Brooke: You are listening to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we break down every pitch, every play, and every playoff race. I’m Brooke.
Tony: And I’m Tony. We’re right here in Cincinnati, looking at a series that could define the final month of this season.
Brooke: Welcome to the daily show! Before we get into the weeds today, let’s look at what we’ve got coming up. First, we’re breaking down the pitching matchup for tonight’s rubber match against the Chicago Cubs. Second, we’re talking about the offensive struggles and who is actually stepping up with the roster so thin. And third, we’ll give you our bold prediction for how this series ends. But first... did you see that box score from yesterday?
Tony: I saw it. It was painful. The Cubs beat the Reds 5-2 on Saturday. Matthew Boyd finally broke his six-start winless streak, and Dansby Swanson hit his first home run since returning from the injured list. It felt like a statement game for Chicago as they move closer to that second straight playoff berth.
Brooke: Right. And now? They’re back here in Cincinnati for Game Three. The Cubs are sitting at 86-69, second in the NL Central. The Reds? They’re 72-83, fifth in the division. The gap is real. But there is one thing going for Cincinnati: desperation. Let’s dive into Segment One.
Brooke: Okay, let’s talk pitching. This is usually where I ask Tony to pull out the spin rates and the velocity charts, but given the injury situation, the rotation options are... limited. Who do we have on the mound tonight?
Tony: It’s tough, Brooke. With Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Rhett Lowder all dealing with various issues or resting, the Reds are leaning heavily on Brady Singer. He’s been a stabilizer in a chaotic year. Against the Cubs, though, it’s a scary spot. Chicago has been aggressive on the bases and patient at the plate.
Brooke: Brady Singer. Okay. I remember us talking about him last week against the Dodgers, hoping he could keep the team in the game. If he doesn’t go deep into this, the bullpen is going to be taxed even more than it already is. What’s the risk here?
Tony: The risk is exactly what happened on Friday. You know, Jose Trevino lined that two-run single to right field with the bases loaded in the sixth inning, and the Reds rallied for a 6-4 victory over the Cubs. That was huge. But then Saturday night? The offense went quiet. If Singer gets hit early, you don’t have the depth to absorb the damage.
Brooke: That rally on Friday! Trevino with the clutch hit. It showed that when the bats wake up, they can hang with these guys. But Saturday was different. The Cubs seemed to have their heads on a swivel, and they capitalized. How does Cincinnati stop the five-game road skid for Chicago?
Tony: Actually, wait, hold on. The headline says the Cubs are aiming to stop a five-game road skid. So they’re desperate too. They need this win to secure that playoff berth. That means they’re not just playing for pride; they’re playing for their season. That raises the stakes for everyone on the field.
Brooke: So it’s a must-win for both sides, essentially. The Cubs to lock up a spot, the Reds to prove they aren’t done fighting for relevance. If Singer goes eight innings, maybe we see something different. But if he leaves early, we’re looking at a bullpen game.
Tony: Exactly. And that brings us to the relief corps. Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan, Brock Burke, Graham Ashcraft. They’ve been carrying the load all year. But with the injuries piling up, fatigue is a major factor. We talked about this yesterday—how thin the roster is. It’s not just about who is healthy; it’s about who has fresh legs.
Brooke: We did. And speaking of injuries, the list is staggering. Spencer Steer, Michael Toglia, Blake Dunn, Justin Steele, Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Tyler Austin, Gavin Hollowell, Julian Garcia. That’s nearly half the active roster missing in action. How does that impact the defensive positioning?
Tony: It forces managers to play small ball defensively. You can’t afford to leave gaps in the outfield or shift aggressively if you don’t have the range to cover it. With Elly De La Cruz still around, sure, he has the tools. But without support behind him, every mistake is magnified. The Cubs are going to test those seams.
Brooke: A penalty for poor defense? Maybe. But honestly, it’s just hard to build cohesion when people are out for months. Let’s move to Segment Two. We need to talk about the hitters. Who is actually producing for Cincinnati right now?
Tony: Well, Elly De La Cruz is obviously the centerpiece. We mentioned his recent impact last week. He’s the only guy who can change the game with one swing or one steal. But beyond him? It’s been a struggle. Eugenio Suarez is trying to anchor the middle of the order, and Matt McLain has been consistent at second base.
Brooke: McLain and Suarez. Those are reliable names. But what about the new additions? I see Oswaldo Cabrera and Ke'Bryan Hayes listed on the roster. Are they getting significant playing time?
