Megan: You’re listening to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we don’t just cover the game—we break it down until there’s nothing left but truth. I’m Megan, and this is your daily dose of college hoops reality.
Steve: And I’m Steve. It’s October 9th, 2026. We are in that weird, quiet window before the tip-offs start, but the rankings are already moving, and Iowa State is sitting right in the middle of a storm.
Megan: Here is what we are tackling today on the Beatline. First, we’re putting the Cyclones on the scale: Where do they actually rank in the Big 12 right now? Second, we’re looking at the roster math—specifically what Killyan Toure’s absence means for the paint. And third, we’re giving you a realistic season outlook and win projection for Ames.
Steve: It’s a power rankings episode, so expect some hard numbers and some tough love. Let’s get into it.
Megan: Alright, Steve, let’s start with the big picture. The ESPN public API data is live, and it tells us one specific thing about Iowa State right now: they are third in the Big 12 standings heading into the preseason.
Steve: Third in the Big 12. That’s a solid spot, but it’s also a dangerous spot because the gap between first and third can vanish with two bad losses. You’ve got Florida sitting at number one with Denzel Aberdeen potentially back, and then you’ve got a cluster of teams fighting for those top spots.
Megan: Right, and remember yesterday when Rachel and Dave were talking about BYU? They had Iowa State losing to No. 8 BYU by a small margin, like 23-20. But that was football talk. We’re here for basketball. In hoops, that kind of defensive struggle looks very different.
Steve: Exactly. And if you look at the Way-Too-Early Top 25 rankings, eligibility questions are plaguing the top tier. Florida has theirs, but other teams are shaking. Iowa State doesn’t have those immediate eligibility crises listed in the headlines, which gives them a slight stability edge over some of the chaos in the league.
Megan: So, being third in the conference without major eligibility baggage—is that enough to keep you in the national conversation? Or does the Big 12 depth make third place feel more like fifth?
Steve: I’d argue it feels like fourth or fifth in terms of pure talent ceiling, but second in terms of cohesion. The problem is the schedule. If you drop a game early, that third-place standing evaporates. The projections for every Big 12 team show that floor and ceiling are incredibly close this year.
Megan: Let’s talk about that floor. Yesterday, we heard predictions about Sullivan Schlimgen having a breakout game against BYU. If he steps up, does that push Iowa State into the top three nationally? Or is the Big 12 just too deep?
Steve: Sullivan Schlimgen stepping up is key, but it’s not a solo act. The recruiting rankings mention Beckham Black leading the class of high school talent, but for Iowa State, it’s about internal development. If Schlimgen holds his own in the post, you stay competitive. But staying competitive isn’t the same as dominating.
Megan: So, my take for Segment One: Iowa State is firmly in the Big 12 mix at third, but they are riding a wave of potential rather than established dominance. They need to protect that home court advantage if they want to keep that ranking.
Steve: Agreed. And that brings us to the elephant in the room. The biggest question mark for this team isn’t the guard play—it’s the frontcourt void.
Megan: Killyan Toure. We’ve seen the headline: surgery on his right shoulder, expected back in January. That’s a huge chunk of the season gone. How does that change the identity of this team from day one?
Steve: It changes everything. Toure provides rim protection and physicality in the paint. Without him for the first half of the season, Iowa State loses their primary anchor. This forces Sullivan Schlimgen into a starting center role much earlier and with more pressure than anyone anticipated.
Megan: And yesterday, we talked about Jaylen Raynor and Aiden Flora adjusting the offensive line because of Toure’s injury. In basketball terms, how does that translate? Does the offense become slower? More perimeter-dependent?
Steve: It becomes more perimeter-dependent. When you lose a traditional post presence, you have to space the floor better. You can’t rely on easy dunks off entry passes. You need ball movement, you need pick-and-roll efficiency, and you need shooters who can punish switches.
Megan: So, strength vs. weakness. Strength: the guard play and perimeter spacing seem ready to adapt. Weakness: the interior defense is vulnerable until January. Is that a fair assessment?
Steve: Fair, but let’s nuance it. The weakness isn’t just Toure out. It’s the lack of proven depth behind Schlimgen. If Schlimgen gets into foul trouble, who steps in? That’s the real anxiety for coaches in November and December.
Megan: That’s a scary thought for fans hoping for a deep run. And remember, the bracketology experts are already calling Florida the clear favorites because of Denzel Aberdeen’s re-addition. Iowa State is trying to build momentum while missing a key piece.
Steve: Exactly. Florida has its stars locked in. Iowa State has its stars waiting. That creates a psychological disadvantage in the preseason polls, even if the record ends up similar. People doubt what they haven’t seen yet.
Megan: So, Segment Two summary: The biggest strength is the guards’ ability to adapt, but the biggest question mark is the interior defense and whether Sullivan Schlimgen can carry the load alone for six months.
Steve: Six months. That’s a long time to ask a young player to be an All-Big 12 caliber center. But if he does it, he wins awards in January.
Megan: Let’s wrap it up with the outlook. Steve, give me the realistic season prediction. We’ve talked about rankings, injuries, and roster gaps. What’s the final grade for Iowa State in 2026-27?
Steve: Realistic? I’m projecting a .500 conference record with a push for the NCAA tournament, but not as a seeded favorite. Think a low seed. The Toure absence hurts their seeding potential.
Megan: Low seed? That’s a bit lower than some fans might hope. Do you think they’ll even crack the field if they stumble early against a team like BYU?
Steve: If they stumble early, yes. The Big 12 is brutal. But if Schlimgen stays healthy and the guards hit their marks, they scrape in. I see them winning roughly 20 games total, with maybe 10 or 11 in conference play.
Megan: Twenty wins. That’s a respectable season, but it’s not a championship run. It’s a foundation-building year. And that’s okay. Building for Toure’s return in January is the smart move.
Steve: Smart, yes. Boring? Maybe a little. But boring wins tournaments sometimes. Consistency beats flashiness in March.
Megan: Before we go, I want to say something real quick. If you enjoyed this breakdown—if learning about Toure’s timeline and Schlimgen’s role helped you understand the team better—that’s exactly why we do this. We keep the show free so everyone can hear it. If today’s episode was worth your time, please consider chipping in via the link in the episode description. It helps us keep these daily episodes coming without ads cluttering your feed. Thank you for supporting independent sports journalism.
Steve: Thanks for listening. We’ll see you tomorrow when we dive deeper into the Big 12 race.
Megan: For Steve, I’m Megan. Keep your eyes on the prize, and Go Cyclones!