Sarah: The Bronx is loud, the stakes are low for New York but high for the Bronx Bombers, and the Mets are walking into a gauntlet with a bullpen that looks like it was assembled from spare parts. This is Beatline.
Tom: And I’m Tom, alongside Sarah. We’re back in the studio, fresh off that brutal 6-4 loss to the Yankees last night where Cody Bellinger’s three-run homer basically put the game out of reach before Nolan McLean could even settle in.
Sarah: Right. And now, just twenty-four hours later, we’re right back at Yankee Stadium for Game Two of this interleague matchup. The Mets sit at 68-79, fourth in the NL East, while the Yankees are sitting pretty at 85-62 in second place in the AL East. Today we’re breaking down the pitching duel today, looking at the injury report that’s decimating both clubs, and figuring out if Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor can actually keep this competitive against a team that wants to close out their season strong.
Tom: It’s wild how fast this series has turned. Just yesterday we were talking about Manaea starting, and now we’re looking at who comes out of the rotation for the Mets. It’s a different animal when you’re playing your rival every other day. Let’s get into it.
Sarah: Let’s start with the mound. Yesterday, Tom, you predicted a Yankees sweep based on the pitching disparity. Well, the Yankees are certainly looking to prove that right. They’ve got Clarke Schmidt on the IL, which is huge for them, but they also have Devin Williams sidelined. So who is starting today for New York?
Tom: It’s Sean Manaea. Wait, no—looking at the roster list here, Manaea is listed as RP. That changes everything. If he’s in the bullpen, then the Mets are likely turning to Kodai Senga or maybe Zac Thornton. But given the injuries, let’s look at the Yankees side first. They have Fernando Cruz and Reed Garrett on the 60-day IL, plus Cionel Perez and Ryan Weathers on the 15-day. Their bullpen is also picketed apart.
Sarah: Wait, hold on. Did you say Manaea is a reliever now? That’s a massive shift from how we’ve seen him used previously. If he’s in the pen, that’s a huge boost for the Mets’ depth, assuming he’s healthy. But the Yankees are missing Jorge Polanco and Giancarlo Stanton long-term, which hurts their lineup construction significantly.
Tom: Exactly. And that’s the key here. The Yankees’ offense is still potent because of guys like Bellinger—who hit that homer last night—but their defense and bench depth are suffering. For the Mets, the question isn’t just who starts, but who closes. With Trent Grisham on the 10-day IL and Brett Baty day-to-day, the lineup is fluid. Who do you think is getting the nod to start for the Mets today?
Sarah: I’m leaning towards Kodai Senga. He’s been the most consistent starter available. If he goes, it’s about keeping the game close early so the bullpen doesn’t have to work overtime. But with Baty day-to-day and Grisham out, the middle of the order lacks some pop. How does Senga match up against the Yankees' current starters?
Tom: Senga’s curveball has always been his best weapon. Against a Yankees lineup that’s missing some power threats, he should be able to generate swings and misses. But the issue is the command. Last night, McLean struggled to find his spots. If Senga doesn’t hit his spots early, this game gets away from him quickly. The Yankees are hitting .300+ at home recently.
Sarah: That’s the scary part. The Yankees are riding a home win streak, and they’re trying to lock up a playoff spot. Every run counts. If Senga gives up that first big inning, the crowd gets loud, and the Mets’ young arms in the bullpen—Duarte, Lavender, Myers—they don’t have much experience in high-leverage situations against this caliber of opponent.
Tom: Right. And remember, the ABS challenge system tracker shows the Yankees are among the top teams in umpire challenges this year. They’re smart, they’re aggressive, and they know how to manufacture runs. If the Mets aren’t disciplined at the plate, they’ll fall behind early.
Sarah: So, if I’m the Mets’ manager, I need Senga to go deep. At least five or six innings. Then I bring in Robert Stock or Jonathan Pintaro to bridge the gap. But can they handle the pressure? That’s the million-dollar question for tonight’s preview.
Tom: It’s a tall order. But hey, it’s September. Anything can happen. Let’s move on to the hitters.
Sarah: Okay, let’s talk bats. We know Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are carrying the offensive load. After that series win against the Marlins, they were hot. But against the Yankees? It’s a different beast. Lindor has been excellent all year, but Soto... he’s dealing with some platoon splits against left-handed pitching. Do you think he’ll struggle tonight?
Tom: Soto’s OBP is elite regardless of the pitcher. But yes, if the Yankees start a lefty—which they often do in these interleague games—he might see more pitches outside the zone. His patience is his superpower, though. He’ll take the walk, and that’s fine. The real question is who’s batting behind him. With Baty day-to-day, who’s filling in at third base?
Sarah: Bo Bichette is listed at third base for the Mets? That seems odd given his usual position. Or is that a typo in the data? Because Bichette is typically a shortstop. Wait, looking at the roster again... Francisco Lindor is SS, Marcus Semien is 2B. So Bichette must be filling in somewhere else or maybe this is a positional mix-up in the brief. Regardless, the infield is crowded.
