Brooke: Sal Stewart is on fire. Three straight home runs. The kid is tearing it up at the plate while this team tries to claw its way out of a deep hole in the standings. But can he keep it going against Michael King and a San Diego defense that just shut us down 5-0 last night? Stick with us.
Brooke: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, Cincinnati! I’m Brooke, and as always, I’ve got my man Tony in the booth with me. Tony, good evening!
Tony: Hey Brooke. Good to be here. It’s September first, and we are looking at a pivotal series against the Padres. We’ve got a lot to unpack regarding the pitching matchup, the injury report, and whether Sal Stewart’s streak has any legs left.
Brooke: Exactly. So here is what we are tackling today. First, we break down the pitching duel tonight between Andrew Abbott and Michael King. Second, we talk about the bullpen strain and the massive injury list keeping guys like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer out. And third, we give you our keys to the series and a bold prediction for who takes this one.
Tony: Right. It’s a tough spot for the Reds. They sit at 65-73, fifth in the NL Central. The Padres are coming off a win where they held Cincinnati scoreless. Let’s get into the weeds.
Brooke: Let’s start with the mound. Last night, Michael King was dominant. Six innings, six strikeouts, and he kept the Reds’ bats quiet completely. Tonight, Andrew Abbott gets the ball for Cincinnati. How do you see this matchup playing out?
Tony: It’s a classic game of risk versus reward for the Reds. Abbott is trying to find his rhythm in a season that has been full of ups and downs. King, on the other hand, looked sharp. He induced weak contact and kept the ball in the park. If Abbott doesn’t command his fastball early, King will punish mistakes.
Brooke: And let’s not forget, the Reds offense struggled mightily against King’s stuff. They couldn’t generate any quality at-bats. Abbott needs to change the narrative right out of the gate. Do you think Abbott can handle the pressure of being the starter in this spot?
Tony: I think he has to. There’s no time for hesitation. You look at the rotation options, and with Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson both on the 60-day IL, every start matters more than usual. Abbott needs to go deeper into this game. If he goes five innings or less, you’re putting massive stress on a bullpen that is already depleted.
Brooke: That is the key. Depth. Or lack thereof. If Abbott can’t go seven, Tejay Antone and Tony Santillan are going to have to work back-to-back nights. That’s a recipe for fatigue. Can the Reds afford to burn through their best relievers this early in a potential playoff push, even if it’s slim?
Tony: They have to. This is baseball. You manage the games you have, not the ones you want. If Abbott gives them a chance to win, you use your high-leverage arms. But if Abbott struggles, you might have to turn to Brock Burke or Pierce Johnson sooner than you’d like. It’s a gamble either way.
Brooke: So, we’re looking at a tight game. A pitcher’s duel potentially. But wait, did you hear about the umpire situation from last night? Manny Gonzalez left with heat exhaustion. Does that add any weird variable to tonight’s game?
Tony: Oh, absolutely. That’s a wild detail. Heat exhaustion is serious. It means the new plate umpire is going to come in fresh, but also potentially unsettled. Umpires call balls and strikes based on feel and routine. A replacement might have different thresholds. For a team like Cincinnati that relies on patience and working counts, that could be a factor.
Brooke: Interesting point. So, plate discipline becomes even more critical. If the new umpire has a tighter zone, the Reds hitters need to be disciplined. If he’s loose, they can be aggressive. Either way, it’s an unknown. Let’s shift gears to the lineup. Who do you trust to lead the charge tonight?
Tony: You have to look at Sal Stewart. Rookie of the year conversation? Maybe not yet, but he’s certainly making a case. Three straight home runs. That is insane production. He’s finding the barrel consistently. Against a guy like King, Stewart needs to stay aggressive on the pitches he can drive.
Brooke: Three in a row, Tony! That is huge momentum. But let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Elly De La Cruz is still out. Spencer Steer is on the 10-day IL. Ke'Bryan Hayes too. The offensive firepower is severely diminished. How does the lineup look without them?
