Megan: Oneil Cruz just blasted a solo shot, Jared Jones threw seven innings of one-hit ball, and now the Pittsburgh Pirates are riding a three-game sweep into Wrigleyville. This is not your average September road trip.
Steve: It’s a dominant performance on the road against the White Sox, but the challenge changes completely when you look at the Chicago Cubs. They’re sitting second in the NL Central with an 81-66 record, while we’re at 74-73 in third place.
Megan: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we break down every pitch, every play, and every playoff implication. I’m Megan, and as always, I’m joined by Steve.
Steve: Hey everyone. It’s great to be back. We’ve got a massive series ahead, starting tonight against the Cubs. We’re going to talk about the pitching matchup, how this depleted bullpen handles the high-pressure environment, and what the offense needs to do to keep this momentum going.
Megan: Before we dive into the details, we want to say thank you. If today’s breakdown helped you understand the Pirates’ chances or just made your commute better, consider supporting the show. A small contribution helps keep these daily episodes free for everyone. You can find the link in the episode description.
Steve: Exactly. It’s all about keeping the network running and giving you the best analysis possible. Now, let’s get into it. The Pirates come in with a win streak, but the Cubs are fighting for every inch of ground in the standings.
Megan: Let’s start with the big picture. Yesterday, we talked about the White Sox series, and Steve, you predicted a potential sweep if Skenes dominated. Well, he didn’t have to take the mound last night because Jared Jones was absolutely electric.
Steve: I remember saying that. And honestly, Jones delivering seven innings of one-hit ball feels like the natural progression of this team’s development. But tonight, it’s a different animal. The Cubs are a much tougher test defensively and offensively than the White Sox were.
Megan: Right. The White Sox had zero runs in that game, which is impressive for them, but the Cubs have an 81-66 record. That’s a serious gap between first place and where the Pirates currently sit. Who is starting for Pittsburgh tonight?
Steve: It looks like Paul Skenes is getting the nod. Given the rotation’s current state—Mitch Keller is on the 60-day IL, Braxton Ashcraft is out with arm discomfort, and Tanner Murray is also on the long-term list—Skenes is the anchor here.
Megan: That’s a lot of holes in the rotation. But Skenes has been phenomenal. How does his stuff match up against the Cubs’ lineup? They’re known for being patient at the plate.
Steve: It’s a classic matchup of elite velocity versus disciplined contact. Skenes throws hard, often in the upper nineties, and he uses his slider to chase hitters out of the zone. The key will be his ability to miss bats early in counts. If he gets ahead, the Cubs struggle to square things up.
Megan: And if he doesn’t? Because we know the bullpen is stretched thin. Bubba Chandler and Khristian Curtis are there, but they’ve been heavily relied upon recently. Do you trust them to hold the line if Skenes hits trouble?
Steve: That’s the million-dollar question. The bullpen usage has been critical all season. With Kirby Yates on the 15-day IL, the late-inning leverage roles are wide open. If Skenes goes six innings and leaves the game tied, the pressure shifts entirely to Camilo Doval or Gregory Soto.
Megan: Gregory Soto has been solid, but it’s a high-leverage spot against a playoff-bound team. Let’s shift gears to the offense. After that 2-0 win, the Pirates are feeling good. What’s the plan against the Cubs’ pitcher?
Steve: The offense needs to capitalize on mistakes. Against the White Sox, Oneil Cruz provided the spark with a solo home run. He’s been a constant threat. The Cubs have to respect him, which opens up opportunities for Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz.
Megan: Reynolds is having another great year. His OBP is crucial for this lineup. But looking at the roster, we see some interesting names. Rafael Flores Jr. mentioned earlier had a three-hit game. Is he still in the mix?
Steve: Flores is definitely part of the conversation. His swing speed forces pitchers to change their approach. But with Isaac Mattson on the 15-day IL and Tommy Pham on the 10-day IL, the depth chart is shifting. Henry Davis is catching most games, which gives us stability behind the plate.
Megan: Stability is key when you’re playing on the road. But let’s talk about the injuries again, because it’s a long list. Drew Thorpe, Huascar Brazoban, Tyler Davis... it’s impacting the minor league call-ups too.
Steve: It’s tough on the front office. Having so many arms on the IL means they can’t afford any more setbacks. Ryan O’Hearn is also out, which limits the DH options. This puts more emphasis on platoon splits. If the Cubs start a lefty, we need right-handed bats like Brandon Lowe or Billy Cook to step up.
Megan: Brandon Lowe brings some power from the middle infield. His presence adds versatility. But the real story is how the Pirates manage fatigue. They just finished a three-game sweep. Are the legs fresh for a series against a team like Chicago?
Steve: That’s the tactical side. If they play five games against the Cubs, rest becomes a factor. Managers might pull starters earlier to save the bullpen. It’s a delicate balance. You want to win the series, but you don’t want to burn out your relievers before the postseason push truly begins.
Megan: So, it’s not just about who wins tonight, but how they position themselves for the final stretch. The ABS challenge system tracker shows some interesting stats for batters and catchers. Does that data point to any specific weaknesses in the Cubs’ defense?
Steve: The ABS data is useful for spotting trends. If the Cubs’ catcher is struggling with pitch framing, that could lead to more called strikes for the Pirates. Or if their outfielders are slow, hit-and-run plays become more effective. It’s all about exploiting those margins.
Megan: Okay, let’s get to our keys to the series. First key: Pitching depth. Can the Pirates survive without their usual rotation pieces?
Steve: Absolutely. If Skenes can go deep into the game, it saves the bullpen. If not, they need immediate help from the bench. Antwone Kelly or Luke Weaver might see action sooner than expected.
Megan: Second key: Offensive execution. No more one-run games if they want to sweep. They need to score multiple runs.
Steve: Agreed. The White Sox game was tight, 2-0. Against the Cubs, who have a stronger overall record, the Pirates need to generate more base runners. Launch angle matters here. Hitting the ball in the air to the gaps can quickly change the scoreboard.
Megan: Third key: Defense. With so many injuries, positioning is everything. Can they make the plays that keep innings alive?
Steve: Defensive efficiency is huge. Nick Gonzales at third base and Jacob Gonzalez or Konnor Griffin at short stop need to be sharp. Every error against a team like the Cubs can be costly. They have to be flawless.
Megan: Alright, Steve, give us your bold prediction. The Pirates are underdogs, but they have momentum. Where do you see this series ending?
Steve: I’m going to predict a split. The Cubs are better on paper, but the Pirates’ resilience is real. I think they take one, lose one, and steal a wild card-type win in the finale. Maybe a 4-3 victory driven by late-inning bullpen dominance.
Megan: Interesting. I’ll go with a sweep. If Skenes is on fire and Cruz keeps hitting home runs, they can’t be stopped. But I respect your caution. It’s a tough series either way.
Megan: We’ll see how it plays out when tip-off happens tonight. Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and review wherever you get your podcasts.
Steve: Keep supporting the team. Go Pirates.