Carly: The regular season is over. The playoffs are someone else’s problem right now. But for the Kansas City Royals, the real work starts tomorrow morning. Vinnie Pasquantino just went off in the finale, the Guardians are celebrating a division title, and we’re left with a roster full of questions that will define 2027.
Doug: It’s a 69-93 finish, Carly. Not pretty. But look at that finale. A three-game skid ends with a win over the AL Central champs. Pasquantino homered twice. That’s not nothing. That’s a statement.
Carly: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Carly, and this is the daily show where we break down the Royals, one play at a time. Doug, you’re here as always, ready to dig into the numbers.
Doug: I am. And honestly, after looking at the box score from Sunday, I think we need to talk about who stays and who goes. Because with a 69-93 record, every roster spot is up for grabs.
Carly: Here’s what we’ve got today. First, we’re tackling the biggest position battle on the team right now. Second, we’re breaking down two more depth-chart fights that could shake up spring training. And third, we’re making our roster cut predictions—who’s trending up, and who’s getting the axe.
Doug: And before we dive in, quick aside. If you found value in yesterday’s mailbag or the analysis on the robot umpires flipping 54% of challenged calls, consider supporting the show. It keeps us free and daily. Just check the link in the episode description. Thanks for listening.
Carly: Let’s jump into Segment One. The most important position battle. We talked about catching yesterday, but today, I want to focus on the infield corner. Specifically, third base. Maikel Garcia vs. Nick Loftin. Who wins that job?
Doug: This is tricky because they played different roles last year. Garcia was everywhere. He started at third, he moved around. Loftin had his moments too. But if we’re talking pure competition for the starting nod at third, Garcia has the defensive pedigree. Loftin is more of a bat-first guy.
Carly: Right. And Josh Rojas is also on the roster. So it’s really a three-way fight? Garcia, Loftin, Rojas?
Doug: Exactly. Rojas gives you versatility. He can play second, third, maybe even some outfield. But if you want a everyday third baseman, Garcia’s arm is elite. Loftin needs to prove he can handle the premium defensive position consistently. Rojas is likely the super-utility piece here.
Carly: So Garcia starts at third. Rojas shifts to second or utility. Loftin... does he make the 40-man?
Doug: Loftin makes the team as a bench bat. But he’s not winning the starting gig over Garcia unless Garcia gets injured. The defense at third is too important. You don’t put a hitter who struggles defensively in there every day.
Carly: Fair point. What about shortstop? Bobby Witt Jr. and Tyler Tolbert. Is Witt’s spot safe?
Doug: Witt is untouchable. He’s an All-Star. Tolbert is a late-inning defender, maybe a platoon option against left-handed pitching, but Witt is the franchise cornerstone. No battle there. Witt plays every day.
Carly: Okay, so Garcia at third, Witt at short. That seems settled. Let’s move to first base. Vinnie Pasquantino. After hitting two homers in the finale against Cleveland, is he the clear starter?
Doug: He should be. Two bombs in the finale isn’t luck. It’s power. Pasquantino has been dealing with injuries all season, but when he’s healthy, he’s a force. The question is durability, not ability.
Carly: Agreed. So Garcia, Witt, Pasquantino. The core is set. Now, let’s look at the outfield. Jac Caglianone, Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, Matthew Lugo, John Rave. That’s five guys for three spots. Who’s the odd man out?
Doug: Caglianone in right. Isbel in center. Collins in left. Those three feel like the best defensive trio. Lugo and Rave are depth pieces. Rave had some good at-bats, but Collins’ raw power is higher upside. I’d say Rave is the most likely to be non-tendered or sent to Omaha.
Carly: Makes sense. Defense first in the outfield. Okay, Segment One done. We’ve got the infield set. Now, Segment Two. Two more battles. Let’s talk catching. Carter Jensen vs. Luke Maile. Salvador Perez is DH, but who’s behind the plate?
