Rachel: They lost the last two. The lineup is decimated. And Aaron Judge is still waiting on a timeline to return. But tonight, the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays with everything on the line in this AL East race. We are live, we are loud, and we are breaking down exactly how New York gets back on track.
Dave: It’s a tough spot. You look at the roster, you see Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham—all out. But you also see Ben Rice heating up, and you see a bullpen that has David Bednar closing games. Let’s get into it.
Rachel: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Rachel, alongside Dave. If you’re new here, you’re in the right place for daily, deep-dive baseball coverage. Today, we’ve got three big items: first, the pitching matchup and what Clarke Schmidt needs to do against the Rays’ bats; second, the injury report—specifically the latest on Aaron Judge’s October hopes; and third, how the bullpen, led by Bednar, handles the late innings.
Dave: Right. And remember, we predicted a Yankees win in the series finale against Arizona yesterday. Rachel had them winning 5-3, I had a tight 4-3 game with Bednar getting the save. Well, history shows us that didn’t happen—the D-backs took those last two, including an 8-4 loss where Nolan Arenado hit a grand slam. So, the pressure is off the prediction, but it’s on the field tonight.
Rachel: Ouch. Yeah, we take that L gracefully. But tonight is a fresh start. Home field. The Bronx Zoo. Let’s dive into Segment One: The Pitching Matchup.
Dave: So, looking at the rotation, Gerrit Cole isn’t starting today. That’s a massive miss if he were healthy, but with him likely resting or managing his workload for October, who’s in the circle? The brief mentions Clarke Schmidt. He’s been a workhorse. How does he match up against Tampa Bay?
Rachel: Schmidt is the probable starter. And honestly, Dave, given the injuries, this feels like a must-win for him personally. He’s got velocity, but can he keep the ball in the park? The Rays love to pull the ball. If Schmidt gives up early runs, that’s when the bullpen anxiety kicks in.
Dave: Exactly. And look at the defensive positioning. With guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan McMahon potentially facing different platoon splits depending on who’s available in the middle of the order, Schmidt needs to command his fastball. If he’s sitting low in the zone, he’s asking for trouble against Tampa’s contact hitters.
Rachel: What about the rest of the staff? We have Max Fried listed as a starter too, but he’s not going today. Who’s next in line if Schmidt struggles? Because Carlos Rodon has been... well, inconsistent.
Dave: Rodon is a volatile arm. When it’s there, it’s electric. When it’s not, it’s painful. But I think the manager will lean on Will Warren or maybe even Cam Schlittler if they need to go deep. The key here is pitch count management. They can’t burn out the starters before the playoffs.
Rachel: Speaking of burnout, let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Aaron Judge. He’s on the 10-day IL. The headlines say he ‘hopes’ to be back for October, but no definitive timeline. What does that mean for tonight’s lineup construction?
Dave: It means they’re playing with a smaller bench. No Judge means no DH protection for the middle of the order. It changes the entire defensive alignment too. You’re putting more emphasis on Austin Wells behind the plate and maybe shifting Heliot Ramos or Cody Bellinger around more. It’s a tactical puzzle.
Rachel: And don’t forget Giancarlo Stanton is also out. Two massive power threats gone. This team needs to score runs through speed and situational hitting. Anthony Volpe has to be aggressive on the base paths. Can he steal enough bases to put pressure on the Rays’ catcher?
Dave: Volpe is crucial. His OBP is one of the few bright spots in the lineup right now. If he gets on, he creates chaos. But without Judge drawing walks, pitchers might be willing to challenge Volpe earlier in counts. That’s a dangerous game to play.
Rachel: Alright, so Schmidt starts, Judge sits, and the margin for error is razor thin. Stick with us, because in Segment Two, we’re diving into the bullpen—who closes, and who’s left holding the bag if Schmidt goes only five innings?
