Rachel: The Yankees are down 4-3 in the AL East standings, sitting second behind the division leader, but they are not out of the race yet. After a brutal 5-4 loss to the Twins yesterday that featured Aaron Judge leaving early with leg tightness, the team has to regroup fast. They fly out west tonight for a critical two-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and we need to talk about who is actually healthy enough to play.
Dave: It is a delicate situation. You have Clarke Schmidt coming back from a fourteen-month absence to pitch in relief, which is massive for the bullpen depth, but you also have the elephant in the room regarding Judge’s lower leg. We are going to break down the pitching matchup, look at the injury report that keeps growing, and figure out if this team can win without its best player in the lineup.
Rachel: Here is what we are tackling today. First, we look at the pitching staff adjustments with Schmidt moving to the bullpen and who starts the night game. Second, we dive into the offensive lineup questions—specifically how Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice step up if Judge is sidelined. And third, we give you our keys to winning this series in Arizona and our bold prediction for the outcome.
Dave: Right. And remember, we predicted a 5-2 Yankees win yesterday before the Twins pulled off that 13-inning thriller on Victor Caratini’s single. So clearly, things change fast in this league. Let’s get into it. This is the Beatline Podcast Network, your daily source for everything Yankees baseball.
Rachel: Let’s start with the rotation and the bullpen shuffle. We knew Clarke Schmidt was close, but seeing him activated off the IL after elbow surgery and immediately moved to a bullpen role is a strategic masterstroke by the coaching staff. How do you view that transition?
Dave: It makes perfect sense. He hasn’t thrown in over a year. If they tried to start him out there, you risk re-aggravating the elbow. Putting him in the bullpen allows them to manage his pitch count and get those high-leverage innings. With David Bednar, John Schreiber, and Michael Fulmer already in the mix, adding Schmidt gives them a left-handed option who can eat up frames when the starter gets tired.
Rachel: So, who takes the mound for tonight? We have Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil, Will Warren, Cam Schlittler, and Max Fried on the roster. Who do you want starting against Arizona?
Dave: I’d go with Luis Gil. He’s been electric lately, and facing the Diamondbacks’ middle-of-the-order requires that velocity. Cole is always the ace, but you might want to save him for a bigger spot later in the week. Schlittler has been incredible historically, but if he’s on a short rest or if the coaches want to protect his arm after heavy usage, Gil is the aggressive choice here.
Rachel: Fair point. But let’s talk about the other side of the ball. The injury report is getting long. We know Giancarlo Stanton is on the 60-day IL, Trevor Larnach is day-to-day, and now Aaron Judge is dealing with lower leg tightness after being pulled in the sixth inning yesterday. How does this impact the lineup construction?
Dave: It forces flexibility. If Judge sits, Spencer Jones moves to right field, and Cody Bellinger stays in left. That leaves a hole at DH or first base. Paul Goldschmidt can move around, but having Austin Wells or Ali Sanchez behind the plate changes the defensive alignment. The key is plate discipline; without Judge drawing walks, the other guys have to make contact and drive the ball the other way.
Rachel: Exactly. And we saw yesterday that even when the stars struggle, guys like Luke Keaschall can step up. He went 3-for-5 and scored the winning run for the Twins. Can someone similar happen for the Yankees in this series?
Dave: Absolutely. Ben Rice has shown flashes of power. In our previous predictions, we had him driving in runs, and if the pitching holds up, he could be the one to capitalize on mistakes. Anthony Volpe needs to be more aggressive on the bases too. The Diamondbacks have a strong bullpen, so speed and small ball will be essential.
Rachel: Let’s shift gears to Segment Two. We need to talk about the bullpen usage. With Clarke Schmidt available, how does that change the late-inning strategy against a team like Arizona?
Dave: It opens up the door for Tim Hill or Brent Headrick to work earlier in the game. If Schmidt can go three innings in relief, you can push the closer, David Bednar, to a more traditional setup role or even save him for the ninth. It prevents fatigue in the final outs. The Yankees can’t afford to blow leads in September.
Rachel: But what if the starters don’t go deep? Yesterday, Judge came out in the sixth, and the game went to extra innings. That puts huge pressure on the bullpen. Do you trust this group to hold a lead in Chase Field?
Dave: Chase Field is a hitter’s park. The air is thin, and the ball flies. You need ground balls and weak contact. If the pitchers rely too much on elevated fastballs, they’re going to get hit. I’m worried about the platoon splits. Arizona has some dangerous left-handed hitters. If the Yankees bring in a right-handed reliever against a tough lefty, that’s a mismatch waiting to happen.
Rachel: That’s a great tactical point. Platoon splits are huge. Who do you see as the primary matchup problem for the Yankees’ bullpen tonight?
Dave: Any left-handed bat in their top four. If they have a guy like Corbin Carroll or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., you have to be very careful. I’d rather see Schmidt go in to face those hitters early than wait until the seventh inning. He’s got the stuff to miss bats with both hands in the zone.
Rachel: Okay, let’s talk injuries again because this is critical. Besides Judge, we have Byron Buxton on the 10-day IL for the Twins, but for the Yankees, we have Trent Grisham on the 10-day IL and Kaelen Culpepper on the 10-day IL. Does this affect the defensive range in the outfield?
Dave: Yes. Grisham is an elite defender. Without him, you’re relying on Spencer Jones and Heliot Ramos. Jones has raw power but limited experience. Ramos is good, but they aren’t Gold Glove caliber. If Arizona hits fly balls to the gaps, those runs will score. It’s a defensive liability that the Diamondbacks will exploit.
Rachel: So, the defense needs to be sharper than usual. What about the catching position? Austin Wells and Ali Sanchez are the options. How does that impact the pitching staff?
Dave: Wells has better pop behind the plate, but Sanchez might frame pitches better. For a pitcher like Luis Gil, who relies on movement, framing is crucial. If the catcher can’t manipulate the strike zone, the umpires will call borderline pitches as balls, and the pitcher will fall behind in the count. It’s a subtle but important factor.
Rachel: We’ve covered the pitching, the lineup, and the injuries. Now, let’s wrap up with our keys to the series and our bold prediction. What does the Yankees need to do to win these two games?
Dave: First, they need to win the time-on-base battle. If they get runners on and then strand them, they lose. Second, the bullpen needs to execute the plan with Schmidt. If they use him correctly, they can secure the save. Third, someone other than Judge needs to produce offense. Maybe it’s Paul Goldschmidt or Cody Bellinger stepping up with extra RBIs.
Rachel: I agree. And I think Clarke Schmidt’s debut in relief is the X-factor. If he goes three clean innings, the Yankees win both games. My bold prediction? The Yankees take this series 2-0, with Schmidt picking up the win in the night game.
Dave: I’ll take that. But I’m saying 1-1. The Diamondbacks are tough at home, and if Judge doesn’t play, the offense stalls. I predict a split, with the Yankees winning the first game on pitching and losing the second on a late rally by Arizona.
Rachel: Different takes, same excitement. Before we go, I want to ask for your help. We put fresh analysis together every single day, diving deep into stats, injuries, and matchups. It takes a lot of work to keep this show free and daily. A small contribution helps us keep doing this. Please consider chipping in via the link in the episode description.
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Rachel: If you enjoyed this preview, please subscribe, rate, and review us wherever you listen. Share this episode with a fellow Yankee fan. Stay tuned for our next update on Judge’s status. Go Yankees!