Doug: This is huge. Yesterday we talked about how robot umpires change catcher strategy. Catchers were far more successful than batters in challenging calls. Jensen has the arm, Maile has the experience. But Jensen is younger. He’s the future.
Carly: But Maile knows Perez. They have chemistry. Do you go with the veteran who knows the ace, or the rookie who might have better long-term value?
Doug: Perez is aging. We know that. Jensen manages pitchers better. He frames well. I think Jensen wins the primary backup role. Maile becomes a fourth catcher or trades him. You build for 2027, not just 2026.
Carly: So Jensen is #2 behind Perez. Maile is on the bubble. What about the other big battle? The bullpen. Craig Kimbrel, Alex Lange, Lucas Erceg, Spencer Bivens, Mason Black, Jose Cuas, Anthony Gose, Nolan Hoffman, Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, Easton McGee, Nate Pearson, Mitch Spence, Connor Thomas, Beck Way. That’s fifteen arms!
Doug: Fifteen! That’s absurd. The Royals need to trim that fat. Kimbrel is closing, obviously. Lange and Erceg are setup. That’s four guys. Then you have Bivens, Black, Cuas, Hoffman, Gose, McArthur, Pearson, Spence, Thomas, Way, McGee, Lynch. Ten guys fighting for six spots.
Carly: Who stands out to you as safe? Who’s in danger?
Doug: Kimbrel, Lange, Erceg are locks. Bivens has been solid. Black has high strikeout rates. Cuas is reliable. That’s six. Gose, Hoffman, McArthur, Pearson, Spence, Thomas, Way, McGee, Lynch are fighting for the last few spots. I’d say Gose and McArthur have the best stuff. They might get cut to save money.
Carly: So the bullpen is going to take a hit. Maybe a trade? Remember, we predicted bullpen reinforcement in the offseason.
Doug: Absolutely. They’ll clear out veterans to bring up prospects. Or trade for a reliever. The rotation is okay, but the pen is bloated. They need to streamline it.
Carly: Got it. Catching: Jensen over Maile. Bullpen: Trim the fat. Next up, Segment Three. Roster-cut predictions. Who’s trending up? Who’s trending down?
Doug: Trending up: Vinnie Pasquantino. Two homers in the finale. He showed he’s still dangerous. Also, Bobby Witt Jr. Always trending up. He’s the face of the franchise.
Carly: What about the starters? Seth Lugo, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Wacha, Randy Dobnak, Carlos Duran, Ben Kudrna, Steven Zobac, Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert. That’s nine starters.
Doug: Lugo and Gonsolin are anchors. Wacha is solid. Dobnak and Duran are innings eaters. Kudrna is young. Cameron, Bergert, Zobac are depth. I think Zobac and Bergert are the ones who might not make the Opening Day roster. They’re options.
Carly: So Lugo, Gonsolin, Wacha, Dobnak, Duran, Kudrna are the top six. Cameron is the seventh. Bergert and Zobac are out?
Doug: Pretty much. Unless one of them shows something in winter ball. But right now, they’re surplus. The Royals have more arms than they need.
Carly: Interesting. So the plan is: keep the core, trim the bullpen, add a starter or two in free agency? That aligns with our 79-win projection for 2027.
Doug: Exactly. Finish 4th in the AL Central. Win 79 games. It’s realistic. They have the talent, they just need to manage the roster smarter.
Carly: We’ll see. One final thought. The robot umpire system. How does that impact these roster decisions? Does it favor certain types of players?
Doug: It favors disciplined hitters. Players who don’t chase. Pasquantino thrived because he drew walks. Witt thrives because he makes contact. Less margin for error for bad pitchers. That’s why the bullpen cuts are coming. Bad pitchers get exposed faster.
Carly: That’s it for today! We broke down the infield battles, the catching decision, the bullpen purge, and the starting rotation cuts. The Royals have a lot of work to do, but the foundation is there.
Doug: Yeah. If they fix the bullpen and keep Pasquantino healthy, 79 wins is very possible. Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review. Share this with a Royals fan who needs hope.
Carly: Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network. Go Royals!