Nicole: Pavin Smith, the guy they waived two months ago, just saved their season with a walk-off home run against the Yankees. But don't get too comfortable. The playoff window is still open, but it’s narrowing fast, and now they have to turn around and face the Rockies in Colorado.
Kevin: It was a massive moment for Arizona, but as we’ve been saying all week, the injury list is terrifying. You’re looking at nine players on IL, including half your rotation and key bullpen arms. They can’t coast on one big night.
Nicole: Welcome back to the Beatline Podcast Network! I’m Nicole, and this is the daily Diamondbacks show where we break down every pitch, every play, and every path to October.
Kevin: And I’m Kevin. We are live from the aftermath of that incredible 8-4 victory over New York on Sunday. If you missed it, Nolan Arenado hit his third grand slam of the year, but the real story is how they dig into this series against the Rockies starting Wednesday.
Nicole: Here is what we are tackling today. First, we’ll look at the pitching probables and why Corbin Burnes might be the only option left standing. Second, we’ll dive into the offensive lineup—specifically Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll—and whether they can carry the load against a weak Rockies defense. And finally, we’ll talk about the ABS challenge system tracker and give you our bold prediction for the series outcome.
Kevin: That’s right. The D-backs are sitting at 82-74, third in the NL West. They aren’t leading the division, but they are firmly in the wild card hunt. Every game matters now.
Nicole: Let’s start with the elephant in the room: the pitching staff. After yesterday’s win, I thought we might see some rest, but with Tyler Locklear, Ryan Thompson, A.J. Puk, Andrew Saalfrank, and Cristian Mena all on the 60-Day IL, who is actually available?
Kevin: It’s a skeleton crew, Nicole. You’re looking at Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Michael Soroka as the primary starters. That’s it. And if you need relief, Taylor Clarke, Kevin Ginkel, and Brandon Pfaadt are the main guys left.
Nicole: Wait, so Brandyn Garcia and Dennis Santana are also out? Or are they buried deeper in the minors or injured reserve too?
Kevin: Based on the roster snapshot, they are not listed as active for the next game. So yes, the depth chart is severely compromised. This means Burnes has to go deep. If he goes six innings, that’s a miracle in this environment.
Nicole: Six innings against the Rockies? That feels ambitious. The Rockies’ offense isn’t exactly elite, but getting six clean innings in Coors Field is tough for any pitcher. Do you think Burnes starts Wednesday?
Kevin: I do. It’s hard to imagine them saving him. With the gap between games being short, they need to maximize Burnes’ workload while he’s healthy. If they skip him, they risk using someone like Soroka or Nelson on short rest, which is risky given the fatigue factor.
Nicole: But what if Burnes struggles early? Who is the next best arm? Is it Gallen or Kelly?
Kevin: Gallen has been inconsistent lately, and Kelly’s velocity has dipped slightly this month. Honestly, if Burnes gets pulled in the fourth, you’re likely calling on Jonathan Loaisiga or Justin Martinez out of the bullpen, even if they aren’t traditional relievers anymore.
Nicole: That sounds like a recipe for disaster if the starter doesn’t hold up. Let’s hope Arenado keeps hitting those bombs to keep the score low enough for whoever takes the ball in the fifth.
Kevin: Exactly. The margin for error is zero. One bad inning and the game is gone. Stick with us after this quick break—we’re going to talk about the bats that need to step up.
Nicole: Before we get into Segment 2, I want to take a quick second. If you enjoyed this breakdown of the D-backs’ gritty playoff push, please consider supporting the show. Your contributions help keep these daily episodes free for everyone. Just check out the link in the episode description.
Nicole: Welcome back. Let’s talk offense. Yesterday, Pavin Smith delivered the walk-off homer. He was waived just two months ago! How does that fit into the current lineup strategy against Colorado?
Kevin: It’s a testament to the organizational depth, even with injuries. Pavin provides power off the bench or at first base. But the core has to be Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll. We predicted earlier that Carroll would hit a homer against the Yankees, and he did. Can he do it again?
Nicole: He definitely can. His plate discipline is elite. Against the Rockies, who tend to struggle with command, Carroll should feast. What about Gabriel Moreno behind the plate? Is he starting?
Kevin: Yes, Moreno is the catcher of choice. James McCann is there, but Moreno’s bat is more dangerous. The issue is the infield. With Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Fernando Cruz on IL, Geraldo Perdomo is playing shortstop, and Ketel Marte is handling second. It’s a defensive shift, but it works offensively.
Nicole: So no Chisholm? That’s a huge loss for speed and versatility.
Kevin: Huge. Chisholm is on the 10-Day IL. Trent Grisham is also out. Aaron Judge is out too, which helped the D-backs yesterday, but Judge won’t be there for the Rockies series. Wait, no, Judge is on the Yankees IL. For Arizona, losing Chisholm and Grisham means less speed on the bases.
Nicole: Right, my mistake. For Arizona, it’s Chisholm and Cruz. So Perdomo and Marte are the middle infield. Jordan Lawlar is in center field. Does Lawlar have the power to impact the game?
Kevin: Lawlar is young, but he has pop. He’s not going to hit .350, but he can change a game with one swing. Pair that with Lars Nootbaar and Jesus Sanchez in the outfield, and you have a lineup that can be explosive if the pitching holds up.
Nicole: Explosive, yes. Consistent? That’s the question. The Rockies’ pitching is shaky, which helps Arizona, but if the D-backs’ bullpen collapses, it doesn’t matter how many runs they score.
Kevin: Agreed. The bullpen is the wildcard. With Taylor Clarke and Kevin Ginkel, they have some reliable arms, but if they burn them out early, they’re in trouble by Game 3.
Nicole: Let’s move to our final segment. We’ve got the ABS challenge system tracker, and we need to make a prediction. What’s the key to this series for Arizona?
Nicole: The ABS challenge system is tracking team rankings for batters and catchers. Where do the D-backs stand? Are they improving their metrics?
Kevin: They’re moving up in the batter rankings because of the recent surge. Pavin Smith’s heroics and Arenado’s slugging have boosted their OPS. But defensively, they’re slipping due to injuries. Catchers like Moreno are doing great work, but the infield positioning is compromised.
Nicole: So the key is to leverage the offensive surge before the defense becomes too much of a liability. Kevin, what’s your bold prediction for the Rockies series?
Kevin: I’m predicting a split. Two wins for Arizona, one for Colorado. Burnes will shut them down in one, the bullpen will hold strong in another, but Coors Field will give up a game in the middle.
Nicole: I agree with the split, but I think they sweep. The Rockies are too weak, and if Carroll hits another homer, it’s over.
Kevin: I’ll stick with the split. It’s safer. But either way, Arizona stays alive in the wild card race. That’s what matters.
Nicole: There you have it. A split or a sweep, the D-backs are keeping their playoff dreams alive. Thanks for listening to the Beatline Podcast Network!
Kevin: If you haven’t already, please subscribe, rate, and review us on your favorite platform. It helps more fans find the show.
Nicole: And remember, if you want to support our work and keep these daily updates coming, check out the link in the episode description. Your support makes this possible.
Kevin: From Nicole and me, thanks for tuning in. Go D-backs!
Nicole: We’ll see you tomorrow for the next update. Stay tuned!