Megan: You just got crushed, 12-2, by Alex Bregman’s twenty-fifth homer and a six-inning masterclass from Shota Imanaga. But here is the thing about Wrigley Field: you don’t stay down for long if you’ve got heart. And we are talking about exactly how Pittsburgh bounces back tonight.
Steve: It’s a brutal scoreline, Megan. Twelve runs is a lot of damage to absorb in one night, especially when your rotation is decimated. But this is baseball, and the series continues immediately. We’re looking at the pitching matchup, the injury report that keeps growing, and whether the offense can find any rhythm against a hungry Cubs team.
Megan: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, home of daily sports coverage! I’m Megan, and alongside me as always is our lead analyst, Steve. If you’re new here, you’re in the right place for deep dives into the NL Central. Today, we’re previewing Game Two of the series between the Pirates and the Chicago Cubs. It’s September 12th, 2026. The Pirates sit at 74-74, third in the division, while the Cubs are at 81-66, sitting second. That gap feels huge right now, doesn't it?
Steve: It does. Eight games back with only a few left to play makes the math tough. But let’s be clear: this isn’t just about standing anymore; it’s about pride and development. We discussed yesterday how Jared Jones was dominating, but last night was a different story entirely. Tonight, we have to figure out who starts on the mound and how we manage a bullpen that is basically running on fumes.
Megan: Exactly. So here is what we are breaking down today. First, we’ll look at the pitching probable and what happens when the lights go on at Wrigley. Second, we’ll talk about the key hitters—specifically Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn—and the massive injury list that includes Mitch Keller, Gabriel Moreno... wait, no, Mitch Keller, Braxton Ashcraft, and even Esmerlyn Valdez exiting last game with a hamstring issue. And finally, we’ll give you our keys to the series and a bold prediction for tonight’s outcome. Let’s get into it.
Megan: Alright, Segment One: The Series and the Pitching Probables. Steve, after that 12-2 loss, the pressure is on the staff. Who is starting tonight? And more importantly, how do we assess the state of this rotation?
Steve: Well, Megan, looking at the roster available, we have Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Khristian Curtis, and Jared Jones. With Mitch Keller on the 60-day IL and Braxton Ashcraft on the 15-day, the options are limited. Given that Jared Jones threw seven innings of one-hit ball against the White Sox just a couple of days ago, he might need rest. I suspect they go with Paul Skenes or Bubba Chandler. Skenes has been electric when healthy, but his usage needs to be managed carefully.
Megan: Right. And if it is Skenes, the expectation is high. Remember, we talked about his potential earlier this week. But facing the Cubs at Wrigley is no walk in the park. The wind can play tricks, and their lineup is potent. What did you make of that 12-2 loss defensively? Did the pitchers just get lit up, or was there some breakdown?
Steve: It was a bit of both. Shota Imanaga was sharp—he tossed six effective innings—but the defensive lapses were glaring. You can’t allow twelve runs unless there are errors or missed opportunities in the field. However, the bigger issue is the offensive silence against Imanaga. The Pirates failed to generate much momentum. If Skenes starts, he needs to keep the ball in the park. His stuff is elite, but if he leaves pitches over the plate, the Cubs will punish him.
Megan: So, pitch to contact? Keep it low? That sounds like a simple recipe, but executing it against a lineup like Chicago’s is hard. What about the other option, Bubba Chandler? We mentioned him in the previous episode as a potential reliever, but could he start tonight?
Steve: Chandler is versatile. He has started before, and given the depth issues, he might be the logical choice if they want to save Skenes for a later date. Chandler has good control, which is crucial at Wrigley. If he can limit walks, he gives the defense a chance. But again, the defense needs to step up. Last night was a cautionary tale. You cannot rely on mistakes to win games in September.
Megan: Okay, so the key is minimizing walks and keeping the ball in the yard. Whether it’s Skenes or Chandler, the margin for error is zero. If they give up early runs, the bullpen has to come in, and we know how thin that unit is. Hunter Harvey and Kirby Yates are on the 15-day IL, along with Isaac Mattson. Tyler Austin and Shelby Miller are on the 60-day. This is a makeshift group.
Steve: Exactly. Camilo Doval is likely the closer, but relying on him every night is unsustainable. Gregory Soto and Luke Weaver provide some stability, but they need to work efficiently. If the starter goes five innings, the bullpen has to eat up four or five more. That’s a tall order with the current health status. Gavin Hollowell is also on the 15-day, so the minor league call-ups are going to see significant action. It’s a test of organizational depth.
Megan: It really is. But let’s pivot to the bright side. Even in a 12-2 loss, there are positives. Ryan O’Hearn was activated from the 10-day IL before Friday’s game. He’s an infielder/outfielder who provides veteran presence. And we know Oneil Cruz has been swinging the bat well. Let’s talk about the offense in Segment Two.
