pitch today.
Megan: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Megan Miller, and with me as always is Steve Bartelstein. We are live from Pittsburgh, where the energy is high after that thrilling 6-5 win last night. Konnor Griffin had four hits in the previous game, and now he’s looking to carry that momentum into the finale.
Steve: And we’re here to break down exactly what needs to happen for Pittsburgh to close out this series. We’ll look at the pitching matchup, the health of the bullpen, and why offensive consistency is going to be the deciding factor tonight.
Megan: Here is what we have coming up. First, we’ll dive into the probable pitchers and what the ABS challenge system data tells us about umpire tendencies for this series. Second, we’ll discuss the severe impact of injuries on the Pirates' rotation and how the remaining arms need to step up. And finally, we’ll give you our keys to the series and a bold prediction for tonight’s outcome.
Steve: That’s right. From Mitch Keller being on the 60-day IL to Craig Kimbrel on bereavement leave, the roster construction is weird. But the guys who are there? They’ve been fighting. Let’s get into it.
Megan: Okay, Steve, let’s start with the mound. We know the Royals are visiting for the finale. Who do we expect to see starting for Pittsburgh tonight? The headlines mentioned Griffin leading the Pirates, but that was an offensive highlight reel.
Steve: Right, Konnor Griffin is the shortstop who had that four-hit game. He’s not on the mound. You have to look at the rotation depth chart. With Mitch Keller, Connor Seabold, Tony Gonsolin, James McArthur, and Beck Way all on injured lists, the Pirates are scraping the bottom of the barrel here.
Megan: It’s brutal. So who is left? We see names like Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, Khristian Curtis, and Antwone Kelly on the active roster. Who makes sense for a late-season showdown against a team that’s already eliminated from playoff contention?
Steve: I’d lean toward Jared Jones or maybe Khristian Curtis getting the call. Jones has shown flashes of elite stuff when he’s healthy. The ABS challenge system tracker has been interesting this year; it ranks teams and umpires by their challenge success rates. If the home plate umpire tonight has a low challenge success rate for the Pirates, they might want to avoid walks early.
Megan: That’s a great point about the ABS challenges. It’s a niche stat, but in a tight game, knowing whether the umpire calls a tight corner or gives batters a pass can change your entire approach. What about the Royals? Are they throwing someone new?
Steve: The Royals are 67-87, so they might be experimenting too. But generally, when a team is this far out, they protect their young arms. However, if they are tired, that’s an opportunity. The Pirates won the first two games of this series, including that 8-5 thriller on Friday where Griffin had four hits. They have the momentum.
Megan: And they held off the Brewers earlier in the week, winning 7-4 behind Henry Davis’s two-run homer. The offense is clicking. But Steve, we can’t ignore the elephant in the room: the injury list is massive. How does this affect the way you think about the starting pitcher tonight?
Steve: It forces a higher leverage usage early. If your starter doesn’t go deep, you’re burning out your relievers. And remember, Kirby Yates is on the 15-day IL, Isaac Mattson is out, Esmerlyn Valdez is out. The bullpen isn’t deep either. This isn’t just about who starts; it’s about who survives the middle innings.
Megan: So, the key is efficiency. If the Pirates’ starter can get six innings, they have a chance. If it’s three, the bullpen has to work overtime. Let’s pause here for a quick word from our supporters.
Megan: Hey everyone, before we get into the lineup analysis, I wanted to take a second to say thank you. Putting out a fresh, daily show like this takes a lot of time and resources. It’s genuinely thanks to our community chipping in via the link in the episode description that we can keep this network free and running every single day. You make this possible.
Steve: We appreciate every listen and every share. It helps us keep the lights on and the baseball analysis sharp. Now, let’s get back to the Pirates and Royals.
Megan: Let’s talk about the bats. After Brandon Lowe’s go-ahead homer last night, the offense feels alive. But we also saw Konnor Griffin tear it up with four hits. Is he the guy to build around for the rest of the season?
Steve: Griffin is a rookie shortstop, and having four hits in a game is huge. It shows he’s adjusted to the velocity and the spin. But you can’t rely on one player. You need Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz to contribute. Last week against Milwaukee, Henry Davis stepped up with a two-run homer. That kind of production is critical.
Megan: Right, and Spencer Horwitz has been solid at first base. In our preview last week, we talked about needing offensive production from stars like Cruz and Horwitz to compete against league-leading teams. Do you feel like they are delivering on that promise now?
Steve: They are. Horwitz has been consistent. The issue is the platoon splits. When you face left-handed pitching, you need those right-handed bats to produce. The Royals might try to mix things up with their bullpen. If they bring in a lefty specialist, the Pirates need Nick Gonzales or Billy Cook ready to pinch-hit or start.
Megan: What about the defense? With Jacob Gonzalez and Konnor Griffin sharing time at shortstop, how does that affect the defensive positioning? Are they playing more aggressively?
Steve: Defensive positioning is key. If Griffin is at short, he’s agile. But you have to be careful not to leave gaps. Against a team like Kansas City, who might not hit for power but can bunt or squeeze, you want your infielders playing in. The risk is errors. Remember, in that 6-5 win, the Royals scored five runs. Every mistake counts.
Megan: Five runs is a lot in a tight game. And Steve, we still have to address the bullpen. Camilo Doval and Gregory Soto are on the roster. Are they the closers? Or is Luke Weaver getting the save?
Steve: It’s unclear. Craig Kimbrel is on bereavement leave, which shakes up the hierarchy. Lake Bachar and Wilber Dotel are there. If the game is close in the ninth, they’ll likely go with whoever has the best recent stats. But honestly, the uncertainty is the problem. You want a defined closer when you’re trying to secure a series win.
Megan: Exactly. It’s a puzzle piece that’s missing. So, if the starter goes the distance, you’re fine. If not, it’s guesswork. Let’s move to our final segment. What are the keys to the series for the Pirates?
Steve: Control the strike zone. The Royals are 67-87; they aren’t going to out-hit you if you don’t make mistakes. Take the pitch away. If you walk three batters, you’re giving them free runs. That’s the key. Plate discipline wins games in September.
Megan: I agree. And the second key? Keep the ball in the park. Brandon Lowe has 32 homers. He’s in the groove. If the Pirates can get another big inning like they did against Milwaukee, where they scored five in the second, they can put the game out of reach early.
Steve: Spot on. Early lead, then manage the game. My prediction? The Pirates win this one. I said they would win two of the three games in my last preview, and they have. I think they take the finale 5-3.
Megan: I’m going with a Pirates victory too, but I think it’s tighter. I predict a 4-3 win. Griffin keeps hitting, and the bullpen holds it together despite the injuries. What do you think, listeners? Will the Pirates complete the sweep?
Megan: Thanks for listening to today’s episode of the Beatline Podcast Network. We covered the pitching matchups, the injury concerns, and the offensive keys to beating the Royals. Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review us wherever you get your podcasts.
Steve: Share this with a fellow Bucs fan. Let’s keep the streak going. Go Pirates!
Megan: We’ll see you tomorrow. Until then, keep swinging!