Tony: They are. Cabrera at third and Hayes also capable there—it creates some flexibility. But defensively, moving players around like that can lead to errors. Offensively, they provide depth. If Suarez sits, Cabrera steps in. It’s not ideal, but it’s necessary. The key is platoon splits. The Cubs’ lefties are tough. You need right-handed bats ready to come off the bench.
Brooke: Platoon splits. Right. That’s always the killer. If the Cubs start a lefty, and the Reds don’t have the matching bat, the inning stalls. Did we see that happen Saturday? The offense seemed pretty dormant after the first couple of innings.
Tony: It was. After Trevino’s big hit on Friday, you expect momentum. But Saturday, the Cubs’ pitching was sharp. They kept the Reds off balance. Launch angles were low, contact quality was mediocre. Without Steer in the lineup to drive the ball in the gaps, the center fielders had an easy day.
Brooke: Steer being out on the 60-day IL is a massive blow. His power numbers were crucial for this team. Now, Carlos Jorge and Dane Myers are in center. They’re young, they’re fast, but do they have the power to punish mistakes? Or will they just try to bunt and steal?
Tony: They’ll likely focus on speed and contact. That’s the Reds’ identity right now. Speed on the bases, defense in the field. But against a team like the Cubs, who are fighting for playoffs, you need power. You need extra-base hits. Otherwise, you’re just manufacturing runs, and that’s risky against elite pitching.
Brooke: Manufacturing runs. That sounds like a recipe for heartbreak. Like we said yesterday, the Reds need early offensive production. If they can’t get the first run across, the pressure mounts on the bullpen. And the bullpen is tired. We talked about Santillan potentially securing a save last time, but he’s been busy. Is he available tonight?
Tony: He might be. If the game is close, Tony Santillan is your go-to guy. He’s had moments of brilliance. But you have to manage his workload carefully. If he throws too many pitches, you risk blowing him out for the rest of the season. It’s a balancing act. Do you trust him in the ninth, or do you save him for a higher leverage spot later?
Brooke: That’s the manager’s dilemma. Every decision feels like a coin flip because the margin for error is zero. Let’s move to Segment Three. We need to look at the keys to the series. What has to happen for Cincinnati to win this rubber match?
Tony: Key number one: Pitching efficiency. If Brady Singer can go seven innings and allow three runs or fewer, the Reds have a chance. Key number two: Elly De La Cruz needs to be disruptive. Not just hitting, but stealing bases, taking extra bases. Force the Cubs’ pitcher to deal with him constantly.
Brooke: Disruptive. I love that word. Because when Elly is moving, the whole defense has to adjust. It creates hesitation. And hesitation leads to mistakes. But Tony, what about the mental aspect? The Reds have lost two straight to these guys. The mood in the clubhouse must be heavy.
Tony: It is. But sometimes, losing streaks break when a team stops thinking and starts playing. Remember Friday? They rallied. They didn’t quit. That resilience is there. The key is to carry that energy into Saturday night. Don’t let the previous day’s loss weigh them down. Play free. Attack the strike zone.
Brooke: Play free. That’s easier said than done. But if they can do that, and if the bullpen holds up, there’s a path. Now, I have to ask for the bold prediction. We predicted a 4-3 win for the Reds against the Dodgers. We predicted a 4-3 win against the Cubs last time. And we predicted the Cubs would win 5-3 yesterday. What are we saying tonight?
Tony: Okay, okay. Last time, I said the Cubs would exploit the thin bullpen in the late innings. They did. So, tonight? I think the Reds snap the skid. But not by much. I’m going with a 5-4 Reds victory. Elly De La Cruz hits a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the ninth. It’s chaotic, it’s messy, but Cincinnati gets the W.
Brooke: A walk-off! I’m skeptical, but I’m buying it. Because why not? Why not believe in the upset? The Cubs are tired from the road trip. The Reds are at home. The energy is electric. Let’s go with it. A 5-4 Reds win. Elly De La Cruz saves the day again.
Brooke: There you have it. A 5-4 Reds win, powered by Elly De La Cruz and a resilient pitching performance from Brady Singer. Thanks for joining us on the Beatline Podcast Network.
Tony: We covered the pitching matchup, the injury concerns, and the keys to victory. Make sure you tune in tomorrow for another update.
Brooke: Before we go, we want to say thank you. Our show is completely free, with no ads and no paywall. Listener support is what protects that freedom and keeps us able to bring you daily analysis like this. If you enjoy what we do, please chip in at the link in the episode description.
Tony: Every bit helps. It allows us to stay independent and focused on the game you love. We appreciate every single one of you.
Brooke: Please subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen. Share this episode with a friend who needs some Reds hope. Go Reds!