Stephanie: Two home runs. Three RBIs. Three runs scored. And a new franchise record for left-handed hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong didn’t just beat the Braves last night; he announced himself to the entire baseball world.
Sean: It was historic, Stephanie. Forty-three and forty-four on the year. But here is the reality check we have to talk about today: the Chicago Cubs are 85-68, sitting second in the NL Central, but they are heading into Cincinnati with a bullpen that looks like Swiss cheese.
Stephanie: That is exactly what we are breaking down. Welcome to Beatline Podcast Network, I’m Stephanie, and this is your daily Cubs preview. Joining me as always is Sean. Sean, you predicted a sweep of Atlanta, and while we got two of three, the cost was high.
Sean: We got the wins, which is all that matters for the standings, but let’s look at the injury report coming out of Wrigley. We are talking about Dansby Swanson on the 10-day IL, Gavin Hollowell on the 15-day IL, and then a massive chunk of the relief corps—Justin Steele, Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Robert Suarez, Joe Jimenez—all on the 60-day IL. Plus Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder on the 15-day. That is not a minor inconvenience; that is a structural crisis for Craig Counsell.
Stephanie: So tonight, we take the road slide to Cincinnati to face the Reds, who are 71-82 and fifth in the division. Here is what we have for you: First, we break down the pitching matchup and who might take the mound. Second, we analyze if Pete Crow-Armstrong’s hot streak can carry this team despite the bullpen injuries. And third, we give you our keys to winning this series against a desperate Reds squad. Let’s get into it.
Stephanie: Let’s start with the most critical variable: the rotation. The Cubs are traveling to Great American Ball Park, a hitter-friendly venue that punishes mistakes. With Justin Steele out for the season and the rest of the depth thin, how are we looking at the probable starters for this series?
Sean: Well, Shota Imanaga had a fantastic outing last night, allowing only one run over six innings. He’s going to need some rest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs turn to someone else for Game One. Looking at the roster, you’ve got Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Aaron Civale, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, and Colin Rea available. It’s a crowded staff, but the quality variance is steep.
Stephanie: Clay Holmes? As a starting pitcher? That sounds like a desperation move or a long reliever spot start.
Sean: Exactly. In modern MLB usage, when you’re missing five or six pitchers from your traditional bullpen structure, managers start playing with the definitions. If the rotation is gutted by injury, you might see a former closer work five innings to save the actual closers for the ninth. But realistically, I expect Colin Rea or maybe even Aaron Civale to get the nod. They have experience, and they know how to pitch in the National League.
Stephanie: And on the other side, the Reds are fighting for their lives. They’re 71-82, but they’re still mathematically alive in certain wildcard scenarios, or at least trying to secure draft position. How does their pitching match up against a Cubs lineup that just scored eight runs on Wednesday?
Sean: The Reds are vulnerable. When you’re 71-82, you’re often carrying weaker arms deep in the rotation because you’re tanking or just managing losses. The key for Chicago is pace of play and attacking early counts. If Imanaga or whoever starts gets ahead of the hitters, the Cubs’ offense—which has been clicking with Bregman and Crow-Armstrong heating up—can exploit the Reds' defensive positioning.
Stephanie: Right. And remember, Lane Thomas is on the 10-day IL for Atlanta, but we don’t have specific Reds injury news other than the general context of their struggles. So it’s purely talent versus desperation. Sean, do you trust the current Cubs rotation arm to go deep enough into this game?
Sean: I’m skeptical. With the bullpen depleted, the starter has to eat innings. If they don’t, the manager is forced to use multiple relievers in the middle innings, which leads to mismatches later. The Cubs need a starter who can throw 100 pitches minimum tonight. Otherwise, we’re looking at a bullpen game, and those are coin flips in September.
Stephanie: So we’re looking for durability from the starter to protect a fragile relief corps. Let’s pivot to the biggest story in baseball right now: Pete Crow-Armstrong. Last night, he went 3-for-4 with two homers. He’s broken the Cubs’ record for left-handers. Is this sustainable, or is he due for a cold spell?
Sean: Sustainable? Yes. His plate discipline is elite. He’s not chasing sliders in the dirt. He’s driving the ball to all fields. When you combine that contact quality with his speed in the outfield, he’s a nightmare for defenses. Even if he doesn’t hit a homer every night, his OBP and ability to create chaos on the bases keep pressure on opposing pitchers.
Stephanie: And Alex Bregman was right there with him last night. The headline said 'PCA, Bregman go off.' Bregman brings that veteran stability. How important is it that these two are hitting back-to-back or close together in the order?
Sean: Crucial. Bregman knows how to manipulate the strike zone. If he’s batting near PCA, he forces the pitcher to respect the inside part of the plate, which opens up the outer edge for Pete. It’s a platoon advantage within the same lineup. The Reds will have to be perfect to get through that sequence without giving up runs.
Stephanie: Perfect. So, durable starter, hot bats. Sounds like a recipe for success. But we haven’t talked about the elephant in the room: the injuries. We listed them earlier, but let’s drill down. What does this mean for Craig Counsell’s strategy tonight?
