Brooke: You are listening to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we break down every pitch, every play, and every moment that matters in baseball. I’m Brooke, and I am joined by my partner in crime, Tony Santillan... wait, no, Tony is the analyst. I’m joined by Tony.
Tony: Good evening, everyone. It’s a tough spot for the Reds tonight. We’re looking at a series finale against Milwaukee, and honestly, the margin for error has been nonexistent all week.
Brooke: That is right. And before we dive into the pitching matchup, I want to say something quick. If you’ve enjoyed our deep dives into this team’s struggles and triumphs, please consider supporting us. If today’s episode gave you even one new insight or just made your commute better, chip in via the link in the episode description. It keeps the show free and daily for all of you. Now, let’s talk about last night.
Tony: Last night was brutal. A 13-9 loss. Garrett Mitchell went four-for-five with a homer and four RBIs. The Brewers scored all thirteen runs in the first five innings. That is not a game you come back from easily.
Brooke: It’s devastating. So here is what we are covering tonight: First, we break down the pitching matchup for tonight’s series finale. Second, we look at who is actually available to hit given the massive injury list, including Spencer Steer and Matt McLain. And third, we give you our keys to the series and a bold prediction for this final game. Let’s get into it.
Brooke: Okay, Tony. We are at American Family Field. The Reds are 69-79, sitting fifth in the NL Central. The Brewers are 93-56, first in the division. They have already clinched a playoff spot after that 20-0 rout earlier in the week. Tonight is Game Three. Who is on the mound for Milwaukee?
Tony: Milwaukee is going with Garrett Mitchell starting? No, wait, that’s wrong. Mitchell is an outfielder. The headlines mention Mitchell leading the way offensively, but for the pitcher, they are likely leaning on their rotation depth. Given the blowout nature of the previous games, they might be protecting arms. But the Reds are sending out someone from their depleted staff.
Brooke: Right, Mitchell is hitting fourth or leading the lineup. For Cincinnati, the injury report is a mess. Hunter Greene is on the 60-Day IL. Bryse Wilson, Grant Anderson, Rob Zastryzny, Michael Toglia, Blake Dunn, Quinn Priester—all out. Brandon Woodruff is also out. So who is left? Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder, Brady Singer, Brandon Williamson.
Tony: It’s a revolving door. Last night, Andrew Abbott took the ball. He got shelled. The Brewers poured it on early. If Abbott starts again, or if they go to Brady Singer, there is a lot of pressure. The Reds’ rotation is basically anyone who can throw strikes. You have to wonder if they are trying to save someone for a future start or if they are just throwing darts at the board.
Brooke: It feels like desperation. In the last two episodes, we talked about how the Dodgers exposed them, and then the Brewers did the same. The ABS challenge system tracker shows that umpire calls have been tricky, but this is more about execution. Tony, when you look at the Brewers’ offense, which player do you fear most tonight besides Mitchell?
Tony: Chourio. The headlines mention Chourio leading the Brewers against the Reds after a four-hit outing. She is dangerous. Combined with Mitchell’s power, you have a top-of-the-order that is clicking. If the Reds’ starter gives up early runs, as he did last night, the bullpen gets gassed. And the Reds’ bullpen is also decimated.
Brooke: Exactly. Tejay Antone, Graham Ashcraft, Brock Burke, Julian Garcia, Pierce Johnson, Luis Mey, Emilio Pagan, Tony Santillan. That’s the list. But you can’t rely on them all in one game. If the starter goes only three innings, you’re asking too much of those relievers. This series has been a struggle. Remember our predictions from Friday? We thought the Reds would win Game One 4-3.
Tony: And we were wrong. Wrong on both counts. I predicted Milwaukee would take two of three. You said the Reds would steal one. Well, Milwaukee took Game Two easily, and they are looking to sweep tonight. The momentum is entirely with the Brewers. The Reds need a complete game performance to have any chance.
Brooke: A complete game seems like a tall order. But if they don’t get it, the season ends on a sour note. Let’s move to Segment Two. We need to talk about the hitters. Spencer Steer is on the 10-Day IL. Matt McLain is day-to-day. Elly De La Cruz is the only true superstar left in the middle of the order. How does the Reds’ offense function without Steer and potentially McLain?