Tony: It looks thin. Without De La Cruz’s speed and power threat, defenses play much closer to the infield. That opens up gaps for guys like TJ Friedl and Matt McLain. But you lose that dynamic element. You lose the ability to steal bases and put pressure on the defense with extra-base hits. It makes the offense one-dimensional.
Brooke: One-dimensional is dangerous against Michael King. King thrives when he knows exactly what’s coming. If the Reds can’t threaten with speed, they have to hit it hard. Which brings us back to Sal Stewart. Is he carrying this entire offense right now?
Tony: He’s carrying a lot of weight. But you can’t rely on one guy forever. Who else steps up? Tyler Stephenson has been solid behind the plate. If he can get some RBI opportunities, he needs to convert. And Edwin Arroyo at second base—he’s a small sample size, but he provides some pop. The middle of the order needs to contribute.
Brooke: What about the bullpen? We mentioned Antone and Santillan, but there are a lot of names on that list. Julian Garcia, Luis Mey, Sam Moll. With Jason Adam on the 60-day IL, the relief corps is stretched. How worried should we be about late-inning collapses?
Tony: Very worried. When you’re missing your setup man like Adam, you lose stability. You end up using your starter as a reliever, which we talked about, or you bring in guys who aren’t quite ready for high-leverage spots. If the game goes to the eighth inning tied or close, I’m nervous about who is on the mound. Emilio Pagan? Brock Burke? It’s a coin flip.
Brooke: Coin flip. That’s not reassuring for fans hoping for a win. But hey, on the bright side, Sal Stewart is hot. And maybe the new umpire calls a few favorable strikes for our guys. Let’s move to our final segment. What are the keys to the series? How do the Reds actually win these next few games?
Tony: Key number one: Pitching depth. If Andrew Abbott can pitch effectively for at least six innings, you give the bullpen a chance to rest. Key number two: Speed. Even with De La Cruz out, you need Dane Myers or Hector Rodriguez to use the field. Take away the easy outs. Force the Padres defense to make perfect plays.
Brooke: I love that. Speed and patience. Working those counts. And key number three? Sal Stewart keeps hitting. If he stays in that groove, he forces the opposing manager to respect the left side of the lineup. That opens things up for Eugenio Suarez and JJ Bleday.
Tony: Exactly. Suarez is a veteran presence. If he sees good fastballs, he can do damage. But ultimately, it comes down to execution. The Reds are underdogs. They’re fighting for pride in a lost season, mostly. But every game is a chance to build for 2027.
Brooke: So, let’s get to the bold prediction. Last time, we had mixed results. I predicted a narrow Reds win, Tony said Padres. The Padres won 5-0. So, we’re due for a correction, right? Tony, you’re up first. Who wins tonight?
Tony: Alright, I’m sticking with my guns but adjusting the score. The Padres are just too well-coached. Michael King is in top form. I think San Diego wins again, but it’s closer. I’ll say 3-1 Padres. The Reds struggle to string hits together against King’s secondary stuff.
Brooke: Ouch. 3-1. Okay, I’m going to disagree. I think Sal Stewart breaks his streak but still drives in a run. And I think Andrew Abbott outduels King. I’m predicting a Reds victory, 4-3. The momentum from Stewart’s hot streak finally translates into a win. Plus, the heat might affect the Padres' defense more than we think.
Tony: We’ll see about that heat factor. It’s going to be a tough night for Cincinnati, but anything can happen in baseball.
Brooke: There you have it, Reds Nation. Two predictions, two different outcomes. Whether you’re with Tony or with me, one thing is certain: Sal Stewart is the hottest rookie in baseball right now.
Tony: Make sure you tune in tomorrow for the recap. We’ll break down every pitch and every play.
Brooke: Don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review the Beatline Podcast Network wherever you listen. Share this episode with a friend who loves the Reds. Until then, keep cheering loud. Go Reds!