Megan: You are not going to believe the state of this roster. We are looking at a team that just got hammered 12-2 by these same opponents, but now Paul Skenes is back on the mound against his old club, and the injury report reads like a phone book.
Steve: It’s a logistical nightmare for Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller is out long-term, Hunter Harvey is gone, and even Gavin Hollowell is on the shelf. But if you want to know how they survive another night at Wrigley, you need to listen closely.
Megan: Welcome back to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Megan Hahn, and joining me as always is Steve Martin. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to today’s preview show.
Steve: Hey Megan, good to be here. It’s September 13th, and the stakes are weirdly high for a team sitting at 74-75, third in the NL Central.
Megan: That’s right. Tonight, we’ve got three big items on the docket. First, we’re breaking down the pitching matchup with Paul Skenes facing off against Shota Imanaga’s replacement. Second, we’re talking about the offensive spark Oneil Cruz needs to provide after that 12-2 beating. And third, we’re tackling the elephant in the room: the massive injury list that has decimated this bullpen and rotation.
Steve: And honestly, when you look at who is available versus who is on the 60-day IL, it’s clear why the last game ended so poorly for them. Let’s jump into Segment One: The Series and the Pitching Probables.
Megan: Okay, let’s set the scene. The Pirates lost to the Cubs yesterday, 4-3, but before that, they were absolutely crushed 12-2. Alex Bregman hit his 25th homer, Shota Imanaga tossed six effective innings, and the Pirates’ defense just couldn’t hold up. Now, tonight, they’re back at Wrigley Field. Who is starting for Pittsburgh?
Steve: It has to be Paul Skenes. Look, I know the skepticism around him sometimes, but he’s their ace. He’s healthy enough to start, which is huge given that Mitch Keller is on the 60-day IL. For the Cubs, they’re likely sticking with their starter, though Imanaga had a great day yesterday. This is a classic David vs. Goliath matchup, except David is missing half his arms.
Megan: Right, and remember our prediction from Friday? I said Skenes would dominate, and Steve predicted a 3-2 or 4-3 Pirates win based on grit. Well, the grit was there in the 4-3 loss, but the offense went silent in the 12-2 game. Can Skenes keep the Cubs off the board tonight?
Steve: I think Skenes can pitch well. His stuff is elite. The problem isn’t Skenes; it’s the run support. In that 12-2 game, the Pirates scored two runs. That’s not enough against a Cubs lineup that features Alex Bregman. If Skenes gives up three or four runs early, the bullpen is going to have to work overtime, and we all know they are stretched thin.
Megan: Let’s talk about that bullpen. Last night, they took a 4-3 loss, but the game before, they got blown out. Who is actually available to close this out tonight? We know Gregory Soto is the closer, but who is behind him?
Steve: It’s a mess, Megan. Kirby Yates is on the 15-day IL. Hunter Harvey and Shelby Miller are both on the 60-day IL. Even Justin Steele is out. So you’re looking at Camilo Doval, Luke Weaver, Brandon Eisert, and maybe Yohan Ramirez. That’s a very volatile setup. If Skenes doesn’t go deep, you’re asking Doval or Weaver to eat innings, and that’s risky.
Megan: So, the strategy has to be 'pitch to contact' or hope for an early lead? Because if they trail by five, they’re done.
Steve: Exactly. They need Skenes to go seven innings. No more. Keep the bullpen fresh. If they get into the sixth inning with a one-run lead, then you can bring in Gregory Soto. But if they’re trailing, you’re playing checkers with a deck that’s been cut in half.
Megan: This is going to be tight. If Skenes struggles, the Pirates are in trouble. But if he shuts them down, it’s a whole different ballgame. Let’s take a quick breath before we dive into the hitters and the rest of those injuries. Stick with us.
Megan: Before we get into the bats, I have to ask: if these daily breakdowns are part of your morning routine or commute, a small tip is exactly what keeps them coming. Please visit the link in the episode description to help us stay free and daily. Thanks for supporting us!
Megan: Alright, welcome back to Segment Two. We’ve talked about the pitchers, but let’s talk about the players who actually put runs on the board. After that 12-2 loss, where does the offense come from? We mentioned Rafael Flores Jr. hitting three hits recently, but who else is in the mix?
Steve: It has to be Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds. Remember our predictions from earlier this week? I said the series would split, and you said a sweep if Cruz kept hitting homers. Well, Cruz needs to carry the load. He’s the heart of this order. If he gets hot, he can single-handedly win games.
Megan: And Bryan Reynolds? He’s been solid all year, but against the Cubs, he needs to find gaps. The Cubs have a strong defense, especially in center field. How do you exploit that?
Steve: You use speed. Billy Cook and Jake Mangum are on the roster. They aren’t power hitters, but they can steal bases and put pressure on the infield. If the Cubs are playing straight up, you attack the edges. But honestly, the biggest question mark is Esmerlyn Valdez.
Megan: Oh, right. The rookie outfielder. What happened to him?
Steve: He hurt his left hamstring running to first base during that 12-2 game. He’s been placed on the 10-day IL. That’s a huge blow for their depth. Valdez was bringing energy and speed to the bottom of the lineup. Now, you’re relying on Ryan O’Hearn and Spencer Horwitz to fill that void.
Megan: So, no Valdez. No Keller. No Harvey. No Steele. Just Skenes and a bunch of guys trying to figure it out. Is there any other key player we should watch for tonight?
Steve: Look at Nick Gonzales at third base. He’s young, he’s athletic, and if the Cubs are pushing the bunt or trying to squeeze runs across, he needs to make plays. Also, Henry Davis behind the plate. Catching Skenes requires patience and framing skills. If Davis can frame strikes, Skenes stays in the game longer.
Megan: Great point. Davis and Skenes have a connection. If that battery works, the Pirates have a chance. But if the Cubs are pounding the zone early, it could be a long night. Let’s move to Segment Three: Keys to the Series and Our Bold Predictions.
Megan: Okay, Steve. You’ve seen the injury report. You’ve seen the recent history. The Cubs are second in the NL Central at 83-66. The Pirates are third at 74-75. What are the keys to the series for Pittsburgh tonight?
Steve: Key number one: Control the strike zone. Skenes has to throw strikes. If he walks three guys in the first two innings, the game is over. Key number two: Small ball. With Valdez out, they need baserunning. Steal a base, bunt a runner over, anything to manufacture a run without relying on the home run.
Megan: I agree. And for the Cubs, it’s simple: attack the middle of the plate. Don’t try to be fancy. Get Skenes out early, and let Alex Bregman do what he does best.
Steve: So, bold prediction time. I’m going to stick with my previous stance. I think the Pirates win tonight. 4-3. Skenes pitches a gem, Cruz hits a solo shot in the seventh, and Gregory Soto closes it out. I know they just lost 12-2, but baseball is about momentum swings.
Megan: Oh, I’m going harder than that. I think the Pirates win 5-3. I think the offense wakes up. I think Oneil Cruz drives in the go-ahead run, and the bullpen holds on despite the injuries. I’m predicting a Pirates victory, driven by the sheer will of a team that refuses to quit.
Steve: We’ll see. I’m cautiously optimistic. But hey, if you’re betting on this, maybe don’t bet the house. Just enjoy the baseball.
Megan: There you have it. A tough matchup, a depleted roster, but a lot of heart. The Pirates host the Cubs tonight at Wrigley Field. Game time is 6:20 PM Central.
Steve: If you enjoyed this preview, please subscribe, rate, and review us wherever you get your podcasts. It really helps the show grow.
Megan: Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network. Go Pirates!