Monica: Nijel Pack drops twenty, overtime hits, and the Sooners walk away with a 90-86 victory. Colorado’s season didn’t end in March—it ended in heartbreak on Wednesday night. But if you thought that was the final word on this team, think again. Welcome to the Beatline Podcast Network, where we break down the college sports landscape every single day.
Frank: That loss to Oklahoma wasn’t just another game; it was a mirror. It showed us exactly what Colorado is—and isn’t—going into the 2026-27 campaign. We’re here to rank them, dissect them, and figure out if they can actually compete in the Big 12.
Monica: Today, we are doing a full power-rankings deep dive. First, we’ll look at where Colorado stands in the division right now based on their 17-15 record. Second, we’ll tackle the massive roster shifts—the departure of Isaiah Johnson to Texas and the hiring of Derrick White. And third, we’ll give you our realistic win projection for the upcoming season. Let’s get into it.
Monica: Let’s start with the hard numbers. Colorado finished the regular season at 17-15 overall, which translated to a 7-12 mark in the Big 12. In a league that ESPN is projecting to be one of the toughest ever, where does that put them?
Frank: It puts them firmly in the basement tier. If you look at the projections for all sixteen Big 12 teams, Colorado is sitting near the bottom. A 7-12 conference record suggests they were a mid-to-lower-tier team before the postseason even started. They weren’t competitive against the elite squads like Kansas or Houston.
Monica: But Frank, let’s not ignore the resilience. They made it to the College Basketball Crown quarterfinals. That’s a significant achievement for a team with a losing conference record. Does that tournament run change how we view their ceiling?
Frank: It changes the narrative, but not the reality. The CBC is a great opportunity for exposure, but beating Oklahoma in regulation would have been a statement. Instead, Nijel Pack had to score six of his twenty points in overtime just to keep it close. They lost by four. That tells me they have moments, but they lack the consistency to close out games against top-tier SEC competition.
Monica: So, if we’re ranking them among the sixteen Big 12 teams, I’m putting them outside the top ten. Probably around twelfth or thirteenth. What’s your number?
Frank: I’m sticking with thirteenth. The gap between them and teams like West Virginia or Iowa State is too wide. Those teams have established identities. Colorado has a collection of talents, but no clear identity yet. Unless something drastic changes, they are fighting for respect, not for the championship.
Monica: Thirteenth. Ouch. But wait—we talked about this last week. Remember, on October 10th, we predicted Colorado would finish near the middle of the standings unless a key transfer arrived. Are we doubling down on that, or is the outlook darker now?
Frank: We need to update that prediction. Without a major transfer addition, they aren’t moving up to the middle. They’re staying at the bottom. The injury to their guard depth with Isaiah leaving hurts more than we initially thought. The "key transfer" window is closing fast with only a month until tip-off.
Monica: Let’s talk about those roster moves. Isaiah Johnson, who averaged 16.9 points and 3.0 assists, has committed to Texas. That is a huge blow. How do you replace a primary scoring guard like that in a high-powered conference?
Frank: You don’t replace him with one player. You replace him with a system shift. This is where the hiring of Derrick White becomes critical. White, the Celtics guard, was announced Tuesday as the president of basketball strategy for his alma mater. That’s not just a ceremonial title. He’s bringing NBA-level spacing and pick-and-roll IQ to the program.
Monica: I love that angle. So instead of looking for a new iso-scoring guard, Colorado is leaning into White’s expertise to improve decision-making across the floor. Does that help mitigate the loss of Johnson’s volume scoring?
Frank: It helps with efficiency, maybe. Johnson was a volume scorer. White brings strategic clarity. If the remaining guards can take better shots and move the ball without forcing issues, Colorado might actually be more dangerous than their stats suggest. But it’s a gamble. If the new guys don’t adapt, they have zero production from the backcourt.
Monica: And speaking of adaptation, remember our chat from October 11th? We discussed the defensive capabilities and how Isaac Wilson’s turnovers were a concern. With Johnson gone, who is handling the ball in crunch time?
Frank: That’s the question mark. Nijel Pack proved he can carry the load against Oklahoma, dropping twenty and hitting big shots in OT. But relying on one guy for everything is why they struggled against Texas Tech earlier. If Pack gets double-teamed, who steps up? The bench needs to provide stability, and right now, that’s an open question.
Monica: So the strength is clearly Nijel Pack’s ability to create his own shot and lead in overtime situations. The weakness is the lack of secondary creation and the uncertainty of who fills Johnson’s void. Is that a fair assessment?
Frank: Exactly. Pack is the engine. White is the navigator. But if the engine stalls, there’s no backup. They need someone else to emerge quickly in practice. The transition from Johnson to whoever takes his minutes will define their early-season performance.
Monica: It’s a high-wire act. One wrong step, and they’re stuck in the basement. Another, and they surprise everyone with efficient, smart play. Derrick White’s influence could be the tie-breaker here. Let’s see if he can translate NBA strategy to the collegiate level immediately.
Monica: Alright, let’s project the future. Based on the 17-15 record, the loss to Oklahoma, and the roster overhaul, what is a realistic win projection for Colorado in 2026-27?
Frank: I’m going to say they finish 14-18 overall. In the Big 12, that looks like 6-14. It’s not a disaster, but it’s not a success either. They’re scraping by. The coaching staff has a chance to turn things around with White’s input, but talent gaps in this conference are brutal.
Monica: Sixteen wins total. That means they need to win almost half their non-conference games to stay afloat. Do you think they can pull off any upsets in the Big 12?
Frank: Maybe against the lower-tier teams. If they play disciplined defense and limit turnovers, they can beat the teams below them. But against the top five? Unlikely. They lacked the rim protection and shot-blocking presence we saw last year. The defense will likely be a liability.
Monica: So, no Cinderella story here. Just a slow rebuild focused on smarter play rather than explosive scoring. It’s a different philosophy under White. Do you think the fans will buy into that slower, more methodical approach?
Frank: They have to. There’s no other choice. If they try to play fast and loose without Johnson, they’ll get exposed. They need to embrace the grind. It’s unsexy, but it’s the only way to survive in the Big 12 right now.
Monica: Grind it out. Smart play over flashy stats. That’s the takeaway. We’re projecting a sub-.500 conference season, but with a potential upset or two if Nijel Pack stays healthy and effective. It’s a tough road ahead for the Buffs.
Monica: To recap: Colorado enters the 2026-27 season ranked near the bottom of the Big 12, dealing with the loss of Isaiah Johnson but hoping Derrick White’s strategic mind can steer the ship. We’re predicting a 14-18 overall record, with a focus on efficiency over volume.
Frank: If you want to see if our predictions hold up, keep watching. But first, we need your help. Creating these daily breakdowns, tracking every transfer and ranking, takes real work and resources. If you’ve found value in our analysis, please consider supporting us directly via the link in the episode description. Your contribution keeps this network free and daily for all of you.
Monica: Thank you so much for listening, for subscribing, and for keeping the conversation going. Make sure to rate and review us wherever you listen, and share this episode with a fellow Buff fan who needs a reality check. Go Buffs!