Danielle: The Atlanta Braves are sitting pretty at the top of the NL East with an 88-62 record, but can they hold off a hungry Chicago Cubs squad when half their rotation is on the shelf? We’ve got the full breakdown coming up.
Danielle: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, I’m Danielle. Joining me as always is our lead analyst Eric. Eric, we just watched the Phillies take Game Three of the series, 9-4, after a brutal eighth inning. How does that feel going into tomorrow’s trip to Chicago?
Eric: It stings, Danielle. Losing 9-4 in the finale of a three-game set hurts, especially when you’re trying to build momentum for a playoff push. But honestly? The bigger story isn’t the loss; it’s who is left to pitch for these guys against the Cubs.
Danielle: Right, and before we get into the weeds, I want to give a quick shout-out to our listeners. This show is completely free, no ads, no paywall—just pure baseball analysis. That freedom only exists because of you. If you love what we do, please check out the link in the episode description to support us directly. It keeps the lights on and the coffee flowing. Now, let’s talk about this Cubs series. Ava, lay it out for us.
Danielle: Coming up: First, we’ll break down the pitching matchup angles against the Cubs’ lineup. Second, we’ll dive into the injury report—who’s out, who’s day-to-day, and how that impacts the bullpen. And third, we’ll look at the key hitters like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson who need to step up. Let’s start with the mound.
Danielle: So, Eric, the Braves are traveling to Chicago tonight for a three-game series. They’re 88-62, first in the NL East. The Cubs are 83-67, second in the Central. It’s a tight race. Who is starting for Atlanta in Game One?
Eric: Well, this is where it gets interesting. You have to remember, Spencer Strider, Tyler Mahle, Bryce Elder, Tanner Banks, Jesus Luzardo, and Felix Reyes are all either on the 60-Day IL or dealing with injuries. The rotation is decimated. For Game One, it looks like Grant Holmes might be the guy on the mound, or possibly AJ Smith-Shawver if they want to give him some late-season innings.
Danielle: Grant Holmes? That’s a huge leap from yesterday when we were talking about Chris Sale getting the ball. Where is Sale in all of this?
Eric: Chris Sale is still recovering. He hasn’t been activated yet. So, yes, Holmes is likely the starter. And honestly, facing the Cubs’ lineup with a pitcher who might not be at 100% velocity is risky. The Cubs have power. They hit the ball hard. You can’t afford to give them early counts.
Danielle: And what about the other games? Do we know who’s lined up for Game Two and Three?
Eric: Martin Perez could take the ball for Game Two. He’s been reliable when healthy. For Game Three, it might fall to Dylan Dodd or even Bailey Falter. It’s a thin mix. The manager is going to have to manage his arms carefully. You don’t want to burn through your best pitchers in a three-game series when you’re already missing so many starters.
Danielle: It’s definitely a test of depth. The Cubs aren’t pushing back; they’re fighting for every game. How does this compare to the Phillies series we just played? We predicted the Braves would win two out of three there, and they did, thanks largely to the offense.
Eric: Exactly. In the Phillies series, the offense carried them. Ronald Acuña Jr. homered in that 12-2 rout. Matt Olson had multi-hit games. But against the Cubs, if the pitching isn’t sharp, the margin for error shrinks. The Cubs play aggressive baseball. They steal bases. They put pressure on the defense. If Holmes or Perez walks a guy, it’s a big deal.
Danielle: So, the key is keeping the count low. Avoiding walks. Keeping the pitch count manageable so the bullpen isn’t overworked. That’s the strategy for these next few days.
Eric: Precisely. And if they go deep into the game, it puts stress on Raisel Iglesias and the rest of the relievers. We’ll see how the manager balances that.
Danielle: Stick with us, because next we’re diving into the injury list and the bullpen questions. Who’s available? Who’s hurt? And how does that change the game plan? Don’t go anywhere.
Danielle: We’re back. Let’s talk injuries. The list is long, Eric. We mentioned Strider, Mahle, Elder, Banks, Luzardo, Reyes. What else is on the roster right now?
Eric: It’s a graveyard out there. Robert Suarez is on the 60-Day IL. Joe Jimenez is also 60-Day IL. Caleb Kilian is on the 15-Day IL. Lane Thomas is on the 10-Day IL. And Johan Rojas? He’s on the 60-Day IL too. It’s massive.
Danielle: That’s a lot of names. Is anyone actually playing? Or is everyone healthy except those on the IL?