Tom: Ah, good catch, Sarah. Yes, Bo Bichette is listed at 3B for the Mets in this specific dataset, which is unusual. Maybe it’s a defensive alignment change. But the point stands: the middle of the order is thick with talent. Lindor, Soto, Semien—that’s a dangerous top three. If they can string together hits, they can score without needing extra-base hits every time.
Sarah: Absolutely. And look at the bottom of the lineup. Mark Vientos and Christopher Morel at first base? That’s some serious power potential. Morel has been swinging the bat well lately. If Vientos and Morel can get on base, Lindor and Soto will feast. But the Yankees’ defense is solid. They won’t make many errors.
Tom: True. But the Yankees are missing Trent Grisham defensively. He’s a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder. Without him, Cristian Pache and Carson Benge have to cover more ground. If the Mets start putting balls in play, especially to the gaps, those defenders are going to be tested. Launch angle matters here. High fly balls might not work, but line drives to the alleys could be deadly.
Sarah: That’s a great tactical point, Tom. Line drives over the infield. If the Mets can aim for the gaps, they can exploit the defensive void left by Grisham. And what about the catchers? Luis Torrens and Francisco Alvarez. Alvarez has shown flashes of brilliance. Can he handle the Yankees’ pitching staff?
Tom: Alvarez is young, but he’s tough. He sees the ball well. The key is pitch selection. If he takes strikes early in the count, he’ll get ahead. If he chases, he’ll get behind. Against a Yankees team that values discipline, Alvarez needs to be patient. I think he’ll have a solid game, but maybe not a huge one. Torrens might be the better matchup if he’s facing a lefty.
Sarah: Alright, so the offense has tools, but the injuries are piling up. We mentioned Baty day-to-day, Grisham out. What about the rest of the roster? Are there any surprise call-ups or internal promotions we should watch for?
Tom: With the 60-day IL spots taken by Stanton, Schmidt, and others, the Mets are running thin. I expect them to stick with the current roster. Guys like A.J. Ewing in center field and Nick Morabito in left are getting extended looks. They’re not stars, but they’re professionals. They’ll try to contribute.
Sarah: It’s a gritty situation. The Mets are fighting for pride while the Yankees fight for positioning. Both teams are banged up. It’s going to be a chess match. Let’s talk about the bullpen again, because that’s where games are won or lost in September.
Tom: Oh, absolutely. The Mets have Daniel Duarte, Nate Lavender, Sean Manaea (if he’s relieved), Tobias Myers, Dedniel Nunez, Jonathan Pintaro, Robert Stock, Austin Warren, Jack Weisenburger. That’s a lot of arms, but few are proven closers. The Yankees have fewer options too, but they have more depth historically. It’s a coin flip in the ninth.
Sarah: A coin flip. I like that. It means anything can happen. If the Mets stay within one run entering the eighth, they have a chance. But if they trail by two, it’s over. The margin for error is non-existent. Okay, let’s wrap up our analysis with some keys to the series.
Tom: Agreed. One thing to note: Bobby Valentine remembered Tom Piazza’s home run for the Mets after 9/11. There’s a historical weight to this date. September 12th. The Yankees want to continue their home win streak, but the Mets have heart. Don’t sleep on the Mets’ resilience.
Sarah: That’s a beautiful reminder, Tom. History matters. Okay, let’s move to Segment Three. Keys to the series and my bold prediction.
Sarah: Here we go. Key Number One: Pitching Depth. The Mets cannot rely on one starter. They need Senga to go six, and they need the bullpen to eat up innings without giving up runs. Key Number Two: Plate Discipline. Against the Yankees’ pitchers, taking walks is crucial. Lindor and Soto lead by example. Key Number Three: Defense. With Grisham out, the outfield must be sharp. No missed cuts.
Tom: I’d add a fourth: Bullpen Management. Don’t burn out your best arms in the seventh. Use the lefty-righty matchups wisely. If the Yankees have a heavy left-handed lineup segment, bring in Pintaro or Stock early. Save the high-leverage guys for the ninth.
Sarah: Smart. Now, my bold prediction. Yesterday, I said the Mets would split or sweep. Yesterday, they lost 6-4. So, I’m adjusting. I predict the Mets win this game 5-4. Lindor hits a clutch single, Soto draws a walk, and the bullpen holds on in the ninth. It’s a gritty, ugly win, but a win.
Tom: Ooh, spicy. You’re sticking with the Mets despite the losses? I’m still calling a Yankees win, but closer. I’ll say 4-3 Yankees. The bullpen fatigue will catch up to New York in the late innings. Bellinger will drive in the go-ahead run. But hey, I love the energy, Sarah.
Sarah: We’ll see who’s right! It’s going to be a tight game. Fans, tune in tonight at 1:35 PM ET. Watch Senga, watch Lindor, watch the bullpen. Who do you think wins? Let us know on social media.
Sarah: Thanks for listening to today’s Beatline episode. We broke down the Mets-Yankees matchup, the injury woes, and the keys to victory. If you enjoyed this breakdown, please subscribe, rate, and review us on your favorite podcast app. It helps more fans find the show.
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Sarah: You heard Tom. Support the show, support the team. Go Mets!