Dave: This is where the magic happens, Rachel. Or the disaster. We have David Bednar listed as a reliever. He’s been solid. But look at the depth: Paul Blackburn, Michael Fulmer, Brent Headrick, Tim Hill, John Schreiber, Ryan Yarbrough. That’s a lot of arms, but not all of them are high-leverage.
Rachel: Bednar seems like the clear closer. But after him? It’s a bit of a free-for-all. If Schmidt goes six strong, do you trust John Schreiber in the seventh? Or do you go straight to Bednar in the eighth?
Dave: I’d use Schreiber for setup. He’s got strikeout stuff. But the real question is the ninth. If Bednar is tired from last night’s 8-4 loss, do you bring in someone else? Or do you ride him? In the playoffs, you ride your best arm. Tonight, you might need to preserve him.
Rachel: What about the injuries affecting the bullpen? Tyler Locklear, Ryan Thompson, A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, Cristian Mena—they’re all on the 60-day IL. That’s five relievers gone. The remaining guys are carrying a heavy load.
Dave: It’s unsustainable long-term, but for a three-game series? Maybe. But fatigue is real. If Bednar throws 30 pitches in relief tonight, he’s not ready for Game One of the postseason. The manager has to be smart. Use the long man. Use the leftovers.
Rachel: Let’s talk about the offense. With Judge and Stanton out, who steps up? Ben Rice has been surging. We talked about him yesterday. Is he hot enough to carry the load against Tampa Bay?
Dave: Rice is the answer. His launch angle is perfect for the short porch in right field. If he keeps swinging at strikes, he’ll get hits. But he needs help. Ali Sanchez and Luis Garcia Jr. have to produce. If the middle of the order goes quiet, Rice gets isolated.
Rachel: And what about the defense? With Trent Grisham out, who’s in center? Spencer Jones? He’s young. Fast, but raw. Can he handle the Rays’ outfielders? One misstep there, and it becomes a run.
Dave: Jones is a project. Defensively, he’s got range, but his arm needs to be accurate. If he makes an error, it’s costly. But offensively, he provides speed. It’s a trade-off. Speed for power. They’re giving up power for speed right now.
Rachel: Speed for power. That’s the theme of this season, isn’t it? Adapting to adversity. Now, Dave, what’s your call on the bullpen usage? Do you trust Bednar to finish it, or do you see a leak somewhere?
Dave: I trust Bednar, but I worry about the lead-in. If Schmidt doesn’t give them a lead, the pressure mounts. I think Schreiber gets the seventh, Bednar the eighth, and maybe a fourth arm for the ninth if needed. It’s risky.
Rachel: Risky. Exactly. So, we’ve got the pitching questions, the injury headaches, and the bullpen gamble. Coming up, we’re giving you our keys to victory and a bold prediction for tonight’s game. Don’t go anywhere.
Rachel: We’re back. Let’s wrap this up. Here are our keys to the series. First, Clarke Schmidt must limit home runs. Second, Ben Rice must stay hot. And third, the bullpen must avoid blowouts.
Dave: I agree. And my bold prediction? The Yankees win this one. Not by a lot. But they grind it out. I see a 3-2 victory. And yes, I’m sticking with David Bednar for the save. He’s earned it.
Rachel: I’ll go slightly higher. 4-2. I think the offense wakes up just enough. But Dave, you’re betting on the bullpen. I’m betting on the bats. Either way, it’s a win for New York.
Dave: We’ll see. But one thing is certain: if Judge comes back, this team transforms. Until then, they’re fighting with one hand tied behind their backs.
Rachel: Thanks for listening, everyone. If you enjoyed this breakdown of the Yankees' tough road ahead, please support the show. Your contributions keep this network free and daily. Click the link in the episode description to chip in and help us keep bringing you these deep dives. Every bit helps.
Dave: That’s right. Your support fuels the research, fuels the analysis. We appreciate every single one of you.
Rachel: Subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen. Share this episode with a fellow Yankee fan. Let’s get this word out. Go Yankees!
Dave: See you tomorrow. Win one for the Bronx.