Nicole: Nolan Arenado just blasted his third grand slam of the season, Pavin Smith hit a walk-off homer to keep playoff hopes alive, and now we’re staring down the barrel of a must-win series in Denver. The D-backs are 82-74, sitting third in the NL West, and they need every single run they can get.
Kevin: It’s a wild ride, Nicole. We talked about this injury crisis yesterday, but the reality is starker today. With so many arms on the IL, the margin for error in Colorado is practically non-existent. One bad inning ends the dream.
Nicole: Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Nicole, and this is your daily home for Arizona Diamondbacks coverage. Joining me as always is our lead analyst, Kevin. Kevin, what a finish to that Yankees series.
Kevin: It was electric. Arenado provided the power, but the pitching held firm against a high-octane New York lineup. Now, we pivot immediately to the Rockies. It’s tomorrow night, September 23rd, at Coors Field. Three games to decide if Arizona stays in the hunt.
Nicole: Here is what we are diving into tonight. First, we break down the pitching matchups for the opener and how the rotation handles the altitude. Second, we look at the offensive keys—specifically Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte—and the heavy injury list weighing on the club. And finally, we give you our bold prediction for this three-game set. Let’s get to work.
Nicole: So, Kevin, let’s talk rotation. We know the bullpen is stretched thin with Tyler Locklear, Ryan Thompson, A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, and Cristian Mena all on the 60-day IL. That leaves us with a very specific group of starters heading to Colorado.
Kevin: Right. You have to look at who is actually available. Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, and Eduardo Rodriguez are the main options. Michael Soroka is there too, but he’s more of a long-man or spot start option given the workload. The key here is managing innings because you can’t lean on the relief crew like usual.
Nicole: And Coors Field changes everything. Even a dominant starter can give up five runs in two innings if they don’t adjust their pitch selection. Did you see the ABS challenge system tracker? The umpire crews in the National League West have been tight on the zone lately, which helps pitchers who command the edges.
Kevin: That’s a good point. If the ABS system is favoring the strike zone call, then hitters have to be more selective. For Arizona, this means their starters can’t afford to chase early counts. If Burnes or Gallen go, they need to establish the fastball early and use the changeup to keep the Rockies’ power hitters off balance. You can’t hang curveballs over the plate in Denver.
Nicole: Exactly. And remember, we predicted yesterday that Arizona would win the rubber match against the Yankees, and they did. But winning that game meant burning some of that limited stamina. How do you manage the rest days when you only have five real starters?
Kevin: You rotate aggressively. You might see Ryne Nelson take a turn even if he’s not fully recovered, or you push Michael Soroka into a longer outing to save the big arms for Game 3. It’s risky, but with the Yankees series done, the focus shifts entirely to splitting these Rockies games. If you lose both sides, you’re out of the wild card race.
Nicole: So, the strategy is survival first, offense second. Get the starter through six innings, limit the damage, and hope the bats wake up later. That’s the plan. Let’s take a quick breath before we dive into the injuries and the lineup.
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Nicole: Okay, let’s talk injuries. This list is brutal. We have Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Fernando Cruz on the 15-day IL. Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham are also out, but they’re Yankees. For us, the absence of Chisholm hurts defensively, but Cruz being out means less depth in the infield.
Kevin: It’s not just the players out, it’s the guys returning. Giancarlo Stanton is on the 60-day IL for the Yankees, which weakens their lineup significantly. But for Arizona, the concern is the bullpen depth. Taylor Clarke, Zac Gallen (wait, no, Gallen is SP), Kevin Ginkel, Brandon Pfaadt, Dennis Santana... that’s a lot of relievers, but are they healthy?
Nicole: Jonathan Loaisiga and Justin Martinez are on the roster too, right? Wait, Loaisiga is listed as RP. If the starters struggle in the thin air, those arms are going to get hammered. The question is, who starts the first game?
Kevin: I’d bet on Corbin Burnes. He has the stuff to miss bats even at Coors. If you go with someone like Soroka or Nelson, you risk blowing the game early. Burnes can go seven innings, which gives the manager breathing room. But if he struggles, the next man up needs to step up immediately.
Nicole: Let’s shift to the offense. Pavin Smith hit that walk-off homer against the Yankees. He was waived two months ago and came back to save the season. Is he locked in as the everyday first baseman against the Rockies?
Kevin: He should be. Tim Tawa and Ildemaro Vargas are backups, but Smith has the momentum. His platoon splits are decent, and against left-handed pitching, he’s a threat. You want that energy in the lineup. Alongside him, Nolan Arenado is hitting the ball hard. That grand slam wasn’t a fluke; it’s his natural power.
Nicole: And we can’t forget Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Like we said in previous episodes, these two drive the offense. Carroll gets on base, creates chaos, and Marte provides the middle-of-the-order stability. If they aren’t productive, the runs don’t score.
Kevin: Agreed. Carroll’s speed is a huge factor in Denver. Baserunning mistakes happen more often due to the wind patterns, but if he’s aggressive, he can turn singles into doubles. Marte needs to exploit any platoon mismatches. The Rockies’ bullpen isn’t exactly elite, so Marte’s OBP is critical.
Nicole: What about the outfield? Jesus Sanchez and Jordan Lawlar are there. Lawlar has been a bright spot in the minors, but is he ready for the majors in a pressure-cooker situation?
Kevin: Lawlar is talented, but I wouldn’t start him unless there’s an injury. Ryan Waldschmidt might see more time if they need a left-handed bat. The defense needs to be solid because one error in Coors can be costly. Positioning will be key against the Rockies’ pull-heavy hitters.
Nicole: So, the mantra is: protect the lead, exploit mismatches, and trust the veterans. Let’s move to our final segment where we look at the keys to the series and make our prediction.
Nicole: Keys to the series, Kevin. What does Arizona need to do to split these three games and stay alive?
Kevin: Control the strike zone. Don’t swing at pitches outside, especially with the ABS challenges working against you if you waste them. And execute the bunt or the sacrifice fly when needed. Small ball matters in tight games.
Nicole: I agree. Pitching efficiency is number one. If Burnes goes eight innings, that’s a W. If he goes four, we’re in trouble. Also, the bench needs to contribute. Lars Nootbaar and Jose Fernandez are DH options. Who do you prefer?
Kevin: Nootbaar for his on-base skills. Fernandez for his power. If the game is close, I want Nootbaar to get on base and score. If it’s a blowout, Fernandez to clean up. But realistically, you want Arenado and Smith driving in runs.
Nicole: Bold prediction time. We predicted a split last week against the Yankees, and we got that right. What are we saying for Colorado?
Kevin: I’m sticking with the split. Two wins, one loss. The D-backs have the edge in starting pitching depth compared to the Rockies, and the bullpen, while thin, has experienced arms like Ginkel who can shut down the late innings.
Nicole: I’ll add a twist. I think Corbin Carroll hits a home run in this series. He’s due. And I predict the Diamondbacks win the series finale to secure their wild card spot.
Kevin: If Carroll hits a homer, we win the series. It’s that simple. The momentum from the Yankees game carries over. Let’s go D-backs.
Nicole: That’s it for tonight! We’ve broken down the pitching probables, the injury crisis, and our predictions for the Rockies series. The Diamondbacks need to execute, and they have the talent to do it.
Kevin: Stay tuned for the live updates tomorrow night. Make sure you have your ABS challenge alerts ready.
Nicole: If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe, rate, and review us on your favorite podcast app. Share it with a friend who loves the D-backs.
Kevin: Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network. Keep the faith.
Nicole: Up the D's!