Paige: The Houston Astros are sitting pretty at first in the AL West, but their roster looks like a casualty report from a war zone. We’ve lost Corbin Burnes, Carlos Correa, and half the bullpen to the IL, and now they’re flying into Philadelphia to face the second-place Phillies.
Craig: It’s a thin rotation and a depleted lineup. But this is Houston. They don’t panic; they adapt. Tonight, we break down how they plan to survive three games against an elite National League team with so many holes.
Paige: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, America’s number one daily sports podcast! I’m Paige, and I’m joined by Craig. If you missed our last few shows, we talked about the brutal losses to Arizona and predicted a series win that didn’t happen. Today, we look ahead to the next test.
Craig: That’s right. Last night, the Diamondbacks edged us out 3-2 on a Nolan Arenado homer, and before that, Gabriel Moreno broke our hearts in the 10th. So, here is what we are covering tonight: First, the pitching matchup against the Phillies. Second, who is actually hitting for us with Correa and Burnes gone. And third, our keys to winning this series.
Paige: Let’s get right into it. The Astros travel to Citizens Bank Park tonight. The Phillies are 81-63, sitting second in the NL East. They are playing better baseball than us right now. Who is starting for Houston?
Craig: Hunter Brown takes the mound. It’s his turn in the rotation. Now, normally, Brown is a solid arm, but when you look at the depth chart, he’s one of the few healthy starters left. We have Tatsuya Imai, Peter Lambert, and Ethan Pecko behind him, but none of them have established themselves as true aces yet.
Paige: And on the other side? The Phillies are going to be tough. They have a deep lineup. We know how dangerous they can be in Philadelphia. Do you think Brown can keep this close?
Craig: I think he has to rely on defense. Houston’s infield is still good. Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve are there. But the issue is pitch count. If Brown goes too long, who do you call on? The bullpen is decimated.
Paige: Right. Let’s talk about that bullpen because it’s scary. We have Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Ronel Blanco. Those are big names. But then you look at the IL list and see Brice Matthews, Craig Burrows, Steven Okert, Brandon Walter... it’s just empty spots.
Craig: Exactly. You have Michael Soroka and Zac Gallen on the 60-day, which is weird because those are pitchers who might not even be on the 40-man or are rehabbing elsewhere. But the point is, you can’t trust the middle innings. If Brown gives up a run in the fifth, you’re relying heavily on Hader and Abreu early.
Paige: So the strategy has to be short outings. Get Brown through five, maybe six, and then go to the closers. That puts a huge load on Hader. He’s been great all year, but can he handle back-to-back high-leverage nights?
Craig: He can. Josh Hader is an anomaly. His stuff doesn’t fade. But if the game goes to extra innings, which it might against a team like Philadelphia, then you’re calling on Enyel De Los Santos or Bennett Sousa. They are fill-ins. That’s where games are won or lost in September.
Paige: Okay, so we need the starters to eat innings. Let’s shift gears to the offense. With Carlos Correa on the 60-day IL, the middle of the order is different. Who is carrying the bat?
Craig: Yordan Alvarez is the anchor. He’s always there. But we also need Yainer Diaz to step up. Remember, two days ago, we said Diaz would hit a clutch single in the seventh inning against Arizona. He didn’t. The D-Backs won 3-2. But against the Phillies, Diaz needs to be aggressive.
Paige: And Jose Altuve. We predicted he’d hit another homer against Arizona, and unfortunately, that didn’t happen either. The Astros lost both games to Arizona. How do we get Altuve going against Philadelphia?
Craig: Plate discipline. The Phillies have great pitchers. Altuve needs to work counts. If he chases sliders away, he’s out. But if he makes them throw strikes, he can drive gaps. Christian Vazquez is catching him, so the battery needs to be sharp.
Paige: Vazquez is a veteran presence. That helps. What about the rest of the lineup? We have Isaac Paredes at third, Nick Allen at short. Is there power anywhere else?
Craig: Cam Smith in right field. He’s got pop. Taylor Trammell and Nelson Velazquez in left give us some speed. Jorge Barrosa and Daulton Varsho in center. It’s a fast outfield. If they can manufacture runs, they can beat the Phillies’ power.
