Brooke: Elly De La Cruz just lit up the Dodgers for two runs, but the real story isn’t the home run—it’s who is actually left to play for Cincinnati. With half the roster on injured list and a division rival coming into town, this series against the Cubs feels like a final exam.
Brooke: Welcome to Beatline, America’s number one daily sports podcast network. I’m Brooke, and as always, I’m joined by Tony Santillan—wait, no, that’s our pitcher. I’m joined by Tony, our lead analyst. Tony, thanks for being here.
Tony: Good to be here, Brooke. It’s a heavy week for the Reds, no doubt about it. We’ve got a lot to unpack before the Chicago Cubs take the field tonight.
Brooke: It really is. So, here is what we are covering today. First, we’ll look at the pitching matchup and how Cincinnati handles the pressure with their limited rotation depth. Second, we’ll break down the offensive lineup, specifically the injury impact on guys like Spencer Steer and Michael Toglia. And finally, we’ll give you our keys to the series and a bold prediction for tonight’s game.
Brooke: Let’s start with the big picture. The Reds just dropped Game Four to the Dodgers, 8-2. Kyle Tucker had four hits in that loss. But now, they turn around and face the Cubs, who are 85-68 and sitting second in the NL Central. This isn’t just another mid-week game; it’s a must-win situation if Cincinnati wants to stay relevant in the standings.
Tony: Right. And looking at the record, Cincinnati is 71-82, fifth in the division. They are out of playoff contention, sure, but pride matters. However, the pitching staff is the real concern. Last night, they gave up eight runs. Tonight, they need to lock down early.
Brooke: So, who starts tonight? The roster shows Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Rhett Lowder, Chase Burns, and Brandon Williamson available as starters. Who do you think gets the nod?
Tony: Given the recent workload and the need to protect young arms, I’d bet on either Rhett Lowder or Chase Burns. Both have shown flashes, but neither has been consistent over a full season. The manager might go with Lowder to try and keep things fresh, but against a Cubs lineup that’s been aggressive all year, that’s a risky move.
Brooke: That’s a fair point. If Lowder goes, he needs to get ahead of the count. The Cubs don’t make mistakes easily. But let’s talk about the bullpen. You mentioned protecting young arms, which means the relievers have to work harder.
Tony: Exactly. The bullpen is stacked with arms like Tejay Antone, Graham Ashcraft, Brock Burke, Julian Garcia, Pierce Johnson, Luis Mey, Emilio Pagan, and Tony Santillan. That’s a lot of bodies, but it also means they are using guys who might not be in their preferred roles. Tony Santillan is usually a closer, but if the starter struggles, he could be stretched into middle relief.
Brooke: And that’s the danger. If the starter goes six innings, that’s fine. But if he goes four, you’re burning through your best relievers too early. We saw that with the Dodgers series. Elly De La Cruz hit a homer to delay their clinch, but the pitching couldn’t hold the lead consistently.
Tony: Right. And against Chicago, you can’t afford those lapses. The Cubs are playing for position in the division. They are motivated. If Cincinnati’s starting pitcher doesn’t have his stuff, the bullpen is going to be exposed. We need to see strong plate discipline from the Reds hitters to keep the pitch count down.
Brooke: So, the key for the Reds is early offense. If they can score in the first three innings, they can let the starter breathe. But with so many injuries, is that realistic?
Tony: It’s a challenge. But Elly De La Cruz is back and healthy. He’s the engine. If he gets on base, he creates chaos. But he needs protection. And that brings us to the second segment: the lineup and the injury crisis.
Brooke: This is the part that hurts. Let’s look at the injury report. Spencer Steer is on the 10-Day IL. Michael Toglia is on the 60-Day IL. Blake Dunn is on the 60-Day IL. Hunter Greene is on the 60-Day IL. Edwin Diaz is on the 15-Day IL. Gavin Stone is on the 60-Day IL. Jake Cousins is on the 60-Day IL. Dalton Rushing is on the 10-Day IL. And Andy Pages is on the 10-Day IL.
Tony: Wow. That is a staggering amount of missing talent. Hunter Greene and Edwin Diaz are two of the most dynamic players in baseball. Their absence changes everything. Without Greene’s velocity, the opposing teams sit on certain pitches. Without Diaz’s closing ability, the late-game scenarios are terrifying.
