Megan: The Pirates lost two heartbreakers in LA, but today they've got a chance to steal one back. Can they avoid the sweep and send this series back East with some pride? We're breaking it all down right now.
Steve: And we're not just talking about avoiding a sweep—we're talking about whether this young rotation can hang with the best offense in baseball. This is Beatline, Pirates fans.
Megan: Welcome back to the Beatline Podcast Network, Pittsburgh. I'm Megan, and as always, my man Steve is here with the deep dive. Today is Sunday, August 23rd, and the Pirates are looking to salvage the finale of a three-game set at Dodger Stadium.
Steve: We're coming off a tough 4-3 loss last night, and Saturday's extra-inning walk-off was brutal. But today's a new day, and we've got a fresh pitching matchup to dissect.
Megan: Here's what we've got coming up today. First, we'll break down the series so far and the pitching probables for today's finale. Then, we'll look at the hitters who need to step up and the bullpen questions that keep popping up. And finally, we'll give you the keys to the series and our bold prediction. Stick with us.
Steve: Megan, let's start with the big picture. The Pirates are 63-68, fourth in the NL Central. The Dodgers are 78-51, first in the NL West. On paper, this is a mismatch, but we've seen this team fight all weekend.
Megan: Yeah, Friday night was a one-run game, and last night they led into the late innings. The Dodgers needed a 10th-inning walk-off on Saturday and a late rally on Friday. So the Pirates are competing.
Steve: Exactly. And today, the pitching matchup is the headline. The Dodgers are sending Tarik Skubal to the mound. He just earned his first win as a Dodger last night, striking out 11. That's a tough draw.
Megan: Skubal is a Cy Young-caliber arm, and he's finally healthy and dealing. But the Pirates have seen him before—he's a familiar foe from his Detroit days. What's the key against him, Steve?
Steve: Plate discipline. Skubal lives on the edges with a wipeout slider. The Pirates have to make him throw strikes early. If they can get his pitch count up and get into that bullpen, that's a win.
Megan: And on the other side, the Pirates haven't announced a starter yet, but our guess is Paul Skenes gets the nod. He's the ace, and this is a statement game.
Steve: Skenes has been electric all year. His fastball velocity is up, and his command has been sharp. If he pitches like he did earlier this season, the Pirates have a real shot.
Megan: We predicted before the series that Skenes would win Game 1, and he didn't—but he kept them in it. Today, he's got a chance to be the stopper.
Steve: The key for Skenes is to limit the long ball. The Dodgers lead the league in home runs, and they've already gone deep a couple times this series. If he can keep the ball in the yard, he'll give the offense a chance.
Megan: Let's not forget the bullpen. We've talked about this all weekend—the relief corps has been shaky. Last night, they gave up the lead late. That's been a recurring theme.
Steve: The bullpen is a concern, but they've been better lately. Kirby Yates has been solid, and Camilo Doval has electric stuff. If Skenes can go six or seven, the backend might hold up.
Megan: Alright, so we've got a tough matchup, but there's a path. Let's move to segment two and talk about the hitters who need to step up.
Megan: Steve, the offense has been inconsistent all season. They're averaging under four runs a game, and that's not going to cut it against Skubal. Who needs to get going?
Steve: First and foremost, Oneil Cruz. He's the most dynamic hitter on this team, and he's been quiet this series. We predicted he'd go deep on Saturday, and he didn't. Today, he needs to be the guy.
Megan: Cruz has the power to change a game with one swing. If he can catch up to Skubal's fastball, he could put a charge into one. But he's also prone to strikeouts. What's the approach?
Steve: He's got to be patient. Skubal will try to get him to chase the slider low and away. If Cruz lays off and forces the fastball, he's dangerous. It's a chess match.
Megan: And what about Bryan Reynolds? He's been the steady presence all year, but he's been quiet in this series too. We need him to get on base and set the table.
Steve: Reynolds is the OBP guy. He's got a great eye and he's been hitting the ball hard. If he can work deep counts and get into the Dodger bullpen, that's huge. He's the engine of this lineup.
Megan: And let's talk about the injuries. The Pirates have a lot of guys on the IL, including Mitch Keller and Endy Rodriguez. That's depth taking a hit. How much does that affect the team?
Steve: It's significant. Keller being on the 60-day IL takes a starter out of the rotation, and Rodriguez being out hurts the catching depth. But the guys who have stepped in—like Rafael Flores Jr.—have been serviceable. It's not ideal, but they're making do.
Megan: The Dodgers have injuries too—Glasnow, Miller, Treinen—but they've got so much depth that they're still winning. That's the difference between a contender and a team like the Pirates right now.
Steve: Absolutely. The Dodgers have a $300 million payroll and they can absorb losses. The Pirates are relying on young guys like Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft to step up. That's a big ask.
Megan: Alright, let's talk about the bullpen one more time. We've seen some shaky outings, but there have been bright spots. Who's been the most reliable?
Steve: Kirby Yates has been fantastic. He's got a 1.80 ERA and he's been striking out over 12 per nine. He's the anchor. And Camilo Doval has electric stuff, but he's been a little wild. If he can find the zone, he's unhittable.
Megan: So the bullpen is a work in progress, but there's talent there. We'll see if they can hold up today.
Megan: Alright, Steve, we're at the top of the hour. Let's get into the keys to the series and the bold prediction. What does Pittsburgh have to do to steal this game?
Steve: Key number one: get to Skubal early. He's going to be amped up after his first win, but if the Pirates can score first, it puts pressure on him. The Dodgers are used to leading, and they're not as comfortable from behind.
Megan: Key number two: keep the ball in the yard. The Dodgers have power up and down the lineup. If Skenes can limit the home runs, the Pirates have a shot.
Steve: And key number three: win the late innings. The Dodgers have been winning close games all year, but their bullpen is banged up. If the Pirates can get to the seventh with a lead, they've got a chance.
Megan: Now, we made a bold prediction before the series that the Pirates would sweep. That's off the table. So what's the new bold prediction for today?
Steve: I'm going to say this: Paul Skenes throws seven innings of one-run ball, and Oneil Cruz hits a two-run homer in the fifth. The Pirates win 4-2 and avoid the sweep.
Megan: That's a bold one, Steve. Skubal has been dominant, but Skenes has been just as good. I'm going to take it a step further—I think the Pirates win by more than one. Let's say 6-3.
Steve: I like the confidence. The Pirates have been in every game this series, and they're due for a breakout. It's going to be a great afternoon of baseball.
Megan: That's all the time we have today. Quick recap: we broke down the pitching matchup, the hitters who need to step up, and our keys to the game. The bottom line is the Pirates can steal this one if they execute.
Steve: Subscribe, rate, and review the Beatline Podcast Network. Share this episode with your fellow Pirates fans, and let's get ready for first pitch.
Megan: Go Bucs! We'll see you after the game.