Tony: It becomes a contact-and-speed game. With Elly De La Cruz, you always have the threat of extra-base hits and steals. But without Steer’s power protection, pitchers can attack De La Cruz more aggressively. You see Juan Brito at second base, Ke’Bryan Hayes at third, Sal Stewart at first. These are solid defenders, but do they have the bat to drive in runs against a hungry Brewers team?
Brooke: I worry about plate discipline. Last night, the Reds struck out enough times to fill a bus. The Brewers’ pitching staff isn’t the best in the world, but they capitalized on mistakes. JJ Bleday in left, TJ Friedl in center, Carlos Jorge and Dane Myers in the outfield mix. Hector Rodriguez in right. Eugenio Suarez at DH. They need to make contact.
Tony: Platoon splits matter here. The Brewers will definitely try to exploit matchups against the Reds’ left-handed hitters if they can. With Matt McLain questionable, if he sits, who takes over second base? Juan Brito? That changes the defensive alignment and possibly the batting order. It’s a domino effect. Every injury forces a tactical adjustment.
Brooke: And the catchers. Will Banfield, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino. Tyler Stephenson is usually the anchor. If he’s healthy, he helps control the strike zone. But with the roster so thin, you can’t afford injuries to the catching corps either. Tony, what’s the biggest question mark for the Reds tonight?
Tony: The bullpen usage. If the starter doesn’t go five innings, who closes? Tony Santillan is their closer, but he’s young. Relying on him in a garbage-time game where you’re down by five runs is risky. You don’t want to burn him if the season is effectively over for the standings. But if they keep it close, you have to use him. It’s a dilemma.
Brooke: It really is. And that’s why the early innings are so critical. The Brewers scored five runs in the first inning last night. That’s the killer. If the Reds can stay in the game through the first three innings, they have a shot. But the mental toll of losing 13-9 cannot be understated. Do you think they bounce back, or is the spirit broken?
Tony: Spirit is fragile. But these are young players. Elly De La Cruz, Andrew Abbott—they are building their careers. Sometimes you have to swallow the bitter pill and move on. I hope they find some joy in playing well individually, even if the team result isn’t there. But tactically, they need to tighten up the defense. No easy outs wasted.
Brooke: Let’s get into Segment Three. Keys to the series. If the Reds want to avoid the sweep and salvage some pride, what needs to happen? I’m thinking Elly De La Cruz needs to be aggressive on the bases. Stealing bases puts pressure on the pitcher and the catcher.
Tony: Agreed. Speed is their best weapon right now. Power is limited with Steer out. So, bunt hits, sacrifice flies, stealing second. Make the Brewers work. Also, the Reds’ starters need to limit walks. The Brewers don’t strike out a ton. If you walk two guys, you’re likely giving up a run. Pitch to contact, trust the defense behind you.
Brooke: Trust the defense. Ke’Bryan Hayes is a Gold Glove caliber third baseman. If he makes one good play, it saves a run. But you need everyone to execute. What about the pitching? Who should start tonight? I’m guessing it’s a rest day for Abbott, maybe Brady Singer gets the nod?
Tony: Brady Singer has upside. If he’s sharp, he can keep it close. Or maybe Rhett Lowder. They need innings. The ABS challenge system shows that Milwaukee is ranked highly in offensive metrics. The Reds need to be below average in defensive errors. Zero errors. That’s key.
Brooke: Zero errors. Simple but hard to do under pressure. Alright, final segment. Bold prediction. Last time, we said the Reds would win 4-3. We were wrong. I’m not going to repeat that mistake. I think the Brewers take this one comfortably. I’ll say Milwaukee wins 8-2. What’s your call, Tony?
Tony: I’m sticking with my original thesis. Milwaukee wins two of three. Since they won the second game, I think they close it out. I’ll predict a 6-3 Brewers victory. The Reds’ bullpen will fatigue, and the Brewers’ depth will show. Elly De La Cruz might have a big game, but it won’t be enough.
Brooke: So, Brewers sweep. It’s a tough end to the regular season for Cincinnati. But hey, they still have young talent. Elly De La Cruz, Andrew Abbott, Ke’Bryan Hayes. The future is bright, even if the present is painful. Thanks for listening, folks. We’ll see you next time.
Tony: Thanks for tuning in to the Beatline Podcast Network. Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen. Support the show via the link in the description if you enjoyed the content. Go Reds!