Brooke: Cooper Pratt just drove in four runs on a bases-loaded triple and a groundout, and the Milwaukee Brewers are sitting pretty at 87-54 while we’re down 10-7 from last night. If you thought yesterday’s 7-3 comeback against San Diego was the high water mark, think again. The Brewers are here to stay, and they look hungry.
Tony: It is a tough pill to swallow, Brooke. We talked about the need for efficiency from Andrew Abbott yesterday, and tonight? It’s a fresh start. But looking at the depth chart with Steer, Ashcraft, and Hayes all on the IL, this feels like a test of resilience rather than raw talent.
Brooke: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Brooke, and joining me as always is Tony, our resident baseball analyst. Today, we are breaking down the second game of this three-game set against the division-leading Brewers. We’ve got three things coming up: first, who is starting on the mound for both sides and what that matchup looks like; second, we’re digging into the depleted Reds lineup and how Elly De La Cruz has to carry the load; and third, I want to revisit my prediction from two days ago and see if Tony will finally admit he was wrong about this series.
Tony: I stand by my analysis, Brooke. You predicted a Reds series win, I predicted Milwaukee took it 2-1. Given the injury report—Toglia, Dunn, Zastryzny, Wilson, Woodruff, Priester, Zerpa—all gone or delayed, the margin for error is nonexistent. Let’s get into the pitching.
Brooke: Alright, let’s talk probables. For the Reds, it’s going to be Andrew Abbott. He’s been our workhorse. Against the Brewers, who are leading the NL Central by twenty games, can he go deep enough into this game? Or does the bullpen have to step in early?
Tony: Abbott has to go deep. There is no other option. With Spencer Steer and Ke'Bryan Hayes out, the lineup lacks power threat outside of Elly De La Cruz. If Abbott gets shelled in the first three innings, Tejay Antone and Tony Santillan are going to be exhausted by the fourth. Milwaukee’s offense, led by Cooper Pratt’s recent hot streak, doesn’t miss many pitches in the zone.
Brooke: Wait, so you’re saying if Abbott doesn’t pitch well, we lose? That seems like a very low bar for a team trying to stay relevant in the playoff hunt.
Tony: It’s not about relevance, it’s about math. Milwaukee is 87-54. They are playing for the top seed. Cincinnati is 67-74. We are playing for pride and maybe a wild card spot if everything breaks right. But the rotation depth is thin. Rhett Lowder and Brady Singer are there, but Abbott is the ace. If he gives up four runs in five innings, the gap widens.
Brooke: Let’s look at the Brewers’ side. Who do you expect them to throw? Their staff is deeper, obviously. Do they rest someone? Or do they go hard because they know we’re hurting?
Tony: They aren’t resting anyone. This is September. They are protecting home field advantage. Expect their best starter available. And given that Pratt had a season-high four RBIs last night, their lineup is clicking. The platoon splits are working in Milwaukee’s favor against left-handed pitching, which might force the Reds to shuffle their infield defense.
Brooke: So, if Abbott doesn’t dominate early, the Reds are in trouble. That’s the headline. Stick with us, because next up, we’re talking about who is actually hitting for Cincinnati, and why the injury bug is still biting hard.
Brooke: Hey, before we dive into the lineup cards, if you found value in today’s breakdown of the Abbott matchup and the injury impacts, please consider supporting the show. Your contributions keep these daily previews free and accessible for every Reds fan out there. Just click the link in the episode description to help us keep the momentum going.
Tony: We appreciate it. It helps us keep bringing you sharp, data-driven analysis without the fluff. Thanks for listening.
Brooke: Okay, let’s talk hitters. Last night, Pratt drove in four runs. Tonight, who is carrying the load for Cincinnati? We know Elly De La Cruz is healthy, but is that enough?
Tony: Elly is the engine. Without him, this lineup is static. But look at JJ Bleday and Hector Rodriguez. They went deep in the win against San Diego on Wednesday. Bleday provides that plate discipline, and Rodriguez brings speed. If they can get on base, Elly can drive them in.
Brooke: But what about the middle of the order? Spencer Steer is out. Sal Stewart is there, but he’s not getting the same volume of at-bats. And Juan Brito, the rookie, hit his first homer last series. Is he reliable enough to anchor the cleanup spot?
Tony: Brito is promising, but he’s inconsistent. The real issue is the lack of power behind Elly. When you have Steer and Hayes on the IL, you lose two of your most dangerous slammers. Milwaukee’s pitching staff knows this. They will pitch around Elly and try to get ahead of the guys behind him.
Brooke: That’s frustrating. So the strategy is basically 'pitch around Elly.' How do you counter that? Do you take the walk? Or do you swing away?
Tony: You have to be selective. If you chase pitches outside the zone, you strike out. Elly’s OBP is key here. If he draws walks, he creates scoring opportunities. But if the rest of the lineup can’t capitalize, those walks don’t matter. It’s about timing and launch angle. We need more fly balls, less ground balls.
Brooke: And what about the bullpen? If Abbott leaves early, who is closing? Tony Santillan is our setup man, but is he ready for the ninth? And what about Pierce Johnson and Brock Burke?
Tony: Santillan is electric, but he’s young. Using him in high-leverage spots is risky if you need him later. The Reds have a lot of arms—Julian Garcia, Emilio Pagan, Sam Moll—but none of them have the established closers' pedigree. This is where Milwaukee’s depth shows. They have options; we have hopes.
Brooke: Hopes and prayers. Alright, let’s move to the final segment. We’ve got the pitching mismatch, the injured lineup, and a Brewers team that is on fire. What are the keys to this series for Cincinnati?
Tony: The key is defense. With Steer and Hayes out, the infield positioning changes. The Brewers are aggressive on the basepaths. If the Reds make errors, it’s over. Clean defense keeps it close. Second, time of possession. Keep the ball in play. Don’t give Milwaukee extra outs through strikeouts.
Brooke: Clean defense and patience. Simple enough in theory. But realistically, can we pull off a win tonight? I’m sticking with my prediction from earlier in the week. I said the Reds would win this series 2-1.
Tony: You are optimistic, Brooke. I predicted Milwaukee takes it 2-1. And I’m doubling down. The injuries are too significant. The Brewers are playing better baseball. Pratt is hot. Abbott is tired. I see Milwaukee winning tonight and tomorrow.
Brooke: I disagree. I think the energy from the Padres series carries over. Elly is due for a big game. And I think the Reds steal one at home. Maybe not the series, but they take Game 1.
Tony: I’ll give you Game 1 if Abbott pitches a gem. But I think Milwaukee adjusts. They will target the weaknesses. My prediction stands: Brewers take the series 2-1.
Brooke: Well, there you have it. Tony sees the Brewers rolling, but I’m holding out hope for a Reds upset. Whether you agree with Tony or me, one thing is certain: the Reds need to play clean baseball and get some hits from their top line.
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Brooke: Thanks for tuning in to the Beatline Podcast Network. Go Reds!