Brooke: And Steer and Toglia are key pieces in the middle of the order. Steer provides power and consistency. Toglia, when healthy, is a force in the dirt. Now, who is actually playing tonight?
Tony: Looking at the active roster, you have Elly De La Cruz at shortstop. He’s the MVP candidate everyone talks about. Then you have Ke'Bryan Hayes at third base, Matt McLain at second, Sal Stewart at first. In the outfield, you have JJ Bleday, TJ Friedl, Carlos Jorge, Dane Myers, and Hector Rodriguez. And behind the plate, Tyler Stephenson, Will Banfield, and Jose Trevino.
Brooke: So, De La Cruz is the focal point. But who is hitting cleanup? Or leading off? With Steer out, the batting order is fluid.
Tony: I expect Eugenio Suarez to DH and bat near the top or middle. He’s experienced. And Elly De La Cruz will likely lead off. His speed is a weapon. If he gets on, he forces the defense to react. But the question is: can the rest of the lineup generate enough power without Steer and Toglia?
Brooke: That’s the big question. JJ Bleday has been solid, but he needs support. TJ Friedl is gritty, but he’s not a power hitter. This feels like a series where every run matters. One bad inning, and the game is gone.
Tony: Agreed. And defensively, with so many call-ups or fringe players, there might be some rust. Carlos Jorge and Dane Myers in center field? They’re talented, but they haven’t played together much. Communication errors could lead to extra bases. The Cubs love to exploit gaps.
Brooke: So, defensive positioning will be crucial. Tony, you talked about platoon splits earlier. How does that play into tonight’s matchup?
Tony: The Cubs have a mix of lefty and righty hitters. If Cincinnati starts a lefty, they need to be careful with right-handed power hitters. If they start a righty, they need to watch for lefty pull hitters. Given the injuries, the Reds might not have the luxury of matching up perfectly. They’ll have to rely on general execution.
Brooke: General execution. That sounds like a tall order. But Elly De La Cruz can change a game in an instant. Remember his homer against the Dodgers? That kept the hope alive. Can he do it again?
Tony: He can. But one homer doesn’t win a series. The team needs to contribute. If De La Cruz strikes out, or gets thrown out stealing, the momentum shifts. It’s about balance. And right now, the Reds lack balance due to injuries.
Brooke: Balance is hard to find when half your roster is hurt. Let’s move to our final segment: Keys to the series and a bold prediction. What does Cincinnati need to do to win tonight?
Tony: Three keys. Number one: Pitching efficiency. The starter needs to throw at least 95 pitches. If he goes deeper, great. But if he needs five pitchers to finish, that’s a red flag. Number two: Speed on the bases. De La Cruz and maybe Matt McLain need to steal bases or take extra bases. Force the error. Number three: Early runs. Score in the first three innings. Don’t let the Cubs settle into a rhythm.
Brooke: I love that. Speed and early offense. It plays to their strengths and masks their weaknesses. What about the Cubs? What are they doing right?
Tony: They are playing disciplined baseball. They aren’t chasing pitches. They are waiting for mistakes. And defensively, they are sharp. They don’t make unforced errors. If Cincinnati gives them free passes, the Cubs will punish them.
Brooke: So, bold prediction time. I’m going to say this: Elly De La Cruz hits another clutch hit tonight. Maybe not a homer, but a double or a walk-off single. He’s too dangerous to ignore.
Tony: I’ll go bolder. I think the Reds win this game. Not by a lot, but they win. 4-3. Something happens in the ninth. Tony Santillan comes in, shuts the door, and gets the save. The energy in the stadium will carry them through the fatigue.
Brooke: A 4-3 Reds win with a Santillan save? That’s a bold take. I respect it. It’s going to be a tight game. The injuries are real, but so is the desire to beat a division rival.
Tony: Desire counts. Especially when the talent is thin. If they execute the small things, they can pull this off. But if they get sloppy, the Cubs will bury them.
Brooke: We covered the pitching matchups, the injury crisis affecting Steer and Toglia, and why Elly De La Cruz is the key to tonight’s victory. Thanks for listening to Beatline.
Brooke: Before we go, a quick note. If these daily breakdowns are part of your morning routine or commute, a small tip via the link in the episode description is what keeps us coming to you with honest, deep analysis every single day. It helps keep the show free and daily. We appreciate you.
Tony: Subscribe, rate, and review. Share this with a fellow Reds fan. Let’s get behind this team.
Brooke: Go Reds!