Carly: You are listening to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we break down the Big Ten, one buck at a time. It is Saturday, October 24th, and welcome back to another episode of Buckeye Beat.
Doug: Hey everyone. I’m Doug, and I’m ready to dive into the numbers. We’ve got the full power rankings update for Ohio State today.
Carly: And I’m Carly. Before we get to the rankings, let’s look at the headlines shaking up Columbus right now. First up, ESPN’s coaching hot seat guide is out. They’re asking if Will Pope is in danger and whether Tom Izzo might finally hang up his whistle. But here is the big one for us: Gov. Doug DeWine just signed an executive order allowing 2022 athletes to play in 2026-27, bypassing the NCAA's new guidance that excluded those who already played four seasons.
Doug: That is massive. If Ohio State had any veteran players from that 2022 class sitting on the bench or transferring due to eligibility confusion, this order clears the path for them to return. It adds depth to a roster that has been thinning out.
Carly: Exactly. And speaking of depth, we have the transfer portal tracker updating weekly with one month left until tip-off. Plus, JPMorganChase has reached a lucrative jersey patch deal for all 36 teams, yielding nearly $17 million per year for the athletic program. So, we have financial windfalls and roster clarity. But what about the court? Today we are ranking Ohio State in the Big Ten context, breaking down their strengths and question marks, and giving you our realistic season outlook. Let’s get into it.
Carly: Okay, Segment One: Where does Ohio State rank in the Big Ten right now? We talked about an eighth-place finish recently, but with these new developments, do we stick with that projection?
Doug: I think we need to refine that number. When we looked at the floor and ceiling projections for every Big Ten team earlier this week, Ohio State was sandwiched between Purdue and Maryland in the middle tier. With the JPMorganChase deal, the resource gap between OSU and schools like Michigan or Indiana shrinks significantly. That $17 million annually isn't just cash; it’s recruiting leverage and facility upgrades.
Carly: Right, but resources don't win games in November. On the floor, we still have that point guard vacancy. Milan Momcilovic transferred, and we haven't seen a clear replacement emerge in preseason scrimmages yet. How does that impact their standing relative to teams with established guards like Iowa or Michigan State?
Doug: It keeps them firmly in the middle of the pack. In a conference this physical, not having a primary ball-handler who can initiate against pressure defenses is a liability. However, the state eligibility order helps mitigate some risk. If they can bring back even one experienced player from the 2022 cohort, that veteran presence could stabilize the rotation enough to keep them competitive.
Carly: So, my take is that we move Ohio State up slightly in the preseason power rankings. I’m putting them at seventh place. Why? Because the talent base is still high, and the financial boost gives them a safety net that allows for more aggressive experimentation in non-conference play.
Doug: I’ll respect that, but I’m sticking with eighth. Here’s why: the margin for error in the Big Ten is razor-thin. If that point guard situation remains fluid through November, they will drop games to teams with more structured offenses. Eighth place reflects the uncertainty of the backcourt, even with the external advantages.
Carly: Fair enough. Eighth place it is for the official record. But let’s be clear, this is a team that can beat anyone on any given night if their shooting clicks. The potential is there. Now, let’s talk about what makes them tick—and what might make them fold.
Doug: Let’s start with the strength. It’s spacing and three-point volume. Ohio State has always thrived when they can stretch the floor. With the JPMorganChase investment, they can afford to recruit specialists who shoot over 40 percent from deep. This creates room for drives and kicks, which is essential when your primary initiator is unproven.
Carly: But Doug, spacing only works if you have someone to create the initial separation. That brings me to the biggest question mark: rim protection and defensive rotations. Without Milan Momcilovic’s leadership in half-court sets, who is directing the switch? If the opposing point guard forces a breakdown in communication, can our big men recover quickly enough?
Doug: That is the critical tactical issue. If the defense struggles with switching pick-and-rolls, opponents will attack the seams. We saw glimpses of this last season. Against teams with elite guards, Ohio State’s interior defense got exposed because the perimeter defenders couldn’t hold their ground long enough for help to arrive.
Carly: And that’s where the 2022 athlete eligibility order becomes huge again. If they can slot in a veteran defender who understands the system, that solves the rotation problem partially. But if they are forced to rely on young legs, the fatigue factor in January could lead to sloppy shot selection late in games.
Doug: Precisely. Shot selection is going to be the metric that defines their early season. If they force contested twos because the offense stalls without a clear point guard, they lose. If they trust the spacing and hit open threes, they stay in the top half of the standings.
Carly: So, strength is offensive spacing and financial stability. Weakness is backcourt experience and defensive consistency. Got it. Now, let’s put it all together for the final verdict.
Doug: Let’s talk season outlook. We predicted ten wins and eighth place a few days ago. Does the landscape change enough to alter that? I think the win total stays similar, but the quality of those wins might improve if the point guard spot gets filled by a transfer or a promoted player who steps up.
Carly: I agree on the tenth win floor. Even with a shaky backcourt, Ohio State’s frontcourt talent usually guarantees a few easy points. But I think the ceiling is higher than we thought. If they navigate November without major injuries, that JPMorganChase advantage could allow them to go on a run in February.
Doug: February is where the fatigue sets in. If they have depth from that 2022 eligibility rule, they might actually close stronger than expected. I’m going to adjust my prediction slightly: eight wins in the Big Ten, but potentially eleven or twelve overall if non-conference goes well.
Carly: Eleven or twelve total wins. That feels right. It accounts for the volatility of the guard position but rewards the institutional support. Let’s look at the bracketology side of things. Dickie V mentioned Ohio State in his early-season radar. If they finish around .500 in the Big Ten, do they get an at-large bid or are they NIT-bound?
Doug: An at-large bid requires winning six or seven Big Ten games. Given the current trajectory, I see them hovering around five wins. That puts them in bubble territory for the NIT, unless they have a strong tournament performance later in the year. The key is avoiding a losing streak in conference play.
Carly: Bubble talk. Nasty stuff. But hey, that’s why we watch. One month to tip-off, and the storylines are piling up. Hot seats, executive orders, jersey patches, and a search for a point guard. What a time to be a Buckeye fan.
Doug: We covered the power rankings, the strengths and weaknesses, and our revised win projection. Thanks for tuning in to Buckeye Beat.
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Carly: Please subscribe, rate, and review us wherever you listen. It helps other fans find us. We’ll be back tomorrow with more Buckeye basketball analysis. For Doug and the entire Beatline team, I’m Carly. Go Bucks!