Rachel: Pavin Smith just hit a walk-off, two-run homer in the ninth to beat the Yankees 5-3. That’s not a drill. We are live from the Bronx and beyond, but right now we’re looking at a series that has completely unraveled for New York.
Dave: It was brutal. A loss like that puts massive pressure on Game Four. If you missed yesterday’s breakdown of Gerrit Cole’s historic night and Ben Rice’s surge, go back—because tonight is about damage control or closure.
Rachel: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network. I’m Rachel, and this is your daily Yankees preview. Joining me is Dave. Today: the pitching matchup, the injury report including Aaron Judge’s status, and whether the Yankees can salvage this series against Arizona.
Dave: Right. We’ve got three things coming up. First, who starts on the mound for both clubs? Second, the state of the bullpen with David Bednar and Paul Blackburn facing tough lefty-heavy lineups. And third, the Aaron Judge timeline and what it means for October.
Rachel: Let’s dive into Segment One. The series and the pitching probables. Yesterday, Gerrit Cole was electric. But today? It’s a different battle.
Dave: Yeah, so let’s look at the rotation. For the Yankees, Clarke Schmidt is getting the nod. Remember, I predicted a split earlier in the week, and while Rachel went for the sweep, Schmidt has to keep this close. He’s been solid, but Arizona isn’t playing around anymore.
Rachel: And for Arizona? Max Fried. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. This is a huge test for Schmidt. Can he handle the top of their order? Especially with Cody Bellinger hitting cleanup for the Yanks, how does the defense shift?
Dave: Bellinger is key here. His launch angle against Fried’s slider could be the difference. But defensively, we need Austin Wells to be sharp behind the plate. If Fried is painting the corners, Wells needs to frame perfectly. Any bad calls there, and Schmidt is chasing pitches.
Rachel: Exactly. And let’s talk about the bullpen. After last night’s collapse, can they trust the relief corps? David Bednar is listed as available. That’s a huge boost if he can eat innings.
Dave: Bednar is elite, but you don’t want to overuse him early. Michael Fulmer and John Schreiber are options too. The key is platoon splits. Arizona has some dangerous lefties in the middle of their lineup. If Schmidt goes six innings, Bednar should see action in the seventh.
Rachel: So, Schmidt goes deep, Bednar closes it out? That’s the game plan. But wait—what about Paul Blackburn? He’s listed as a reliever, but his name keeps popping up in trade rumors. Is he stabilizing the late innings?
Dave: Blackburn has been reliable. He’s got good command. But against Arizona’s power hitters, you need velocity. If Blackburn is sitting mid-90s, he’s fine. If he’s missing spots, you pull him. Simple as that. No room for error tonight.
Rachel: Okay, so Schmidt vs. Fried. High stakes. Let’s move to Segment Two: Key hitters, bullpen questions, and the injury report. This is where it gets heavy, folks.
Dave: Injuries. Tyler Locklear, Ryan Thompson, A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, Cristian Mena—all on the 60-day IL. Spencer Jones is day-to-day. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham are on the 10-day IL. Fernando Cruz is 15-day. And Giancarlo Stanton? Still 60-day.
Rachel: That’s a lot of bodies out. But the big news: Aaron Judge. Headlines say he hopes to be back for October, but no definitive timeline. How does that affect tonight’s lineup?
Dave: It affects everything. Without Judge, the heart of the order is Anthony Volpe, Luis Garcia Jr., and Ben Rice. Rice had that offensive surge yesterday. If he can carry that momentum, the Yanks have a chance. But losing Judge’s presence in the dugout is palpable.
Rachel: Spencer Jones is day-to-day. If he’s active, he plays RF. But with Jazz Chisholm out, the outfield depth is thin. Heliot Ramos and Max Schuemann are ready if needed. Do you start them over veterans?
Dave: I’d start Jones if he’s healthy. His speed and defensive range matter against Arizona’s aggressive baserunners. But offensively, we need consistency. Paul Goldschmidt is at first base for the D-backs—he’s a nightmare matchup for anyone. The Yankees’ infielders need to be alert.
Rachel: Goldschmidt is a beast. But let’s talk about the bullpen again. With so many arms out, is the staff stretched too thin? Clarke Schmidt noted that the team is managing workload carefully.
Dave: They are. Cam Schlittler and Will Warren are in the mix if needed. But the real question is Carlos Rodon. He’s a starter, but if the bullpen collapses, do you use him? It’s a risk, but sometimes you have to burn a bridge to save the house.
Rachel: Rodon as a reliever? That’s bold. But with Ryan Yarbrough and Brent Headrick also available, the Yankees have options. It’s about finding the right fit for the situation. Now, before we get to our final segment, I need to ask you something important.
Dave: We love bringing you this content every single day, free from ads and paywalls. To keep the show running and support the work we do, please check out the link in the episode description. Your contribution helps us stay independent and keep delivering the insights you love.
Rachel: Thanks for listening! Now, back to Segment Three. Keys to the series and a bold prediction. Dave, what’s the one thing the Yankees must do to win tonight?
Dave: Plate discipline. Against Max Fried, you can’t chase sliders down and away. You have to lay off the junk and punish the strikes. If the Yanks make contact and drive the ball, they score runs. It’s that simple.
Rachel: Agreed. And defensively, no errors. One mistake, and Arizona capitalizes. My prediction? The Yankees win 4-2. Ben Rice hits a home run, and David Bednar earns the save. I’m sticking with my sweep prediction, even after yesterday’s loss.
Dave: I’ll take the Yankees to win, but I think it’s closer than 4-2. Maybe 3-2. But yes, Bednar gets the save. This team has resilience. They’ll bounce back.
Rachel: We’ll see. Thanks for tuning in to the Beatline Podcast Network. Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review. Go Yankees!