Eric: Jesus Luzardo is listed as Day-To-Day, so he might be available soon, but for now, he’s not in the lineup. Everyone else on the active roster is ready to go. But the absence of those relievers changes everything. Suarez was a closer. Jimenez was a setup man. Their absence means more work for Raisel Iglesias.
Danielle: Raisel Iglesias is the anchor. He’s the primary closer. How much workload can he handle in a short series like this?
Eric: You hope he doesn’t have to throw more than two innings a night. But if the starters struggle, he might. Look at the last game against Philly. They blew a lead in the eighth. That’s when the bullpen has to come in hot. If Iglesias is tired, it’s trouble.
Danielle: Who are the other options? We saw Dylan Lee, Reynaldo Lopez, Victor Mederos, Ray Kerr, Brent Suter, Didier Fuentes. Are they trusted?
Eric: They’re capable. Dylan Lee has good stuff. Reynaldo Lopez can miss bats. But none of them have the same closing experience as Suarez. It’s a different vibe. The manager has to be creative. Maybe use a opener strategy? Put a reliever in for the first inning to face the heart of the order, then bring in the starter.
Danielle: An opener! That’s a bold move. Do you think the Cubs will expect that? They’re smart. They study film.
Eric: They probably do. But if it works, it disrupts their rhythm. If you send out a lesser-known arm like Dylan Dodd or Bailey Falter to face the top four hitters, and they get outs quickly, then you can bring in your starter fresh in the second inning. It’s a gamble, but with this roster, it might be necessary.
Danielle: So, the strategy shifts from dominance to disruption. Keep the early innings clean, preserve the bullpen, and hope the offense scores enough to survive a tight game.
Eric: Exactly. And if the offense doesn’t score, the bullpen has to carry the load. Which brings us to the hitters.
Danielle: Let’s talk offense. Acuña, Olson, Riley. They were great against Philly. Can they keep it up against Chicago?
Eric: They have to. Acuña is electric. He stole bases, he hit home runs. He’s the engine. Olson and Riley provide the power. If they can string together hits, they can beat any team. But the Cubs have a strong pitching staff too. They won’t make it easy.
Danielle: What about the bottom of the order? Ha-Seong Kim, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Drake Baldwin. Do they contribute?
Eric: Albies is crucial. He gets on base, he moves runners. Kim is solid defensively and can hit for average. Murphy and Baldwin are catching the starters. They need to produce behind the plate. If the middle order goes quiet, the game gets tough.
Danielle: So, it’s a team effort. No one can carry this alone. Especially with the pitching uncertainty. Every run matters.
Eric: Every single run. This is why depth matters. When you’re missing players, you need everyone to step up.
Danielle: Before we wrap this segment, let’s address the elephant in the room. The ABS challenge system tracker. How is Atlanta doing in that area?
Eric: It’s a minor detail, but it adds up. Catchers like Murphy and Baldwin need to frame well. Umpires make calls. If the Braves are challenging pitches, they need to be accurate. It’s about marginal gains. In a tight division, those small things matter.
Danielle: Absolutely. Marginal gains add up to wins. Alright, let’s move to Segment Three. Keys to the series and a bold prediction. What’s the number one key for Atlanta to win this series in Chicago?
Eric: Controlled aggression. Play smart baseball. Don’t chase strikes. Be patient at the plate. And on the mound, execute pitches in counting situations. If you walk batters, you lose. Simple as that.
Danielle: Controlled aggression. I like that. It’s not about swinging for the fences every time. It’s about making the other team earn it. What’s your bold prediction for this series?
Eric: I’m going to say the Braves split the series. Two wins, one loss. Or maybe even sweep it if the pitching clicks. But given the injuries, I’ll stick with a split. They’ll win two, lose one. And Ronald Acuña Jr. will have at least three extra-base hits across the three games.
Danielle: A split and Acuña dominating. Bold, but possible. What about Matt Olson? Will he continue his multi-hit streak?
Eric: He should. He’s been consistent. Against the Phillies, he had multi-hit games. Against the Cubs, he should do the same. He knows how to hit pitching.
Danielle: Alright, Eric, I’ll take that bet. A split, Acuña with extra-base hits, Olson with multi-hit games. Let’s see if we’re right. Thanks for listening, everyone. If you enjoyed this preview, please subscribe, rate, and review us on your favorite podcast app. Share it with a friend who loves the Braves. Until next time, Go Braves!