Sean: It means he has to be creative. With Suarez, Jimenez, Harvey, Maton, and Steele gone, you don’t have your usual late-inning anchors. He might have to lean on Javier Assad, Daniel Palencia, Ryan Rolison, Caleb Thielbar, Jacob Webb, and Ryan Zeferjahn. These are guys who have been filling in, but none of them are proven closers. If the game goes to seven innings, Counsell is gambling.
Stephanie: Gambling. That’s a scary word in September. Okay, let’s take a quick break. Stick with us—we’re diving into the specific matchups and whether the Cubs can actually win two of three in Cincinnati despite these odds.
Stephanie: Welcome back. We were just discussing the severe impact of the bullpen injuries on Craig Counsell’s strategic options. Sean, you mentioned names like Javier Assad and Daniel Palencia. Are any of these relievers capable of shutting down a Reds lineup that’s trying to rally?
Sean: Assad has velocity. If he’s healthy, he can miss bats. Palencia has control. But neither is a traditional setup man. The risk is that the Reds, being 71-82, have nothing to lose. They’ll swing for the fences. If the Cubs lead by two in the eighth, and you put Palencia in there, one mistake could blow the game open.
Stephanie: That’s why the starter needs to go deep. If the game is tied 2-2 in the seventh, and you have to pull your starter, you’re handing the ball to a guy who hasn’t necessarily saved the day in high-leverage spots before. It’s a confidence game.
Sean: Exactly. And look at the roster construction. You’ve got Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly behind the plate. Amaya is good defensively, which helps with pitch framing, but if the bullpen is wild, good defense won’t save you from balls in the gaps. The Reds have power. They can hit those gaps.
Stephanie: So, we need big hits from the top of the order. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have been solid all year. Do they need to step up specifically against the Reds’ weaker pitching?
Sean: Happ is a masher. He’s got the launch angle data to kill fly balls. Suzuki is consistent. If the Cubs can get early runs, they can force the Reds to chase. Offense is the best defense, especially when your defense is compromised by having to rely on bench players or emergency call-ups.
Stephanie: Wait, hold on. I want to pause the analysis for a second. I want to talk to you, our listeners. If these daily breakdowns are part of your morning routine or your commute, a small tip is what keeps them coming. Your support allows us to keep digging into the stats and bringing you this free content every single day. Please consider chipping in via the link in the episode description. Thank you for keeping the show free and running.
Sean: Thanks for listening. Now, back to the baseball. Michael Conforto is also in the lineup. He’s a DH option. How does his presence help against a Reds team that might be struggling with consistency?
Stephanie: Conforto provides power from the middle of the order. If the Reds are tired, he can drive them in. But honestly, Sean, I think the narrative here is Pete Crow-Armstrong. He’s making the case for MVP. Do you think he’s going to finish in the top three for the award?
Sean: He absolutely is. Look at the metrics. He’s contributing on both sides of the ball. His defense in center field is gold-medal caliber, and now his bat is producing at an All-Star level. Most MVP candidates are one-dimensional. PCA is doing it all. For a Cubs player, this is huge for the franchise's future.
Stephanie: It really is. And Nico Hoerner at second base has been steady too. Gabriel Arias and Michael Busch provide depth. The lineup is deep enough to wear down the Reds’ pitching staff. But again, that brings us back to the bullpen. If the Cubs take a lead, can they hold it?
Sean: That’s the million-dollar question. I don’t think they can reliably hold a slim lead. They need a multi-run cushion. If it’s 8-4, like last night, they’re fine. If it’s 3-2 in the ninth, they’re sweating bullets. That’s why the early scoring is so vital.
Stephanie: Okay, so we need big innings early. We need PCA to keep this heat up. And we need the starter to eat innings. Let’s wrap up with our keys to the series and our prediction.
Stephanie: Here are our keys to the series: First, execute on the basepaths. Use the speed. Second, attack the Reds’ starters early. Don’t let them settle in. Third, manage the bullpen carefully—save your best arms for the highest leverage spots, even if it means burning them out faster.
Sean: I agree. And my bold prediction? The Cubs will win two of three games in Cincinnati. They’ll likely win the first game decisively, 5-3, thanks to PCA and Bregman. Then they’ll grind out a 4-2 win in the finale. The Reds are desperate, but the Cubs’ offensive firepower is just too much to overcome when the bats are clicking like this.
Stephanie: I’m with you on the two-out-of-three, Sean. The momentum from Atlanta carries over. Pete Crow-Armstrong is on another level. This is his time to shine, and the Cubs will capitalize. Any final thoughts on the injuries before we sign off?
Sean: Just stay tuned for updates on Dansby Swanson. If he returns soon, it boosts the infield defense significantly. Until then, Counsell has to make do with what he has. It’s tough, but that’s baseball in September.
Stephanie: That’s it for today’s preview. The Cubs take on the Reds tonight. Let’s hope the bats keep firing and the bullpen holds together. Thanks for listening to Beatline Podcast Network. Make sure to subscribe, rate, and review wherever you get your podcasts. Go Cubs!