Paige: Manufacturing runs. That sounds like the only way. Big hits aren’t guaranteed right now. Let’s move to Segment Two. We’ve talked pitching and hitting. Now let’s dig into the injuries again, because this list is haunting us.
Craig: It is. Look at the list: Corbin Burnes, Carlos Correa, Brice Matthews, Craig Burrows, Steven Okert, Brandon Walter, Michael Soroka, Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Thompson. That is a massive amount of talent missing.
Paige: Zac Gallen and Ryne Nelson? Those are Diamondbacks players on the injury list too, interestingly enough. But for Houston, losing Burnes and Correa is catastrophic. They were our best pitcher and best shortstop. Who fills those roles?
Craig: Peter Lambert or Ethan Pecko in the rotation. And Jeremy Pena is holding down shortstop, which is good because he’s Gold Glove caliber. But offensively, the drop-off is real. Without Correa, there’s no consistent run producer in the cleanup spot unless Alvarez moves over.
Paige: So Alvarez might move around. Does that help or hurt? Usually, you want him in the heart of the order.
Craig: It hurts the protection. If Alvarez is batting fourth, and there’s nobody else getting on base, pitchers will nibble at him. We need Altuve and Diaz to get on base. Then Alvarez can drive them in. It’s a chain reaction.
Paige: Chain reaction. I like that. What about the bullpen guys who ARE there? Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu. Are they tired? It’s September. They’ve been working hard all season.
Craig: Hader is a workhorse. He’ll be fine. Abreu is durable too. But AJ Blubaugh and Bryan King are younger arms. If you have to use them, they need to execute. No wild pitches. No errors. Every pitch matters when your margin for error is zero.
Paige: Zero margin for error. That’s the theme. So, against the Phillies, who are the key matchups we should watch? Who is going to decide this series?
Craig: Hunter Brown vs. the Phillies’ top of the order. If Brown can strike out their leadoff hitter, it sets the tone. Also, Yainer Diaz vs. the Phillies’ starters. Diaz has shown flashes of brilliance. If he finds his swing, he can take a game away from Philadelphia.
Paige: Diaz taking a game away. Yes. And what about the dugout? Who is managing this crisis? Dusty Baker is experienced, but can he navigate a roster this thin?
Craig: Baker knows how to manage playoffs. This feels like a playoff preview. He’ll make the calls. He’ll pull Brown early if needed. He’ll use Hader in the sixth if he has to. It’s about being aggressive when you’re undermanned.
Paige: Aggressive. Okay, Segment Three. Keys to the series. We have three games in Philadelphia. The Astros are 73-71, first in the AL West. The Phillies are 81-63, second in the NL East. What does Houston need to do to steal two wins?
Craig: Number one: Pitching efficiency. Your starters must go at least six innings. If Hunter Brown goes five, you better have a run lead. Number two: Contact hitting. Don’t chase strikeouts. Put the ball in play. Use the speed of Barrosa and Trammell.
Paige: Speed and contact. Got it. Number three?
Craig: Defense. Zero errors. Jeremy Pena cannot make a mistake. Yainer Diaz cannot miss a catch. In tight games, defense wins championships. Or at least, it keeps you in the game when your offense is quiet.
Paige: Defense wins. Okay, Craig, it’s time for our bold prediction. We predicted the Astros would win the series against Arizona three games to one. We lost both games. We predicted a 3-2 win yesterday, and lost 3-2. So, what is your call for Philadelphia?
Craig: I’m going to say the Astros win the series two games to one. It’s counterintuitive given the injuries, but Hunter Brown steps up, Yordan Alvarez hits two home runs, and Josh Hader shuts the door in Game 3.
Paige: Two games to one. Bold. Very bold. I like it. Alvarez with two homers. I’ll take that. Alright, fans, we’ve covered the pitching, the injuries, the hitters, and the keys to victory. Before we go, we need to ask for your help.
Paige: If these daily breakdowns are part of your morning routine or commute, a small tip is exactly what keeps them coming. Please consider chipping in via the link in the episode description to help us stay free and daily.
Craig: We appreciate every single listener. Your support means everything to us. Thank you for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network.
Paige: Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review wherever you get your podcasts. Share this episode with a fellow Astro fan. Let’s get these wins!
Craig: Up in Houston.
Paige: Up in Houston! Thanks for tuning in, everyone. See you tomorrow.