Megan: Segment Two: Key Hitters and Bullpen Questions, Plus Injuries. Steve, after that shutout win against the White Sox where Oneil Cruz hit a solo homer, the offense felt alive. Then boom, 12-2 loss. How do we reset the mindset?
Steve: The reset is all about plate discipline. Against a pitcher like Imanaga, you have to be selective. Last night, the Pirates seemed tentative. They weren’t attacking the zones they wanted. Oneil Cruz is capable of changing a game with his power, but he needs to be patient. Bryan Reynolds is another guy who needs to drive in runs. We predicted RBIs from Reynolds and Cruz in our last preview, and while they didn’t show up against the Cubs, they need to against whoever starts tonight.
Megan: Reynolds and Cruz. Got it. And what about Spencer Horwitz? He’s been a consistent producer at first base. Does he have a platoon advantage against the Cubs’ starter? Or is the matchup too ambiguous right now since we don’t have a confirmed probable yet?
Steve: Horwitz is solid. He has good contact rates and can exploit gaps. If the Cubs start a lefty, Horwitz becomes even more valuable. But honestly, the whole lineup needs to wake up. Brandon Lowe at second base, Nick Gonzales at third—they need to contribute. The problem is the injury to Esmerlyn Valdez. He exited last night with a left hamstring injury while running to first. That’s a big blow for outfield depth and speed.
Megan: Ouch. Hamstring injuries are tricky. They can linger. Is he day-to-day? The reports say yes, but we need to see how he warms up tonight. If he’s not ready, who takes the corner outfield spots? Billy Cook? Jake Mangum? Both are speedy, but do they have the power to compensate for Valdez’s absence?
Steve: Cook and Mangum are more contact/speed guys. They won’t hit many home runs. So the burden falls on Cruz, Reynolds, and maybe Henry Davis behind the plate. Davis has shown flashes of power. If the Pirates can get some extra-base hits, they can put pressure on the Cubs’ bullpen. The Cubs aren’t invincible in relief. They have to use their own arms eventually.
Megan: That’s the plan. Attack early, wear them down. But Steve, there’s one more injury we have to address. Mitch Keller is still on the 60-day IL. We’ve talked about his absence a lot. Does his absence change the strategic approach for the rest of the season? Are they trying to win now, or build for next year?
Steve: Keller is a frontline starter. His absence hurts deeply. It forces guys like Skenes and Jones to carry heavier loads. It also means the team is operating with a smaller margin for error. Every mistake is magnified. For the front office, it’s a balancing act. They need to compete for playoff positioning, but they also need to develop young talent. It’s a tough spot to be in. 74-74 is .500, which is mediocre, but with the injuries, it’s understandable.
Megan: Mediocre is fine if you’re contending, but eight games back is a mountain. Still, I love the resilience of this group. They swept the White Sox, then got blown out by the Cubs. That’s baseball. Now, let’s move to Segment Three. We need to talk about Keys to the Series and a Bold Prediction. Steve, lay it on me.
Megan: Segment Three: Keys to the Series and a Bold Prediction. Here is the deal. The Pirates are playing for pride, for development, and maybe a slight shot at wild card contention if everything breaks right. What are the three keys to winning tonight?
Steve: Number one: Defense. No errors. Simple as that. Number two: Pitching efficiency. The starter needs to go at least five innings, ideally six, to save the bullpen. And number three: Power hitting. The Pirates need to hit at least two home runs. They can’t just scratch out singles against a quality opponent like the Cubs. They need to take the bases away.
Megan: I agree with all three. Defense, Efficiency, Power. It’s a tall order, but not impossible. So, what’s your bold prediction for tonight? Are we talking a sweep? A split? Or something else?
Steve: I’m going to predict a Pirates victory. Not a blowout, but a gritty, low-scoring affair. Maybe 3-2 or 4-3. I think Paul Skenes starts, and he dominates the middle innings. Cruz gets a key hit, and the bullpen holds it together. It’s a risk, given the injuries, but I trust the core players to step up.
Megan: A Pirates win! I like the confidence, Steve. I was leaning toward a Cubs win because of the momentum from yesterday, but you’re making a strong case for the bounce-back. I’ll go with a split for the series, but I’ll give you tonight’s game. Pirates win 4-3. Cruz with the go-ahead run. It’s a bold take, but I’m buying it.
Steve: We’ll see. It’s always fun to pick sides. But remember, this is baseball. Anything can happen. One bad hop, one swing and a miss, and the script changes. That’s why we watch.
Megan: Before we go, I want to thank you for listening. If you enjoyed today’s deep dive into the Pirates’ challenges and hopes, please consider supporting the show. If this episode helped you feel more connected to the team, or if you learned something new about the roster dynamics, that means the world to us. Please chip in to help keep these daily episodes free for everyone. Just check out the link in the episode description.
Steve: Yeah, your support keeps this network running. We appreciate every single one of you. Thank you for being part of the Beatline family.
Megan: Thanks, Steve. Alright fans, that’s a wrap for today. We’ll be back tomorrow with another preview. Go Pirates!